Transhuman Space 2110, 2130, 2200

[johndallman]

I'm starting to think about a THS campaign to run, someday. But I have this inability to run a setting "straight", I always want to do it differently in some way. An obvious way for THS is to move a little way into the future, and thinking about that led me to an idea about SF in general.

What you expect to happen is biased by your view of what's wrong now.

So I'm interested to know what people think are the problems in 2100 that may yield to socially acceptable technological developments, and if there would be enough motive/budget to attack those problems. Let's stay off improved uploading, OK? The sticky thread is just over that way.

An obvious one is faster computers and better AI design making AIs smarter and cheaper. What happens then?

[jalapeno_dude]

Probably not what you're looking for, but Broken Dreams p. 12 mentions a "Countdown to the Singularity" clock--as of January 1st, 2100 the predicted date is March 10th, 2116 at 3:32 AM GMT. What if the date turns out to be correct? (Start the campaign at 3:30 AM, see what happens...)

See Transhuman Space p. 25 for a little more on THS and the singularity.

[johndallman]

"Singularity? Wow, that's just so 20th century. It was pre-millennial tension, based on the ideas that things which were easy then would stay easy; that people wouldn't learn to adapt faster, and that raw MIPS have much to do with intelligence. All wrong."

"Now, if you have a solution for the last, I know some people who'd be very interested, but I should warn you, they are currently very jaded with snake-oil salesmen."

Seriously, unless you have a really convincing story as to why the kind of step change that would produce a singularity would happen in THS, I'm going to assume that it won't.

The idea that it could be predicted 16 years in advance to the half-hour is ... about as plausible as the Jehovah's Witnesses claim that the world has already ended, but nobody has noticed.

[RogerBW]

Side note first: I regard the Singularity as even more singularity-like than people give it credit for. To wit: from the inside, it just seems like more development along the same lines as before. It's only to people on the outside that it looks like a step change into incomprehensibility. As far as somebody from 1200AD looking through a futurescope is concerned, the singularity has already happened.

Anyway. AIs are gradually getting more intelligent. (And sarcastic.) And places that regard biohumanity as important tend to be places that are backward in other cultural respects as well. I see them gradually morphing into "proto-human sanctuaries" for the remaining people who'd rather die than upload (or regard the two as equivalent) Their children will probably leave, but medicine will keep them going for quite a while.

More intelligent AIs in greater numbers can outcompete biohumans in many niches. Why bother to put a human body on a vacuum cleaner ship when you can put a techspider there instead? Most humans upload to get back on an equal footing, or head for a sanctuary. The distinction between "SAI" and "uploaded human" becomes a matter of personality quirks and personal choice.

A key date: the first time two (or more) uploaded humans choose to bring an offspring into existence by purely digital means.

There have been hints at an AIs-vs-biohumans war. Frankly I don't see it lasting very long.

[Flyndaran]

Uploaded humans would still be limited by their "natural" intelligence, and handicaps from needing sleep, to getting bored, imperfect memory, etc.
A human level A.I. is vastly superior to an uploaded human.

[RogerBW]

Originally Posted by Flyndaran

Uploaded humans would still be limited by their "natural" intelligence, and handicaps from needing sleep, to getting bored, imperfect memory, etc.
A human level A.I. is vastly superior to an uploaded human.

My view: all those drawbacks are just human habits. An uploaded human still expects to forget things, to feel tired and sleep, to get bored faster than an SAI; eventually he'll grow out of those traits.

[Flyndaran]

Originally Posted by RogerBW

My view: all those drawbacks are just human habits. An uploaded human still expects to forget things, to feel tired and sleep, to get bored faster than an SAI; eventually he'll grow out of those traits.

That goes against all that is known of human biology which is what is modeled so perfectly when uploaded.

Edit: perfectly ok for your games, but THS is geared as a more realistic setting than most Sci Fi.

[jeff_wilson]

Originally Posted by Flyndaran

That goes against all that is known of human biology which is what is modeled so perfectly when uploaded.

Edit: perfectly ok for your games, but THS is geared as a more realistic setting than most Sci Fi.

TS already canonically includes modeling of brainbugs and other neurology-altering treatments in the same simulation spaces as Ghosts. This allows a gradual transition to virtual neurons that are maintained without sleep-like downtime, et al.

[Flyndaran]

Originally Posted by jeff_wilson

TS already canonically includes modeling of brainbugs and other neurology-altering treatments in the same simulation spaces as Ghosts. This allows a gradual transition to virtual neurons that are maintained without sleep-like downtime, et al.

That really depends on what you consider sleep is and what it does. Since the real world hasn't answered that, I guess nearly any game answer is like another.
But by definition "uploaded" brains are virtual neurons.

[David Johnston2]

Originally Posted by Flyndaran

That goes against all that is known of human biology which is what is modeled so perfectly when uploaded.
i.

Eventually they'll lose interest in modelling their human parent and move on.