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With GURPS, I'm not so sure. How does one judge whether an encounter will give the party a reasonable chance of survival, while giving enough danger to make the victory oh so sweet?
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Mostly I use gut feeling. In cinematic campaigns I usually make most of the opposition deliberately weak, and play them stupidily. In a realistic campaign I rely on the PCs to avoid fighting except when necessary and to retreat when overmatched.
For the most part you don't need to sweat it as much as in D&D. PC death isn't really as much of an issue in GURPS since they are likely to be rendered hors d'combat before being killed. Total party capture is more likely than TPK, IME.
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The difference between fighting some mooks and fighting the boss.
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You can use the Cannon Fodder rule and the buying successes rule. My modified version:
- Basic Mooks:Use the cannon fodder rules as is.
- Ninja Mooks: Defend normally (in fact use any and all combat options) but still go down after one hit.
- Tough Mooks: Don't defend (Tough Ninja Mooks will defend normally). Goes down automatically if they take HP damage or more than 1/2 HP in a single hit.
- Named opponents: All normal rules apply. Named characters have a small (1d) pool of extra character points to spend on successes.
- Bosses: All normal rules apply. At 1/3 HP or less the boss gets a benificial coincidence that helps him escape combat (as per the Serendipity advantage). Bosses have a larger pool (2d+3) of extra character points to spend on successes.