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Old 06-11-2019, 10:40 PM   #15
AlexanderHowl
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Default Re: Approaching TL9?

We do not even have a mature TL7 space industry, much less a mature TL8 space industry, so everything is one off missions that cost 100x as much. For example, a mature TL7 space industry would be able to put stuff into LEO for $500 per kilogram, but we have problems getting the price down to $5000 per kilogram (SpaceX has aspirational goals, but they are charging the same as everyone else).

For example, a mature TL7 space industry would use a four stage design to put stuff into LEO (three lift stages and one cargo stage). The first two lift stages would have 12 fuel tanks, one soft-landing system, and a chemical rockets, each giving 2.52 mps of delta-v. The third lift stage would have 10 fuel tanks, one soft-landing system, one control room, one chemical rocket, and one habitat. The cargo stage would be the payload. Starting with a 1,000 ton vehicle, you could put 30 tons into orbit for $680k worth of reaction mass and $800k worth of soft-landing systems, a total of $1.48M or $55 per kilogram. Even if you quadrupled the cost to $6M per launch to account for everything else, the cost would only be $223 per kilogram, which is 10% of even the best estimation of SpaceX. It is sad truth, but we are not that good at space.
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