Reality-testing / Playtesting the Guns Default . . .

[DouglasCole]

Originally Posted by vicky_molokh

Greetings, all!

No modifier for a range that isn't precisely known (very approximately 15 metres or yards)

Given you're trying to hit "on the paper," it seems, knowing that not only is the target basically 15 yds away but that it's not changing from shot to shot means that you definitely should get +2 or +3. This is because it's a static target not changing at all from shot to shot. You can take all of your knowledge on where the last shot hit and compensate. This is a big deal.

-1 (possibly) from poor lighting (definitely worse than a 120W bulb at 1 yard).

Were you shooting at a black-on-white or other high-contrast target?

+2 for Acc of a Glock, possibly another +1 for an extra second (but I doubt it).
+1 for AoA.

And +1 for Braced if you were using two hands.

-5 (approximately) for a Distance of about 15 yards.
-5 for shooting the target's head

Total numbers: base skill 5 plus +4 from various TDMs, +3 for Aimed AoA, and -10 for combined distance and target size, ±1 for maybe lighting and/or maybe an extra second. That gives a total modified roll against 2±1. Which means hitting should be more-or-less impossible.

The change to getting the TDM for known, invariant range and Braced, plus maybe the extra elimination of the -1 for lighting (which you include above) gives an extra +4, which means a six-inch group or so will be obtained with a skill of 6-7, maybe 6-8. That's a head shot 1/10 to 1/4 of the time.

Alas, I don't have precise percentages of hits, but neither I nor anybody else seemed to find this an impossible task - usually between half and all of the bullets hit.
Thanks in advance!

Hit the head, or hit the paper. Because given the mods above, you'd be on a man-sized target with a net skill of as much as 13.

You might also want to check out On Target and Dodge This, which both talk about shooting guns in the real-world, and On Target talks about a different way to look at Aim that might better suit what you were doing.

Personally, I've found that on-the-range TDMs tend to be in the +8 to +10 range when all is said and done. So much is known and static that in a real gunfight is not.

If you look at it that way, your base skill of 5 gets +8 to +10 from the environment, and another +4 for Acc, AoA/Braced. Less -10 for size and distance. That's positive skill and mods of 17-19, -10 for range and size, and you'd expecte to hit 15-35% of the time to the head, and you'll be "on paper," meaning in a torso-sized zone with a net skill of 12-14, which is a 75-90% hit rate. Toss in that extra second, and you're nearly always on paper, and hitting 25-50% of the time to the head.