Optimum Level of Deceptive Attack

[dublindog]

Min/maxers rejoice, I have calculated the optimum levels of Deceptive Attack you should take, assuming knowledge of the defender's Active Defense score.
UPDATED!
http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/4...eattacksma.png

This was accomplished by calculating the overall probability of a hit (attack succeeds, defense fails) including Critical Hits and automatic Fails. You'll notice the effect of critical hits along the bottom especially, where you lose the benefits of DA by dropping your chance at a critical hit (on a 5 or 6) combined with the odds of a defense roll of a 17 or 18 always being a failed defense (lowering a defense of 18 to 17 or 16 garners the attacker no benefit in odds of a successful attack).

The rules prevent you from dropping your effective skill below 10, so I started the chart at Skill = 12. And while I've never run across such a high defense in a real game, I assume it's possible and so there's no reason not to include all possible defense scores.

[dublindog]

System crunchers might find these two charts interesting.

The first is the probability of success, effective skill vs. effective defense. You can use this chart to decide if DA will work by moving left two, up one from any cell and if the value is larger, it's better to use DA.

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/3...ulblowchar.png

The next chart is the amount of benefit (out of 100%) that applying the optimal level of DA will get you. For instance, with a skill level of 21 and an defense of 12, you can expect a success rate of 32.3%. If you take 4 levels of DA (-8 skill, -4 defense) to 13/8, you gain 30.35% for a 62.55 success rate.

http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/124...eattackben.png

[Humabout]

Nymdok has done extensive work in this area. You might find his tables and advice useful, if you like this sort of thing.

http://forums.sjgames.com/showthread.php?t=62664

[dublindog]

Thanks for the link. I hadn't seen that. His numbers for P(Success) match with mine. A good thing.

He stops short of really analyzing Deceptive Attack from a player's position though. Non-crunchers can use the first chart I produced as a cheat sheet to optimal play, sort of like those cards they hand out for Black Jack strategy.

His chart looks great for GM creating balance, I produced mine for the players. I think if he added my DA benefit chart to his P(Success) chart, he'd have to recalculate his "Want players to land hits 75%-50%-25% of the time" chart a little bit to account for better play by the players.

DA really changes the game for skills above 16.

[Bruno]

Originally Posted by dublindog

You'll notice the effect of critical hits along the bottom especially, where you lose the benefits of DA by dropping your chance at a critical hit (on a 5 or 6) combined with the odds of a defense roll of a 17 or 18 always being a failed defense (lowering a defense of 18 to 17 or 16 garners the attacker no benefit in odds of a successful attack).

There's an interesting region beyond Defense 18, where it actually pays for a high skill attacker to stack DA until his effective skill is 10ish, even though it reduces chance of success. It's an "in for a penny, in for a pound" sort of scenario - you have to invest so much in DA to see any effect at all on the foes defenses that you're better off to keep throwing more skill penalties after and make the sacrifice worth something.

Of course, in a practical situation it's better not to DA at all in that situation if you can help it, because it's better to attack a different way, or at least not directly. Grenades, area effect attacks of all kinds, or trying to relocate the battle to someplace the defender doesn't have such a staggering advantage over you are all better tactics at that point.

If you don't have the resources to try an indirect attack like that, a skill 22-23+ attacker vs a high-defense foe is better off to Rapid Strike as much as possible than to DA, because he can double or even triple his chance of a critical success (which completely negates even the highest defenses).

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by Bruno

If you don't have the resources to try an indirect attack like that, a skill 22-23+ attacker vs a high-defense foe is better off to Rapid Strike as much as possible than to DA, because he can double or even triple his chance of a critical success (which completely negates even the highest defenses).

Note that the existence of Riposte means that it can be a very bad tactic to attack at skill 16+ if it leaves the foe with a high enough defence to be able to hit you with a nasty Riposte.

This particularly applies if the foe is otherwise not as skilled as you, but has many bonses to Parry.

[dublindog]

Originally Posted by Bruno

There's an interesting region beyond Defense 18, where it actually pays for a high skill attacker to stack DA until his effective skill is 10ish, even though it reduces chance of success.

I didn't take the chart beyond Defense 18, but I can if there's interest. I've never run across such a high defense. But even on the extant chart, there's not major difference where the chart drops from 3 levels of DA to 0 levels, so I can see where your observation would hold true.

The "Percent of benefit" chart I posted shows how light the benefits are on the edges of the range. Most DA1 benefits are 1-3%, the highest I think (quick look) is 8.64% at 18/8.

[Nymdok]

Originally Posted by dublindog

His chart looks great for GM creating balance, I produced mine for the players. I think if he added my DA benefit chart to his P(Success) chart, he'd have to recalculate his "Want players to land hits 75%-50%-25% of the time" chart a little bit to account for better play by the players.

DA really changes the game for skills above 16.

Thanks!

That was one of the first posts I made on the topic, and have made a few since then, some with worked examples.

For a more complete treatment, feel free to check the website in my sig.

I came to similar conclusions as you did on where the optimums are, but since I normally figure the players dont know the AD of the opponents and I attempt to play the NPCs as not knowing the AD of the players, I ususally just DA down to 15 or 16 and ommited the chart both from the google spreadsheet and the balance one sheet pdf.

Notice that the linked thread didnt get a single reply!

I figured that the lack of interest meant that I wasnt providing a granular enough resolution, so I continued to develop it.

Keep crunching the numbers! Im always interested in seeing what people come up with in the spirit of providing game and especially combat balance.

Of course, if any of my work can speed you towards the answers you are looking for, you are completely welcome to them and feel free to PM or Email me if you have any questions :)

Nymdok

[Bruno]

Originally Posted by dublindog

I didn't take the chart beyond Defense 18, but I can if there's interest. I've never run across such a high defense.

It really depends on the kinds of games you're in, and generally the point total is a huge factor in whether it's likely to come up. I can't say I've seen anything where it would be "common", but in Supers games I'd be highly surprised if "super speedsters" or "super agile" characters over about 400 points weren't routinely built with dodges that could be pushed into or over that range.

Wuxia-style high cinematic martial arts games, and of course their weird obsessed stalker-fan Dungeon Fantasy Ninjas and Monks (and swashbucklers) can have Dodges and parries that shoot skyward on a regular basis. A Retreating Acrobatic Dodge is good for a +5 bonus, never mind All Out Defense Dodge or extra effort in combat - a base of 13 requires Combat Reflexes, and either a significant investment in DX, HT and/or Speed, or a little Enhanced Dodge, or just some spells or magic items. Parry 15 (to hit 18 with just the Retreat bonus for fencing weapons or Karate) is also totally achievable on ~300 points with CR and a shield, and possibly some Enhanced Parry or magic items if you want a more defensive character than one with an attack skill of 22+

Once you're playing with 300+ point characters, you can definitely expect to see Skill 22+, especially after things like Accuracy enchantments, weapon bond, and balanced weapons are factored in.

Originally Posted by dublindog

But even on the extant chart, there's not major difference where the chart drops from 3 levels of DA to 0 levels, so I can see where your observation would hold true.

~20% critical hit chance per attack is pretty terrifying when this can be sustained over a flurry of attacks. Add Luck into the mix to distort the odds further or to improve defenses.

[Bruno]

Originally Posted by Icelander

Note that the existence of Riposte means that it can be a very bad tactic to attack at skill 16+ if it leaves the foe with a high enough defence to be able to hit you with a nasty Riposte.

This particularly applies if the foe is otherwise not as skilled as you, but has many bonses to Parry.

It's a risky tactic, but if you're throwing out high value hits it can seriously reduce the risk of a riposte. Obviously not everyone can play ST 21 SM +1 minotaurs cheerily going for brain hits, but for everyone else if you're trying this sort of thing, it's an excellent time to target a leg - falling over for being short a leg will probably totally hose the riposte, even if he makes the knockdown/stunning roll.

Face is another good choice - usually low armor, usually lovely high knockdown/stunning penalties to help spoil any reaction he had planned.

And you do NOT sacrifice your own defenses to try this unless you have something like Luck or lots of DR (or failing that a good healer or too many HP) to back you up when he retaliates.

I suppose I should also mention I was using a Flail at the time, which of course comes with Parry penalties built in which helps dampen Ripostes.