[Mathulhu]

Here's an idea that flies in the face of one of your random bits.

The Middle East isn't really a mess, there is actually several solid functional states in there. The chaos and violence that is seen by the outside world is actually a minority of loud people being dramatic, it's like they're judging all of America on the gang riddled area of a single city.

A war that isn't happening, or maybe no one wants to win. There are troops deployed and things are being blown up but no one is actually shooting at anyone. The troops in the field are mingling like sentries before a Napoleonic battle. The officers are allowing the enemy to retreat in good order.