[Varyon]

With effective HT 5, the chance to recover within 6 seconds is around 25%. This jumps to 44% for HT 6, 65% for HT 7, 83% for HT 8, 94% for HT 9, and 98% for HT 10.

An active-duty soldier is likely to have effective HT 11 or 12 prior to the penalty (as noted, the bonus from Fit applies). So, leaving things as-is (HT-5 to recover), that means around a 50% chance to recover within 6 seconds. Change the penalty to recover to -4, that jumps to somewhere around 70%.

An alternative would be a +1 to recover per previous attempt (which I believe recovering from surprise uses). So if it's HT-5 to recover the first second, then HT-4, then HT-3, etc, then an HT 10 character is looking at around an 83% chance to recover within 6 seconds, an HT 11 one is looking at around 93%, and an HT 12 one is looking at around 98%.