[RGTraynor]

While several posters have gone over timeframes and other difficulties, here are a few other thoughts:

* What kind of logistical support do they have? Are we talking a shipload or two of stuff, or some ongoing logistics train? (And is that logistical support also TL2, ugh?) To what degree are we not worrying about food? Is the king lending them a hundred masons/lumberjacks for four months to help them get started?

* What kind of resources/coin did they bring with them? What kind of resources are *there*? Adequate timber? Adequate building stone? Adequate clay for pottery? Limestone? Coal?

* What kind of climate are we talking about? Subtropical? New England?

* What percentage of the refugees are unproductive population? Softhanded scholars? A priesthood whose job is to sit around and chant? The soldiers who need to keep watch, because this "frontier march" is right next door to some unpleasant types?

* Followed by: do they have leaders who know what they're doing? Mages, priests with healing powers?

See, I'm coming at this from the perspective of someone who grew up in the Plymouth MA area, very much aware of what happens when you dump a cramped cog-load of cityfolk into the middle of a howling frozen wilderness in December. To wit, a whopping lot of them croak, and most of them are unfitted to be pioneers. Which wound up being a trope often repeated on the American coast between the earliest settlements and when a critical mass accrued.

(Conversely, the early history of Plymouth Colony changes a LOT with just one priest capable of healing and one wizard with six or seven spells each in Plant, Earth and Weather.)