[Basic] Arrow in the Eye

[Ulzgoroth]

Originally Posted by Tomsdad

Cool (my probability knowledge is rusty, is three consecutive 50% chances just a matter of 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5, and how does it get effected by having a finite number of rolls to do it in)

To get three successes at 50% in three trials is 0.5^3. To figure out how long a run will go before getting three consecutive successes is really annoying to puzzle out (and mixing in the 'can stop immediately on a critical doesn't make it less so). To the point that I gave up and resorted to simulations before, and that's what I'll turn to again when I have time to dust them off.

The 1/8th chance, though, is the chance that the bleeding will stop before you actually lose any HP, or the chance that after any bleeding check on which you lose HP, you will not lose any more. Except actually that's a little better than 1/8 because critical.