THS / BioTech: Organlegger efficiency

[Anthony]

Optimal efficiency is that you remove the brain, use the body for whole body transplants, and then put the brain in a jar as part of a biocomputer.

[AlexanderHowl]

In reality, human organs probably start losing value steeply at TL9 and probably lose all value at TL10. At TL8, the transplants for human body is probably worth GURPS $500,000 (2020 $1,000,000). At TL9, the value probably drops to $50,000. At TL10, the value probably drops again to $5,000.

The main culprit is biofabrication. Cultured meat is probably going commercial in 2025 and cultured transplant organs are probably not far behind (probably 2030). If legitimate doctors can order a new heart for a patient for $20,000, then the only demand for organleggers will be criminals who cannot risk using legitimate doctors or emergency transplants. With the massive drop in demand comes a massive drop in prices.

Of course, that will not prevent organlegging in TL9, it just means that the primary demand will be for emergency transplants. However, anyone with health insurance will likely go for cultured transplant organs if they have a choice becauss of the lack of rejection. Even people who receive emergency transplants will likely get them replaced by cultured transplants as soon as possible.

[NineDaysDead]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

The main culprit is biofabrication. Cultured meat is probably going commercial in 2025 and cultured transplant organs are probably not far behind (probably 2030). If legitimate doctors can order a new heart for a patient for $20,000, then the only demand for organleggers will be criminals who cannot risk using legitimate doctors or emergency transplants. With the massive drop in demand comes a massive drop in prices.

Of course, that will not prevent organlegging in TL9, it just means that the primary demand will be for emergency transplants.

If you're going to implant a non-compatible organ, why not use an artificially grown non-compatible one? It won't have any diseases or a murder charge attached? And you can still have a custom one put in later.

[dcarson]

Originally Posted by NineDaysDead

If you're going to implant a non-compatible organ, why not use an artificially grown non-compatible one? It won't have any diseases or a murder charge attached? And you can still have a custom one put in later.

While not a clear cut as Type O blood I expect there are differences in how incompatible organs are so a hospital could have a couple of the common low rejection ones for emergencies.

[AlexanderHowl]

It depends on the cost of cultured organs. Perhaps hospitals will have a variety of emergency organs on hand, but the larger the number, the higher the overall cost. I think that a maximum of 10% of the production will be reserved for emergency transplant organ production, anything more would likely be inefficient, so there may be local shortages that organleggers would take advantage of.

[CeeDub]

Originally Posted by RyanW

Unless there is something metaphysical about the human brain, it seems unlikely to me that technology would be able to interface with a brain like that more easily than you can just simulate the necessary function in software.

So far, there is a lot the human brain can do that software simply can't do even remotely as well. That might change, or it might not.

Originally Posted by RyanW

And if something actually requires a brain, there's going to be a push to use the minimal amount of brain necessary (maybe a cluster of neurons grown on a chip) to feed whatever output is needed to a computer running the rest of the process.

Maybe a matured, adult brain with experiences is required. Sure, might take longer to grow and experience can be simulated with feelies, but some shady people might take shortcuts.

Not arguing against what you're saying, they are valid points. Just thinking out loud.

Originally Posted by Anthony

Optimal efficiency is that you remove the brain, use the body for whole body transplants, and then put the brain in a jar as part of a biocomputer.

That would raise a lot of questions when friends and family see the body of their missing loved one by chance, or when the government matches the face to a missing persons report.

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

The main culprit is biofabrication. Cultured meat is probably going commercial in 2025 and cultured transplant organs are probably not far behind (probably 2030). If legitimate doctors can order a new heart for a patient for $20,000, then the only demand for organleggers will be criminals who cannot risk using legitimate doctors or emergency transplants. With the massive drop in demand comes a massive drop in prices.

Of course, that will not prevent organlegging in TL9, it just means that the primary demand will be for emergency transplants. However, anyone with health insurance will likely go for cultured transplant organs if they have a choice becauss of the lack of rejection. Even people who receive emergency transplants will likely get them replaced by cultured transplants as soon as possible.

Good points. What about backwaters where culturing human tissue (or importing it) is illegal?

[NineDaysDead]

Originally Posted by CeeDub

Good points. What about backwaters where culturing human tissue (or importing it) is illegal?

More illegal than serial killing for profit? Because that's what organ legging is. If you're willing to break the law by organ legging, you're willing to break the law by importing/growing artificial organs.

[Imbicatus]

Originally Posted by NineDaysDead

More illegal than serial killing for profit? Because that's what organ legging is. If you're willing to break the law by organ legging, you're willing to break the law by importing/growing artificial organs.

Well, organ legging requires a lot less overhead than a black market artificial organ lab. You can harvest organs with a few hours of surgery in a single sterilized room almost anywhere. A lab capable of producing artificial or cultured organs is going to need a lot of space and power that is going to need to be in place for a much longer period of time, which is going to be much harder to hide from authorities.

The penalties will likely be worse for the organ legger than the black market lab, but that doesn’t mean that it’s still not in a better spot from a risk/reward analysis.

[ericthered]

Originally Posted by Imbicatus

Well, organ legging requires a lot less overhead than a black market artificial organ lab. You can harvest organs with a few hours of surgery in a single sterilized room almost anywhere. A lab capable of producing artificial or cultured organs is going to need a lot of space and power that is going to need to be in place for a much longer period of time, which is going to be much harder to hide from authorities.

The penalties will likely be worse for the organ legger than the black market lab, but that doesn’t mean that it’s still not in a better spot from a risk/reward analysis.

And the artificial organ lab is easier for the authorities to find and confiscate.


Simply importing the organs is an option though, and that's more competitive with organ-legging.

[Daigoro]

Originally Posted by ericthered

Simply importing the organs is an option though, and that's more competitive with organ-legging.

True, though again if supply via smuggling is limited somehow, then customers may not be able to get the organs, sizes or tissue match that they require. Organ-legging looks like it might be more responsive to demand.