Schwarzenegger 2020: Equal Opportunity to Govern

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by Donny Brook

You could just say that it was part of the 26th amendment in 1971 and no such candidate happened to come up until now.

That's not what I'm looking for.

The world is our world until recently, but even after changes started occurring, they were too subtle to change much in wider society, but mainly affected the sort of thing that PCs and their closest enemies and allies got up to. However, in the 2010s, the world of the setting and our world have diverged far enough so that I wanted to throw in an obvious bit of background weirdness, unrelated to the PCs and anyone they had dealings with, but still something that would register as 'weird' for the players.

This is very much meant to be current events in 2018-2019, not ancient history. And it's very much meant to be something that informed observers (i.e., PCs) will suspect has occult explanations, but, it also needs to be well-enough justified so that it's clear if investigated that the supernatural influence is limited in power, and, especially, how blatant it can be.

Basically, it's background color that serves to establish what kind of alternate world the setting is.

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by awesomenessofme1

Maybe, but no sane Republican would ever bank on winning California. The narrowest margin in a presidential race in the past 30 years was still 10 points.

My campaign does not explicitly require that Schwarzenegger win the election (which is still a considerable time away in the campaign), just that the Alien Space Bats, with very, very high Politics skill, could believe that he had a legitimate chance.

I assume that without winning his home state, he probably has no practical chance, but this wouldn't even be a possibility unless he truly believed he could win California.

And note that there is a very good chance that the presidential race involving alt-Schwarzenegger might evolve into something entirely and completely different from what is the case in our real world. For one thing, there might even be a three-way race, like in 1992.

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by Icelander

Basically, it's background color that serves to establish what kind of alternate world the setting is.

The simplest answer is "everyone just ignored the problem". Our courts are prone to punting on political problems anyway.

[ericthered]

Today? You need one party to push it hard and another party to see an advantage to be taken. You also need to defuse any pressing objections. So public fears about immigration need to be nipped in the bud. You need the not-Arnold party to push the issue, and you need Arnold to first establish front runner status and then pull his party along against the objections of the natural opponents and in-party rivals who see this as eroding their own power.

Even then, the oppose the other party attitude may trip things up. The whole process works better the earlier you can start it.

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by ericthered

Today? You need one party to push it hard and another party to see an advantage to be taken. You also need to defuse any pressing objections. So public fears about immigration need to be nipped in the bud. You need the not-Arnold party to push the issue, and you need Arnold to first establish front runner status and then pull his party along against the objections of the natural opponents and in-party rivals who see this as eroding their own power.

Even then, the oppose the other party attitude may trip things up. The whole process works better the earlier you can start it.

It's been ongoing since 2005, at least, but only from 2008-2012, thereabouts, has Schwarzenegger had truly notable Alien Space Bat influence available to him that was not available in our world. By 2015, his (and his camp's) effective skill checks for the purposes of Politics, Propaganda and Public Speaking would have been at about +5 compared to our world.

By the end of 2018 (where I am now in play), Schwarzenegger can field Intuitive Statesman 3-4, Charisma 4-5, Status 5-6 and a Reputation that comes out noticeably in the Advantage column. His Politics and Public Speaking skills are at around 20 and he has a Propaganda team operating somewhere in the mid-20s. He can also muster a +5/-5 to any absolutely vital contest of skill.

In real-world terms, he'll come across way better than any other candidate in person and on TV. But, winning Quick Contests of Skill isn't enough to win an election, it's a marathon, not a sprint. Also, realistically, a lot of voters have pre-determined Reactions.

[Boomerang]

If GURPS version Schwarzenegger has such high influencing skills he could con both major parties into amending the constitution. Behind closed doors he promises to lead both parties, but then runs as an independent at the eleventh hour.

[Donny Brook]

Originally Posted by Icelander

That's not what I'm looking for.

The world is our world until recently, but even after changes started occurring, they were too subtle to change much in wider society, but mainly affected the sort of thing that PCs and their closest enemies and allies got up to. However, in the 2010s, the world of the setting and our world have diverged far enough so that I wanted to throw in an obvious bit of background weirdness, unrelated to the PCs and anyone they had dealings with, but still something that would register as 'weird' for the players.

This is very much meant to be current events in 2018-2019, not ancient history. And it's very much meant to be something that informed observers (i.e., PCs) will suspect has occult explanations, but, it also needs to be well-enough justified so that it's clear if investigated that the supernatural influence is limited in power, and, especially, how blatant it can be.

Basically, it's background color that serves to establish what kind of alternate world the setting is.

Even if there were broad willingness to make a constittutional change, the priority that state legislatures put or don't put on it will dictate the timeline.

Another thing to bear in mind is that an opponent could be the initiator of a court case to bar Arnie if it was believed he does not meet the criteria. If ultimately it doesn't matter whether he wins, you could implement your story but simply have his candidacy voided by a court when it has served your purpose.

[RyanW]

It occurs to me that the term "natural born citizen" isn't really defined. McCain's citizenship wasn't clear until he was about a year old, when a law was passed that explicitly and retroactively made all children born to American citizens overseas, so there is precedent for retroactively making someone a natural born citizen. If they really wanted to, Congress might be able to declare that the clause be read to allow anyone not born by caesarean.

In any event, it's more or less up to Congress and state election commissions to act on issues of presidential qualifications, so if they decline there isn't much to stop it. Courts have declared that no individual has standing to bring such a case.

[David Johnston2]

In order to pass such an amendment what you need is for both the Democrats and the Republicans to have a foreign born candidate that they get super-invested in while thinking the other party's guy can't win.

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by RyanW

It occurs to me that the term "natural born citizen" isn't really defined.

Well, as is generally the case, it's defined by courts.

Originally Posted by RyanW

McCain's citizenship wasn't clear until he was about a year old, when a law was passed that explicitly and retroactively made all children born to American citizens overseas, so there is precedent for retroactively making someone a natural born citizen. If they really wanted to, Congress might be able to declare that the clause be read to allow anyone not born by caesarean.

Congress can indeed pass a law that would purport to define 'natural-born citizen' and/or define who is eligible for the Presidency. If they did, the courts would then rule on the constitutionality of that statue (because someone would inevitably challenge it).

My feeling is that an interpretation that excluded anyone born by Caesarean would be hard to defend. It seems clear that it violates the existing precedent of how the 5th and 14th Amendment have been interpreted for decades to provide 'Equal Protection' under the law.

However, if Congress passed an Equal Opportunity to Govern statue that essentially removed the distinction between 'natural-born citizen' and 'citizen', I'm far from convinced that courts would necessarily strike it down. As are, I note, several constitutional scholars, mostly because they feel courts would hesitate to rule based on the political-question doctrine.

Originally Posted by RyanW

In any event, it's more or less up to Congress and state election commissions to act on issues of presidential qualifications, so if they decline there isn't much to stop it. Courts have declared that no individual has standing to bring such a case.

Surely a candidate would have standing, either one prevented from putting his name on the ballot or an opponent wishing to challenge such ballots if it is allowed.

One option for my Alien Space Bats would be to find someone, in the period between 2011-2018, to run for President 2012 or 2016 with the explicit purpose of getting a case in front of a court in order to yield a precedent that Schwarzenegger could use when it had been established.

For example, I'm trying to determine what Ted Cruz would have needed to do in 2016 for there to have been a legal challenge to his candidacy. Also, if an appeal in such a case would automatically be void because the election is over, or if the Supreme Court could theoretically elect to hear it because of the potential for precedent.

Obviously, under ordinary circumstances they wouldn't, because of the political-question doctrine and a general, sensible reluctance to seek out controversy, but as noted before, influencing a small number of judges with ASB methods is exponentially easier than influencing a majority of Congress (let alone a supermajority and all the state legislators needed).