[DF] Suitable Dangerous Encounters

[Greg 1]

What might you throw at an average party of 250 point DF adventurers in a single encounter?

How tough would you make a single monster if only one was to be encountered?

What about if there were two?

Four?

Eight?

Yeah, I know most GMs tweak to suit the party, but give me your ballpark.

[Groslon]

You can use the probability chart on B171 to adjust your party's adversaries to an appropriate level. Generally speaking, you want to make your bad guys a threat, but not overwhelming, so adjust their skill levels to match.

In general terms, skill 12 is the absolute minimum for a credible combat threat. You can hit reliably with skill 12, but any sort of penalty will quickly render you inept. Skill 14-15 are solid performers that can make a few called shots, and handle small penalties. Skill 17-18 bad guys are usually quite dangerous since they can reliably hit your PCs in the head or vitals, or make Deceptive Attacks to foil your PCs defenses. 20+ is worse because they can do both at the same time.

When dealing with groups of enemies, if you don't want to change the threat level to your party, then adjust the enemy's skill downwards.

[mlangsdorf]

My experience is that delvers can take about twice their number in moderate skill minions (say orcs/goblins with Weapon and Shield skill 14) and triumph with little or no damage. Four times as many minions as delvers results in a difficult, but probably beatable fight, with 1-2 delvers critically wounded and needing to rest for a few days.

If there are fewer monsters than delvers, the monsters need to be pretty hard-core. Crushrooms and Acid Spiders from DF2 are monsters of this sort: high skill, high ST critters that can take a hit or two and still attack. A group of ogres with skill-16 or another band of PC templates is also generally a match.

Single or double foes generally need to be very powerful. Peshkali, stone golems, siege beasts, and sword-armor golems from DF2, or heavily layered PC templates with lots of power-ups are good examples. The monster needs multiple strong defenses, lots of HP, and good armor to be a credible threat.

I hope that helps.

[Nymdok]

Well lets take a simple case.....

A Barabarian, a Cleric and a Wizard walk into a bar.....how many of the Local guard will it take to get them out?

Guard in full Plate(DR7), With Spear(12:1d+2 Imp), Defense(BPD) = 0-9-9, HP:10.

Barbarian in Fur(DR1) with Bastard Sword(17:4d Cut), Defense(BPD)=0-12-9 (Includes ComRef), HP:22.

Cleric in Mail(DR 4:2) with Mace(14:2d+1 cr) and MedShield, Defense(BPD) = 12-12-10(Includes DB), HP:12.

Wizard in Robes (DR1) with Staff(14:1d+2), Defense(BPD)=0-12-9, HP:10.

NOTE: Before we get started, this is a very tactical situation and i Dont claim to be able to evaluate all possible decisions/strategies etc. This is meant to be a ballpark.

EDIT: Changed to include these Values for greater accuracy
(Chance to Hit)(Expectation fo Damage beyond DR on that Hit)(Wounding)
Cleric = (.574)(1.56)(1) = .9 per turn
Barbie = (.70)(7)(1.5) = 7.6 per turn
Wizard = (.574)(.1667)(1) = .10 per turn

Guard
1 v Wizard = (.574)(4.5)(2) = 5.2
3 v Barbarian = (.206+.47+.47)(4.5)(2) =10.3
2 v Cleric = (.206 + .38)(1.67)(2) = 1.96


So lets look at the tale of the Tape

Barbarian v Guard
Barbarian Offense
(Likelyhood of a Hit)(Likelyhood of Damage)
(17 v 9)* (DMG v DR)
71.8*98.8= 70%
Damage Dealt Expectation per turn = (.70)(7)(1.5) = 7.6 per turn beyond DR

Barbarian Defense
Parry : 100-(12v12) 20.6 = 79.4%
Dodge: 100 - (12 v 9) 47 = 53%
3 v Barbarian = (.206+.47+.47)(4.5)(2) =10.3

Damage Absorbed Expectaition per turn = (3.5+2-1) = 3 v Barbarian = (.206+.47+.47)(4.5)(2) =10.3 Beyond DR

So for 2 opponenets there is a 67.6% chance the Barbarian will get hit, For 3, hell get hit once and some change.

Barbarian is Dishing out Avg 7.6 ( a Major wound) Every turn.

So to really challenge the Barbarian, well have to put at least 3 guys on him.

3 guys will do about 10 damage a turn, 4 would do 14.23, 5 would do 18.23.

EDIT:Changed from earlier.

Seeing these new numbers, and knowing that the Barabrian has 22 HP, Ill up my original estimate by One guy :) to 4 on the barbarian.

Sounds like a lot, but hes got 22 and the odds that any single attack will do enough to serriously wound him are slim. (HP/2)

Those guys wont last long even in plate though against that 4d sword! They should have brought shields!

Cleric v Guard
Cleric Offense:
(14v9)(2d+1v7)
(57.4)(58.3) = 33%
(Hit %)(Damage Expected)(Wounding)
Damage Dealt per turn = (.574)(1.56)(1) = .9 per turn Beyond DR


Cleric Defense
Block:12v12=>100- 20.1% = 79.9%
Parry: (not likely with the mace, But possibel) Same as Block
Dodge: 12 v 10=> 100-38% = 62%
Damage Absorbed per turn = 2 v Cleric = (.206 + .38)(1.67)(2) = 1.96 Beyond DR


Well assume that the cleric is an active participant, and that the parry is unlikely. so if there are 2 on the cleric they have about a 58% chance of getting a hit.

The Cleric Deals out almost a point past DR per round, but compared to the almost 2 coming in, this aint enough.

If we drop down to one foe, its only .68 points per turn past DR, which may not be challenging enough.

This is a clear testament ot the value of a Shield and Armor! The Barbarian should take a lesson!

The Cleric will be here all day against these 2 foes and is at a disadvantage. The Cleric will likely have to take AOD, or simply forgo his attack to parry.

note that If the Cleric has Spells that can neutralize the attackers AND has time to get them off scale them based on the liklihood that those attacks will succeed.

Sleep Spell for example:
Cleric has Sleep (either spell or Affliction ablility). If the likelihood is less than 50% that the opponent will resist it, Dont count that opponent.

So if our guards have will of 12 and HT of 10:
Then 2 levels of Affliction(Sleep), or the Sleep Spell at 13 will be enough to negate one of the Guards

Wizard v Guard
Wizard Offense
(14v9)(1d+2 v 7)
(57.4)(16.7) = 9.5%
Damage Dealt =(.574)(.1667)(1) = .10 per turn Beyond DR

Wizard Defense
Parry = 12v12 = 100-20.1 = 79.9 %
Dodge = 12 v 9 = 100-47% = 53%
Damge absorbed = (.574)(4.5)(2) = 5.2 Beyond DR


For a wizard with Burning Touch 3 for example the balance shifts DRAMATICALLY because it nulliifies the effects of the shiny PLate Mail Armor.

Taken as is however, this is NOT a good place to be!

The Wizard will be taking around 5 dmg per turn which is more than HP/2. The ONLY options for the wizard is take AOD Parry,retreat or cast somethign amazing! A stand up fight however, is not for him.

So In Conclusion:

Based on these rough numbers,
at least 4 for the Barbie, 2 for the Cleric, and 1 - 3 for the wizard depending on his spells.


Nymdok

[Greg 1]

Thank you! Very helpful! :)

[Ts_]

Just a quick note on the damage values: You treat DR unusually with the "chance to get through DR". For high values you can simply subtract the DR from the expected values for a good approximation (like the 4d vs DR 7 is 14 - 7 = 7 on average, and this is 100% precise if even the lowest damage is equal to DR), but for low damage that approximation is a bit too pessimistic. The Cleric does expected damage 2d+1=8, so he should hit for only 1 after DR using the approximation, but it is actually more like 1.6 each hit. (Reason: A 2d+1 vs DR 7 does not do -4 damage when a 2 is rolled, and similiarly for 3,4,5.)

So, assuming a hit, the average damage that penetrates the plate armor is:
Barb: 7.02 cut (*1.5 = 10.5)
Cleric: 1.56 cr (*1)
Wiz: 0.17 cr (*1)

The guards deal 4.5 imp (*2) penetrating damage to the barb and wizard, but only 1.67 imp (*2) vs. the Cleric's Mail (on average, assuming a hit).

Furthermore, with the not so high hit probability of the guards, the defenses of the PCs would be more effective than in your calculation, at least for the cleric. (The barb always dodges, so this is easy to calculate, and the wiz has only one enemy.) The cleric would block the first successful hit (if it comes from the shield side ... arggh) and then dodge the rest. But that's not the same as assuming that the 1st guard is up against the block and the 2nd and 3rd against the dodge. Probably the error isn't that great (it only happens when the first guy misses), but it would be quite pronounced if the guards had skill 10 or so and the clerics block was even higher. But I don't have the precise numbers for the cleric just yet ...

And yeah, overall the numbers seem good despite these slight inaccuracies.

Regards,
Ts

[tjbuege]

Originally Posted by Nymdok

Barbarian v Guard
Barbarian Offense
(Likelyhood of a Hit)(Likelyhood of Damage)
(17 v 9)* (DMG v DR)
71.8*98.8= 70%
Damage Dealt Expectation per turn = 9.8 or just 10

Ok, you lost me. Where are you coming up with these percentages and numbers? The above is just an example, but I'm trying to understand the math behind this, so I can calculate this for myself.

Thanks,
Tim

[Nymdok]

Originally Posted by tjbuege

Ok, you lost me. Where are you coming up with these percentages and numbers?

Well, I made a spreadsheet its on my website here is the short answer.

The slightly longer answer is that for a hit to land and do damge:

Your Attack Must succeed.
The Defenders defense must fail.
The Attackers Damage Rolled Must exceed the DR.

So for an attack to succeed,

(Attacker gets a Crit)+(Attacker gets a hit thats NOT a crit)(Defender Fails His defense) = Chance youll land a blow.

So for a 15 skill versus a 12 active defese its...

(Odds od a crit: 5 or less= 4.62) + (Attack Succeeds But is NOT a crit : 5<AttackRoll<=15 or [<=15] - [<=5] = )(Defense Fails - Not >=12 = 13 + : 25.93)
Odds of a Landed Blow = (4.62%)+(90.75%)(25.93%) = 28.15 or 28.2

Damage Greater than DR is the expectation value of each damge summed.

So for 1d versus DR4, only rolls of 5 or 6 will get by DR, each with 1/6 of a chance to show up.

5 - 4 = 1 * .166667 = .16667
6 - 4 = 2 * .166667 = .33333

Damage Expectation = .48

(The Damage Expectation)*(Odds of a Landed Blow) = The Average Damage we expect per turn.

Its a poor metric, but one of the few that we have :)

Nymdok

[tjbuege]

If you don't mind, let's see what I come up with for numbers with your examples:

Originally Posted by Nymdok

Guard in full Plate(DR7), With Spear(12:1d+2 Imp), Defense(BPD) = 0-9-9, HP:10.

Barbarian in Fur(DR1) with Bastard Sword(17:4d Cut), Defense(BPD)=0-12-9 (Includes ComRef), HP:22.

Cleric in Mail(DR 4:2) with Mace(14:2d+1 cr) and MedShield, Defense(BPD) = 12-12-10(Includes DB), HP:12.

Wizard in Robes (DR1) with Staff(14:1d+2), Defense(BPD)=0-12-9, HP:10.

Barbarian vs Guard (17:4d vs 9:DR7)

The Barbarian has 99.5% chance to hit, with 9.3% of that being critical hit. That means the Guard can defend against 90.3%. The Guard fails his defense 62.5% of the time. So, the Barbarian will land a blow, getting past the guard's defenses 65.7% of the time:

9.3% + 90.3% * 62.5% = 65.7%

Rolling 4d for damage, there are 1296 possible combinations of the dice with 1261 of them resulting in >7 total. So 97.3% of the time the Barbarian will do some damage. The average roll with 4d is 14, which would result in 7 damage. I'm not sure how to figure that into the average damage done.

Cleric vs Guard (14:2d+1 vs 9:DR7)

1.9% + 88.9% * 62.5% = 57.4%

The cleric will penetrate the DR 21 out of 36 times, or 58.3% of the time. Average roll with 2d+1 is 8, resulting in 1 damage.

Wizard vs Guard (14:1d+2 vs 9:DR7)

1.9% + 88.9% * 62.5% = 57.4%

The wizard will penetrate the DR only 1 time out of 6, or 16.7% of the time. The average roll with 1d+2 is 5.5, which is under the DR of 7. This bit of information does nothing to help me figure out how to consider average damage dealt.

But damage aside, I think my calculations for chances to land a blow are a bit different than yours. Is there something else I'm not considering?

Thanks,
Tim
Tim

[Ulzgoroth]

Originally Posted by tjbuege

Wizard vs Guard (14:1d+2 vs 9:DR7)

1.9% + 88.9% * 62.5% = 57.4%

The wizard will penetrate the DR only 1 time out of 6, or 16.7% of the time. The average roll with 1d+2 is 5.5, which is under the DR of 7. This bit of information does nothing to help me figure out how to consider average damage dealt.

Well, this one is dead easy. The others are doable, but this one you can do in your head.

Expectation (or average) damage = chance to hit * (average over possible damage rolls of injury resulting)

In this case, the possible damage rolls give 5 0s and one 1 for injury, so expected damage is chance to hit * 1/6.