[Spaceships] Fusion Rockets

[MatthewVilter]

How would it affect the sol system in TS if TL 10 performance Fusion Rockets were developed?

I guess a lot of ships would have 5 times the delta-V! This would mean much faster trips to the Deep Beyond right?

What about Advanced Fusion Pulse Drives? With more then 8 times the delta-V that would be a big deal too right?

[tshiggins]

It depends on who develops it. A research program funded by a national government on Earth (Europe, China, the United States, the TSA) would give the sponsoring nation/coalition a huge (though short-lived) boost in capability, as compared to other national governments. However, once the genie is out of the bottle, the other wealthy nations would soon lay the keels for their own versions of those spacecraft.

So, you get a fairly short period (no more than about five years) of explosive growth from the primary innovator. Look to them to quickly bolster existing assets from Mars, out to the Deep Beyond.

For instance, if it were China or the United States, expect to see a rapid increase in the pace of development of Titan. If it's Europe, expect to see the War Under the Ice to come to sharp conclusion, with subsequent colonial development of Europa and Ganymede.

In any case, development of that sort of technological leap by a national government's space program will create serious problems for what they consider "outlaw" groups. The spike in logistical capability means the groups that make up the Trojan Mafia are in some serious trouble (especially if China makes the breakthrough, first). The Gypsy Angels would draw the attention of any new U.S. vessels (in the form of "inspection stops" and "counter-piracy patrols") and everybody would begin to exert pressure on Ceres to comply with international legal norms.

On the other hand, if Ceres were to develop the technology, first, I'd expect to see rapid expansion into the belt, which would tend to become even more of a "government-free" zone than it is, now. That would benefit the Martian Triads and the Trojan Mafia, considerably (albeit indirectly), make life pretty easy for the Gypsy Angels and other such groups, and might even destabilize the Martian Colonies, who can now get industrial and logistical support from the belt.

In addition, Ceres becomes an industrial powerhouse, because the new engine technology has profound spinoff implications. It's not just spacecraft engines that become more efficient, but every fusion reactor becomes significantly more effective. The company that created those engines would revolutionize power generation throughout the belt, would fiercely control its intellectual property, and would have better spacecraft (and tons of money) with which to do it.

That raises an interesting question -- would Ceres stop being an Libertarian haven, and become a straightforward corporate state?

That said, the long-term impact would be incremental, as the national governments quickly learn (or "acquire") the new technology, and rapidly adopt it, themselves. It just creates an even "Wilder West" feel in the Deep Beyond, because stuff slipped even more out of control, for awhile.

If the TSA gets it, first, the solar system has real problems (in my opinion). Not so much from the development of the technology, itself, (although, see the comments about spinoffs), but from the validation such a breakthrough would bring to the TSA's economic/social/political model. I'd certainly see Mexico, and most likely India, as well, electing TSA governments.

The reaction by China and the United States would be violent and swift. There's no way China would allow its greatest threat to deploy such a significant technological advantage. The United States, confronted with what it considered a "hostile power" with the potential for such a technological edge, right on its doorstep, would react badly, as well.

However, whereas China would probably want a replay of the Pacific War, the United States would engage in robust memetic campaigns and other black operations in an effort to destabilize TSA governments in the Western Hemisphere. In no way would Earth become a more pleasant place, and that conflict would spread off-planet, quickly.

Regardless of what happens on Earth, in the short-term, the long-term implications are even more profound. As with the advent of any new technology, all the old technology becomes a lot more affordable, as the adopters dump the old tech on the second-hand market. Assuming humanity doesn't tear itself and apart and turn Earth's orbit into a swirling hell of cascading space-junk, I see a massive expansion into the Main Belt and beyond.

The older (but still sound) space-craft get picked up by medium-sized corporations and well-funded private groups or wealthy individuals, and head out into the black. The question about who wins and who loses, in such a transition, largely depends on who made the initial breakthrough. The jump in capability allows the innovator to project its worldview ("memeplex") far more effectively than its rivals -- at least for a good 10 years or so.

Even after rivals began to adopt the new technology, they still have a long stern-chase before they get caught up, and the memetic engineers of the innovating power have an incredible advantage upon which to build.

From a realistic standpoint, I'd say the primary developer would most likely be a Fifth World nation or coalition. They have the money, educated populations and other resources needed to make such a breakthrough. From a game-enhancing standpoint, have Ceres make the breakthrough. That creates incredible in-game drama, as the outer system becomes more unstable, Mars colonies begin to seriously consider breaking away from Earth, and the Earth governments deploy intelligence assets in a desperate effort to keep track of what's going on.

If you want your THS campaign to descend into cataclysm, in which Mars becomes the center of human existence ("We're on our own, now..."), have the TSA make the breakthrough.

[MatthewVilter]

This is GREAT!

Thank you for taking the time to do this analysis. I really like how you went into detail about the importance of who develops the tech. Also, I had not even considered the effect on power plants! This would make He-3 ~five times as useful right? So if anyone but the US comes up with this it will make mining on Luna and Uranus that much more attractive right?

[Neural Kernel]

tshiggins laid it out better than I could in terms of the socio-economic impact of a more efficient drive, not only am I currently missing my book (I'll get it back soon, I hope...) but the large scale social interactions of THS never really were my main focus.
From what I remember of "Spaceships" the fuel AND reaction mass of a fusion rocket is assumed to just be hydrogen, no distinction is made between fuel or reaction mass. Hydrogen is likely the reaction mass of choice in THS fusion rockets but the fuel is a separate matter, it is either two different isotopes of hydrogen (deuterium and tritium) or else deuterium and helium3. D-T fusion produces roughly the same energy (I think...) as he3-D reactions but also produces neutron radiation which requires heavy shielding. Since he3-D fusion is largely free of the neutron "problem" it can dispense with the shielding, making a much lighter reactor/engine, meaning higher performance. The drawback is, of course, that he3 is extremely expensive. D-T is almost free by comparison, deuterium is plentiful wherever there is hydrogen (icy asteroids, gas giants, seawater...) and tritium can be bred by neutron bombardment of lithium (a D-T reactor can use it's own neutron production to create more fuel). With a fusion rocket taken literally as written... just load it with hydrogen and go... the entire economic system of the Solar system falls apart. If we assume that the actual fuel used is still he3-D or D-T and it's only hydrogen as reaction mass then you need two varieties of fusion rocket to accurately model THS drives, a high performance rocket with high fuel costs along with a lower performance rocket with MUCH lower fuel costs. Really the only reason to use he3 is if you're in a hurry or need to worry about environmental effects, basically Earth's power systems and military/passenger ships. Of course the best fuel (distinct from reaction mass) is still antimatter, I doubt there are many pion rockets flying but even a few grams of antihydrogen would dramatically improve the performance of a fusion rocket, although you would need shielding and quite a bit of radiator capacity to take advantage of it.
The primordial black hole(s?) found in the Kuiper belt are the most interesting development I remember from THS... not quite total conversion but potentially super fusion... at least for reactors if not rockets (cheap antimatter!!)
http://www.orionsarm.com/eg-article/49a58545cf19f

[MatthewVilter]

Originally Posted by Neural Kernel

With a fusion rocket taken literally as written... just load it with hydrogen and go... the entire economic system of the Solar system falls apart.

ROFL. That is a good point... To bad SS8 does not go into this. :(

[malloyd]

Originally Posted by Neural Kernel

With a fusion rocket taken literally as written... just load it with hydrogen and go... the entire economic system of the Solar system falls apart.

Eh, it's already handwaved to make He-3 a valuable enough resource to justify a lot of extraterrestrial presence. As you noticed D-T is cheaper, and it's an easier reaction to ignite, and was successfully operating first in the TS timeline, and it uses fuels that's can't be embargoed (which has even actually *happened* so it's not a abstract issue), and it's possible to make He-3 anyway (it's the decay product of that bred tritium after all), and...

It's always a challenge in an SF setting to make space settlements look economically viable. They aren't in any reasonable near future projection, and it's certainly possible they may well *never* be, but it's tough to pitch a high tech far future setting where there is no human presence off Earth and never has been.

The primordial black hole(s?) found in the Kuiper belt are the most interesting development I remember from THS... not quite total conversion but potentially super fusion... at least for reactors if not rockets (cheap antimatter!!)

Nowhere near that good. The thing is that the fusion reaction only runs down where the escape energy is comparable to the confinement energies necessary to force the fusion. This is such a absolutely tiny volume that the hole has to mass more than asteroids best measured in miles before the yield from that surpasses the Hawking radiation, and that's mostly because the Hawking radiation at those masses is low, let alone looks competitive with an actual power plant.

[Phil Masters]

Originally Posted by malloyd

It's always a challenge in an SF setting to make space settlements look economically viable. They aren't in any reasonable near future projection, and it's certainly possible they may well *never* be, but it's tough to pitch a high tech far future setting where there is no human presence off Earth and never has been.

One of these days, I must work out the details of my idea for a highly variant TS(-style) setting in which all activity in space beyond LEO is performed by infomorphs.

Of course, many of the sort of people who like TS would hate this with a passion. But it would actually stress my own suspension of disbelief a lot less than most space-RPG settings.