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Originally Posted by David Johansen
There've been a couple times when D&D was really vulnerable and could have been replaced, the fall of TSR and the D&D fourth edition period.
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Your first example was before my time but I lived through the second. D&D 4e didn't lose to a non-D&D game. It lost to a different version of D&D. Even, then "losing" is kind of an overstatement. It still did pretty well sales-wise. D&D 5e, meanwhile, is amazingly popular though that popularity is somewhat tempered by the weak release schedule.
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I think you could construct a version of GURPS that would do well in that kind of a situation but it wouldn't be The Dungeon Fantasy rpg. You'd need a simpler version that wouldn't scare off the casual gamers. The format of DFRPG is right but the mechanics wouldn't suit the wider market. Those armor charts would cause some fright checks.
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I think coexistence is more tenable than competition. Barring WotC imploding and all it's staff getting abducted by aliens, it's pretty hard to imagine any game supplanting D&D in the near-future. I'd welcome a simplified version of DFRPG but I'm not sure it's necessarily a good thing. There's plenty of rules-lite dungeon games out there already competing in that niche. Further, what people consider "rule-lite" is highly subjective. A distinct subset of the people I hang around consider D&D 5e rules-heavy. Those that don't often like games with a bit more rules. 5e is sort of a middle ground where no one is happy but most people will agree to play.