Radical Alternatives: How SHOULD Size and Speed/Range Affect Chance to Hit?

[vicky_molokh]

Originally Posted by Eukie

In GURPS-y terms, this is broadly min(Skill + modifiers - SM, MOA, X+Y)+SM, where X is the lead estimation error and Y is the erratic target error. Conveniently, the physical effects this models are such that X is calculated using the logarithm of target speed and projectile time of flight: in other words, the standard Speed modifiers can be used in a calculation with this level of detail.

That looks like a very promising direction, but I feel confused by the function as currently posted: SM being included as a negative in one of the candidates, but as a positive outside, and the fact that X+Y seems completely non-interacting with skill level (shouldn't skilled shooters be better at estimating lead)?

Also, the derivation of Y, erratic target error, is of high interest for any combat system.