[CousinX]

Totally, and that's where Rule the First, Know Thy Players is so important. There's nothing like that feeling of satisfaction when they Take the Bait, just like you knew they would, and start the chain of dominoes a-tumblin. Or better, when they Throw Back the Curtain (or Pull off the Mask, etc) and figure out what's really been going on -- which, now that they know the Truth, all makes sense in retrospect.

And as you say, it's all about what works for a given GM and group. I've known GMs who are at their best flying by wire, successfully pulling entire campaigns out of their hats, particularly when they know the players well ... not me, though. The less time I spend thinking about the details (descriptive details, plot devices and twists, or even laying out epic fight scenes), the less satisfied I end up being with the results. I find that to be the case general, I think: I do my best work in revision.