Ritual Paths: Energy Accumulation Summary

[seasong]

The following reference is for Monster Hunters' ritual path magic. It is aimed at GMs: It gives a scope for the usual energy levels players and enemies are likely to achieve, given a particular skill level, which the GM can use as a guide when planning. Players may find it useful for estimating how risky a given spell will be, although no results are guaranteed :-).

(There is also a way to use this information to compress off-screen casting to a single roll at the end.)

This list uses final skill level. Adepts raise energy faster and are less prone to reduced skill level than non-adepts, but these summaries apply to both equally well. The format looks like this:

Skill: average energy for each roll (total so far and cumulative risk of critical failure at the 5% and 10% mark).

Note that for skill 8 or less, it's not worth casting unless you're gonna die anyway. You average one energy per accumulation roll, and your risk goes up fast. So I won't be listing that, because friends don't let friends ritual cast at skill 8 or less.

9: 1.3, 1.3, 1.1 (3.7 at 5.5%), 1.1, 1.1, 1.1 (7.1 at 10.6%).
10: 1.6, 1.6, 1.3 (4.4 at 5.5%), 1.3, 1.3, 1.1 (8.2 at 10.6%).
11: 11: 1.9, 1.9, 1.6 (5.4 at 5.5%), 1.6, 1.6, 1.3 (9.9 at 10.7%).
12: 12: 2.4, 2.4, 1.9 (6.7 at 5.5%), 1.9, 1.9, 1.6 (12.1 at 10.7%).
13: 3.1, 3.1, 2.4 (8.6 at 5.5%), 2.4, 2.4, 1.9 (15.3 at 10.7%). Mana reserve 3.
14: 3.8, 3.8, 3.1 (10.7 at 5.5%), 3.1, 3.1, 2.4 (19.3 at 10.7%). Mana reserve 6.
15: 4.6, 4.6, 3.8 (13 at 5.5%), 3.8, 3.8, 3.1 (23.7 at 10.7%). Mana reserve 9. Max starting Sage.
16: 5.6, 5.6, 4.6, 4.6 (20.4 at 4.6%), 4.6, 4.6, 3.8 (32.6 at 9.8%). Mana reserve 12.
17: 6.5, 6.5, 5.6, 5.6, 5.6, 4.6 (34.4 at 4.3%), 4.6, 4.6, 3.8 (47.4 at 9.5%). Mana reserve 15. Max starting Witch.
18: 7.5, 7.5, 6.5, 6.5, 6.5, 5.6, 5.6, 5.6, 4.6 (55.9 at 5.6%), 4.6, 4.6, 3.8 (68.8 at 10.7%). Mana reserve 18.
19: 8.5, 8.5, 7.5, 7.5, 7.5, 6.5, 6.5, 6.5, 5.6, 5.6, 5.6 (75.8 at 5.0%), 4.6, 4.6, 4.6 (89.6 at 10.2%). Mana reserve 21.

Above 19, I am only listing summary information, because there are too many rolls :-).

20: 11 rolls (86.5 at 5.0%); 16 rolls (112.5 at 9.6%). Mana reserve 24.
21: 11 rolls (97.5 at 5.0%); 18 rolls (138.4 at 9.1%). Mana reserve 27.
22: 11 rolls (108.5 at 5.0%); 21 rolls (171.9 at 10.3%). Mana reserve 30.
23: 11 rolls (119.5 at 5.0%); 23 rolls (203.8 at 9.8%). Mana reserve 33.

Above skill 23, it is always 11 and 23 rolls for 5% and 9.8% cumulative risk of critical failure (darn those 18s!). The two cumulative energy amounts are:

24: 130.5, 226.5. Mana reserve 36.
25: 141.5, 249.5. Mana reserve 39.
26: 152.5, 272.5. Mana reserve 42.
27: 163.5, 295.5. Mana reserve 45.
28: 174.5, 318.5. Mana reserve 48.
29: 185.3, 341.3. Mana reserve 51.
30: 196, 364. Mana reserve 54.
31: 206.7, 386.7. Mana reserve 57.
32: 217.4, 409.4. Mana reserve 60.
3: 228.4, 432.1. Mana reserve 63.
34: 239.4, 454.8. Mana reserve 66.
35: 250.4, 477.5. Mana reserve 69.
36: 261.4, 500.2. Mana reserve 72.
37: 272.4, 523.2. Mana reserve 75.
38: 283.4, 546.2. Mana reserve 78.
39: 294.4, 569.2. Mana reserve 81.
40: 305.4, 592.2. Mana reserve 84.

And since 40 covers a skill of 30 and +10 in bonuses, I'll stop there :-)

Off-Screen Casting
You can use this as the basis for a cut-to-the-chase roll for enemy casters who are casting "off-screen." Instead of rolling a dozen times, make one roll, with the following considerations:

1. Decide what level of risk the caster finds acceptable (5% or 10%).
2. Find the average energy for the caster's skill level at that level of risk, and the typical number of rolls.
3. Determine if the caster is trying for a set energy level and just wants to shave down the time, or if the caster is trying for as much energy as possible within that risk level.
4. Roll against skill 10, with the following special rules:

At 5% risk, the caster critically fails on a 15 or worse. At 10% risk, on a 14 or worse. A critical failure always occurs at the mid-point in the average number of rituals, because we're trying to streamline here.

If trying to shave down the total time, reduce the total number of accumulation attempts by half the margin of success; increase the number by the margin of failure.

If trying to max out the energy, add +10% to the energy per margin of success, or subtract -10% to the energy per margin of failure.

These rules are not a perfect match to the results you would get if you actually rolled the dice, but they're close enough for "off-screen" casting.

[PK]

Thanks, Thomas!

(And to avoid confusing everyone else who's reading this, I've seen these calculations before. They're a significant part of why Thomas is listed as the Master of Magic in the credits for MH1!)

Your calculations were instrumental for the Quick-and-Dirty Charm Creation rules that will be found in MH4: Sidekicks. (Why there? Because the magician template absolutely relies on charms to be effective.) I took a simpler approach on the energy levels themselves, but because it was for charms, I took a more complex approach to the results. Basically, one roll to answer the question, "No quirks, one quirk, two, three, or a critical failure?" And even the crit gets some variety -- after all, you might crit after accumulating some energy, or after accumulating all of it, right?

(For your system here, I think I might say that for a 5% chance, rolling 11-12 is one quirk, 13 is two, and 14 is three. For a 10% chance, it becomes 11 = 1, 12 = 2, and 13 = 3. That seems fair. As long as something accounts for quirks in casting -- they actually pop up pretty often when you've got a lot of rolls, and they're part of what keeps the system balanced.)

[seasong]

Originally Posted by Rev. Pee Kitty

I took a simpler approach on the energy levels themselves, but because it was for charms, I took a more complex approach to the results. Basically, one roll to answer the question, "No quirks, one quirk, two, three, or a critical failure?" And even the crit gets some variety -- after all, you might crit after accumulating some energy, or after accumulating all of it, right?

And... now I can't wait until MH4.

[PK]

Originally Posted by seasong

And... now I can't wait until MH4.

True. Check your email. :)

[SCAR]

Originally Posted by Rev. Pee Kitty

True. Check your email. :)

Now that's really evil! (for the rest of us!)

[seasong]

Doh.

I lost access to the original work some time ago, so this post was an attempt to re-create my work on the probabilities, taking into account the changes made from the pre-published work to the post-published work...

And on this new version, I goofed (oh yeah, you do get an energy point on non-critical failures...).

I'm at work and unable to re-run the calculations now, but I should have time this evening, and I will fix the original post then. Note that this doesn't have a massive impact except at the very low end - skill 10-11 should have more energy, but skill 12+ should see only small improvements, and skill 15+ (Sage and Witch level) shouldn't change much at all.

So embarrassed...

[seasong]

Okay, the numbers should be correct now.

Also: He posted that (and emailed me) while I was on my way to work - I couldn't look at it until this evening. And he sent me the relevant part with a slice of non-relevant section hinting at the rest of the book.

Rev. Pee Kitty is a sadist. Simple fact.

[PK]

Speaking of energy accumulation, Thomas sent me this HTML file last week which I almost immediately put up on MyGURPS as a resource:

http://www.mygurps.com/accumulator.html

It's a JavaScript app that can quickly calculate the results of dozens of rituals in under a second, as long as you're basing it on how many accumulation rolls you attempt (as opposed to, say, "I roll until I get X energy").

Hopefully some of you will find this useful!

(And on a quasi-related note, everyone thank Thomas for catching a fundamental issue with my "quick-n-dirty" charm creation rules. Thanks to him, the version that you'll see in MH4 will be far more accurate and just as simple: one or two rolls per charm at most.)

[Christopher R. Rice]

Originally Posted by Rev. Pee Kitty

Speaking of energy accumulation, Thomas sent me this HTML file last week which I almost immediately put up on MyGURPS as a resource:

http://www.mygurps.com/accumulator.html

It's a JavaScript app that can quickly calculate the results of dozens of rituals in under a second, as long as you're basing it on how many accumulation rolls you attempt (as opposed to, say, "I roll until I get X energy").

Hopefully some of you will find this useful!

(And on a quasi-related note, everyone thank Thomas for catching a fundamental issue with my "quick-n-dirty" charm creation rules. Thanks to him, the version that you'll see in MH4 will be far more accurate and just as simple: one or two rolls per charm at most.)

I was looking at this the other day. Nice :)

Thanks Mr. Weigel, I'm sure my players will appreciate that.

Ghostdancer

[seasong]

Originally Posted by Rev. Pee Kitty

...as long as you're basing it on how many accumulation rolls you attempt (as opposed to, say, "I roll until I get X energy").

That's an excellent point. It might be more useful if it took a target energy...