Surprise

[Ulzgoroth]

Originally Posted by dgrm4

Is this your take on it or something from Gurps rules?

As of Tactical Shooting (p21), it's RAW, though he didn't mention that if the ambusher looses badly enough the surprise can be the other way.

[dgrm4]

Originally Posted by Ulzgoroth

As of Tactical Shooting (p21), it's RAW, though he didn't mention that if the ambusher looses badly enough the surprise can be the other way.

I am still not agreeing with this rule.

1. I find it very hard to believe that the Ambushers may be surprised, UNLESS a monster/alien that they were NOT expecting is part of the group they are trying to ambush.

2. Even without Combat Reflexes, if you are searching for another group and expect a fight could happen at anytime, then I still don't think you are going to freeze, unless again something crazy like a monster/alien is part of the group that is ambushing your team.

[Dinadon]

Originally Posted by dgrm4

I am still not agreeing with this rule.

1. I find it very hard to believe that the Ambushers may be surprised, UNLESS a monster/alien that they were NOT expecting is part of the group they are trying to ambush.

An ambusher is unlikely to be able to keep that close an eye on their target without spooking them. You're also assuming the ambushers have perfect information. If the squad you can see is walking straight into your trap, but you haven't seen their supporting squad moving through cover, then a counter ambush isn't unlikely. Indeed, royally botching the roll for your ambush is a reasonable enough excuse to assume that your opponents have successfully spotted your ambush and taken appropriate measures to nullify it. Which could mean simply avoiding it, or calling in an air strike to deal with the threat.

Also note time-scale. Even in a prepared position, you're not going to be set up unless you've spotted a potential target, and you're spotting point could be quite far away. This gives several minutes from set-up to execution where you want the target to move along a particular path. If they don't then you're ambush isn't going to work so well.

In other words in isn't a case of roll when they enter ambush zone, but roll when you set up. I think you're assuming that the roll is made when the targets enter the ambush zone, which I think is far too late as that is not a fair point. A fair point would the point where two opposing squads of equal skill have a 50/50 chance of it going either way. That is not the point where a target is about to enter you're ambush zone.

2. Even without Combat Reflexes, if you are searching for another group and expect a fight could happen at anytime, then I still don't think you are going to freeze, unless again something crazy like a monster/alien is part of the group that is ambushing your team.

This is why partial surprise has an incremental bonus, and nothing stops you from doing a dodge and drop when the bullets start flying. However, you do need to work out were the fire is coming from, and this will take a few seconds.

[Ulzgoroth]

Originally Posted by dgrm4

I am still not agreeing with this rule.

1. I find it very hard to believe that the Ambushers may be surprised, UNLESS a monster/alien that they were NOT expecting is part of the group they are trying to ambush.

Even if the ambushees detect the ambush and attack into it without warning before it springs? Pretty sure that's what the 'your ambush failed badly' scenario represents. (And you've got to fail pretty badly to get there.)

Originally Posted by dgrm4

2. Even without Combat Reflexes, if you are searching for another group and expect a fight could happen at anytime, then I still don't think you are going to freeze, unless again something crazy like a monster/alien is part of the group that is ambushing your team.

You're not going to freeze: freezing is the 1d seconds you lose when you're totally surprised before you even get to start trying to break out of mental stun (or even use an active defense, if I'm reading it right). Combat reflexes guarantees that that doesn't ever happen to you.

Mental Stun isn't freezing. For an intelligent creature with combat reflexes, it generally means 'you need to take 1 second to get a handle on what's going on here'.

Originally Posted by Dinadon

In other words in isn't a case of roll when they enter ambush zone, but roll when you set up. I think you're assuming that the roll is made when the targets enter the ambush zone, which I think is far too late as that is not a fair point. A fair point would the point where two opposing squads of equal skill have a 50/50 chance of it going either way. That is not the point where a target is about to enter you're ambush zone.

Not compatible with the rules in Tactical Shooting...and ambush is not a symmetric situation. Two opposing squads of equal skill (in whichever of the 3-4 applicable traits they're best at) are 50-50 between the ambush working and neither side being surprised. The intended victims need to win by a large margin for things to actually be in their favor.

[jeff_wilson]

Originally Posted by Ulzgoroth

You're not going to freeze: freezing is the 1d seconds you lose when you're totally surprised before you even get to start trying to break out of mental stun (or even use an active defense, if I'm reading it right).

B364, "Do Nothing" says Do Nothing is what you do when you're mentally stunned, and still lets you attempt active defenses at -4. B[3]93, "Total Surprise" confirms people frozen under total surprise are mentally stunned and must take the Do Nothing maneuver.

EDIT: page number typo corrected.

[Ulzgoroth]

Originally Posted by jeff_wilson

B364, "Do Nothing" says Do Nothing is what you do when you're mentally stunned, and still lets you attempt active defenses at -4. B493, "Total Surprise" confirms people frozen under total surprise are mentally stunned and must take the Do Nothing maneuver.

You mean 393, I think, but other than that you're quite right. I'm not sure how I managed to misread that the way I did.

[Phoenix_Dragon]

Originally Posted by dgrm4

1. I find it very hard to believe that the Ambushers may be surprised, UNLESS a monster/alien that they were NOT expecting is part of the group they are trying to ambush.

Part of the point of the typical ambush-response drills (Basically, charge and OVERWHELMING FIREPOWER) is to do exactly that. It apparently can work quite well, too.

Mind you, the ambushees wining the contest by that much likely represents them seeing the ambushers before the ambush is started. Suddenly coming under heavy fire when you're expecting to be the one ambushing is certainly enough of a drastic change in plans to warrant surprise.

2. Even without Combat Reflexes, if you are searching for another group and expect a fight could happen at anytime, then I still don't think you are going to freeze, unless again something crazy like a monster/alien is part of the group that is ambushing your team.

Firefights are crazy and often scary situations, with lots of stuff happening all over the place. When stuff starts to happen, it's quite easy to get lost for a moment or two trying to take in the details and figure out "What the hell is going on?" Even the full-on freeze could simply be trying to figure out what's going on (Been there...).

That said, a group that is actively hunting down another group and expecting contact at any moment seems like it would likely be in the Focused (Orange) state of alertness. Individuals moving and taking Wait maneuvers to cover potential threats. For the game mechanics, situational awareness is reduced due to focusing on individual points of potential threat, but as a result, if that threat does present itself where expected, the individual covering it is immune to partial surprise (And with a Wait, can immediately shoot at it). This should hopefully give the rest of the team time to overcome the moment of mental stun as they take in the new threat. (At least, that's how my reading of the Tactical Shooting rules goes. I really like them!)

[Langy]

Originally Posted by dgrm4

1. I find it very hard to believe that the Ambushers may be surprised, UNLESS a monster/alien that they were NOT expecting is part of the group they are trying to ambush.

It's called a counter-ambush. Instead of the ambushers catching the other guys unawares, the prospective ambushees notice ambush ahead of time, plan accordingly, and then ambush the original ambushers. It would be unrealistic to not have this as a possibility.

Now if the NPC's had seen them through the 2nd Story window and had not come through the front door but had done something else. Rear door, dive through windows, up the outside and start firefight from stairwell etc...would you still say that there would not be a way the Ambush could turn on the PC's? Just curious?

Not to mention 'lobbed several grenades through the windows'.

[Kromm]

The source of confusion seems to be that you adjudicated how the situation would unfold before you ever rolled the dice, in your mind at least. You had the lead merc walk in as if he had already fallen for an ambush, and only then did you roll for it. There's nothing wrong with assessing surprise to one side or the other on the basis of what the players say the PCs are doing and what you've decided the NPCs would do – that's a big part of roleplaying, and one of many things that differentiates RPGs from war games! But that mode of adjudication has an either/or relationship with rolling dice for the situation. You don't do both.

Imagine talking out the interaction between a punk and an action hero for a dozen lines of dialogue, during which time you roleplay the punk as backing down, using submissive language, and so forth. Then the hero rolls Intimidation vs. the punk's Will . . . and loses badly. Would you have the punk suddenly not be scared? Well, no – as the GM, you've already decided that he'd be scared and you've portrayed things that way. You've sent the player the message, "You roleplayed this encounter so well that, since you have the right skills, I'm giving this one to you." It would be a *** to roll the dice and have the punk laugh it off.

Consider an attempt to avoid guards. The players tell you their strategy and you let the PCs keep moving in, getting past guards, and apparently succeeding. Then, when they're at the objective, you have them roll Stealth vs. Perception . . . and they lose badly. Would you retcon the whole situation to have the guards cut them off? Hopefully not – as the GM, you've already decided that the plan for getting in would work and you've portrayed things that way. You've sent the players the message, "You planned your approach so well that, since you have the right skills, I'm giving this one to you." It would be cheap to roll the dice and turn the tables.

The case at hand is no different. If you were going to roll, you should've done so before the mercs ever stepped inside. If they had won and sent somebody in anyway, it would've been to distract from a counter-ambush. And then yes, the heroes could definitely have been surprised! While they were bunched up and hiding blind behind the bar, focused on one guy, the other two could've been doing anything. It's radical, but if these mercs were huge badasses, the man at the bar might've strapped on a second vest borrowed from one of his pals, done some coke, and been ready to get shot for the cause. When he didn't go down and the gunfire had deafened the PCs to the shots coming in the windows from the sides, the PCs would realize they'd been had.

GURPS generally assumes this process when PCs face NPCs:

1. Initial planning or roleplay by the PCs and/or NPCs, with the GM giving no hints as to the results and the players understanding that their choice of words and/or actions may or may not bear on the situation.
   
   
2. Judgment of quality of dialogue or planning by the GM, if he wishes to act subjectively and reward good ideas or penalize bad ones. He may instead decide to leave things to the dice and not meddle – because the PCs are the experts, not the players – although many players find it fun to gamble here.
   
   
3. Assessment of objective modifiers noted in the rules.
   
   
4. Dice rolls, with any subjective (Step 2) or objective (Step 3) modifiers assigned above.
   
   
5. Comparison of dice rolls to rules for canonical results.
   
   
6. Description of results by the GM, which is when reactive dialog or action, surprise, etc. is assessed.

GURPS supports the abridged, more roleplaying-friendly order 1-2-6, too! It also supports 3-4-5, for situations in which everybody agrees to leave it to the dice, because they're not personally subject-matter experts. The trouble is that you did 1-2-6 and then did 3-4-5, and found 5 and 6 to be in conflict. You can do 1-2-3-4-5-6 and have 5 inform 6, but doing 1-2-6-3-4-5 will rarely if ever make sense.

[Kromm]

Incidentally, surprise in real life is rather subjective to begin with. It's mostly a state-of-mind issue. It's quite possible to be surprised by a state of mind that you didn't account for.

In the example at hand, even if you have the mercs walk in before rolling dice, there are valid ways for you to interpret victory on their part in a manner that would grant them the element of surprise. A very good roll might mean extreme mental preparation: They had an SOP for trouble at the bar, and as soon as the lead man walked in and spotted the fake bartender, he subtly took his safety off, went to Condition Orange, dropped a hand, and gave the trouble sign to his pals, behind him and out of the fake bartender's line of sight. The other two, obscured from the fake bartender's sight by their lead man, also went Orange, got ready, and stepped to either side. All three were savvy enough to know that nobody jumps three men by himself, and picked mental aim points behind or through the bar. And since the mercs won by lots, they did this so subtly that the only PC who could catch on missed it . . . and his allies were hiding behind a bar, unable to clue in. Then an instant before the lead PC could signal, bring up his SMG, whatever, the mercs seized the initiative, blasting the bar and everybody behind it big-time.

Here, the PCs didn't account for the mercs being suspicious types with an SOP for the bar, or being in Condition Orange, or having weapons ready in a way that didn't look ready, or being willing to shoot first and ask questions later. Meanwhile, the mercs saw the obvious fake and were ready for the state of mind of the sort of guy who'd stand out in the open to distract from an ambush. When the gears engaged, the mercs were out of the gate 1/10 of a second sooner, whereupon the noise and flash and confusion of being shot at suppressed the PCs for the second or so necessary to get dead. That's actually a lot more realistic than you might think!

What it comes down to is that if you never want to see that outcome – for the PCs to be out-guessed or run into somebody frostier than them and get shot, bad – then don't make surprise a dice roll. No ambush is airtight. There's always the small chance that your rabbit is a wolf, or that your "victim" is taking a calculated risk to lure you out. There's even a chance that you could make a noise or flinch in a way that gives away the game, and your target is wired and goes off faster than you expected. You can stack the deck by giving the PCs big bonuses for good planning, but if you roll, then you have to accept that they could lose horribly. If you're 100% sure that they couldn't lose, then don't roll in the first place; just go with the 1-2-6 method I outlined above.