Alt History: Israel loses in 1948

[Captain-Captain]

The state of Israel is overpowered and ceases to exist. Things do not go well for recent Jewish immigrants nor for native born Jews either but the king of Jordan does makes a distinction and makes it very easy for them to leave.

This is the carrot to the stick of staying there.

There will be no Palestinian problem, no unifying Israeli enemy on their to deal with. Without that, far less anti-American opinion in the middle east. Major oil producing national governments are stronger allies because nothing really conflicts with their lucrative trade with the Western oil companies.

So what happens?

The Soviets put their efforts where?

Are thext proxy wars between the US in Africa, South and Central America or Southeast Asia as in our timeline?

[Flyndaran]

Couldn't that result in more infighting among states and possibly an even more violent region?

[Captain-Captain]

Originally Posted by Flyndaran

Couldn't that result in more infighting among states and possibly an even more violent region?

Certainly.

More factionalism, a more balkanized middle east, the oil producing states more dependent on US Military aid, and secure in their power, more local tyranny.

[Turhan's Bey Company]

I'm gonna guess that in the short run the region will be more peaceful because there are no Arab-Israeli wars. In the long run, though, we end up more or less where we are because there are a lot of factors in play beyond Israel. We still sponsor a coup in support of the shah because we're still scared of the Russians, the Soviets still have their client states because Middle Eastern oil is still important, Naser still plays both sides, and when Arab nationalism plays out, we're back to Islamists as the only force which can oppose the nationalists. Now, the US is less hated because we're not supporting a country the Arabs all hate in their back yard, but the Cold War and basic unsuitability of the maps forced on the region at the end of WWI are still in effect.

[Flyndaran]

Come on, there are many reasons to detest Israel that have nothing to do with racism. The cold war gave the world loads of reasons to detest the U.S.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by Flyndaran

Come on, there are many reasons to detest Israel that have nothing to do with racism. The cold war gave the world loads of reasons to detest the U.S.

But not more reasons to detest the US than the Soviets gave them to detest the USSR. Picture a world were in 1945 the population of USA is magically transported to another planet is given lots of high-tech goodies and the knowlege to use and recreate them and lives in comfort and splender. Then picture the events on the Earth as the Red Armay realises it is the uncontested millitary power in Europe and Stalin enforces his vision of ideolgical purity on the whole wide world.

This would be a nicer world for the USA (except for missing out on the Beatles, Toho's monster movies, Peter Seller's, Doctor Who, and similar cool stuff) but it would be hell on everyone else, including the Russians.

[Astromancer]

The first thing I'd see from an Israeli defeat would be a surge of refugees headed towards the USA, Canada, and Australia, all nations with historically low levels of anti-semetic activity. Some of the talented folks that went to Israel and got killed or otherwise distracted (and Europe's Jews were a highly educated group that actualized their talents) would contribute to American life and culture.

A wider group of people on the European Hard-Right would sneer at America as that place run by Jews and White Supremicist groups would gas on about the Zog more often. America would gain, and the Arab political elites would blame someone else for all the failings. Both Soviet-style comunism and Arab-style Authoriterianism would both remain bad ideas.

[David Johnston2]

Originally Posted by Astromancer

But not more reasons to detest the US than the Soviets gave them to detest the USSR. Picture a world were in 1945 the population of USA is magically transported to another planet is given lots of high-tech goodies and the knowlege to use and recreate them and lives in comfort and splender. Then picture the events on the Earth as the Red Armay realises it is the uncontested millitary power in Europe
.

Which of course it isn't. The British Commonwealth was actually a major military force back then, the Russians would be hard pressed to take more than they already have without the logistical assistance they'd been getting from the Americans and the British were much closer than Russia to making a nuclear bomb if they had to. But this ASB scenario is irrelevant. In both real history and the Israel loses history, the United States is substantially more powerful than the Russians and the hypothetical things the Russians would do if not stopped create fewer hard feelings in the Middle East than the actual things the United States will be doing, everywhere save possibly Afghanistan, which hates everyone anyway.

[jason taylor]

Originally Posted by Flyndaran

Couldn't that result in more infighting among states and possibly an even more violent region?

Very easily. A large part of the reason for anti-Israel speeches is keeping a lid on by providing an enemy.

[jason taylor]

Originally Posted by jason taylor

Very easily. A large part of the reason for anti-Israel speeches is keeping a lid on by providing an enemy.

On the other hand it is not the violence of the Middle East that puts it in the news. Plenty of places are actually more violent. It is the strategic importance, the historical significance. And possibly though seldom mentioned, the fact that visiting newsfolk get better hotels.