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-   -   Schwarzenegger 2020: Equal Opportunity to Govern (https://forums.sjgames.com/showthread.php?t=167818)

Varyon 03-12-2020 03:02 PM

Re: Schwarzenegger 2020: Equal Opportunity to Govern
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pomphis (Post 2313885)
But the constitution does not say "born in the US". And it does not define what "natural" means.

I don't think any argument that it meant "not a clone, a person delivered by caesarian, or a person conceived immaculately or by artificial insemination" is going to fly outside of a comedy, so I don't think you're going to be able to get away from the "born as a citizen" interpretation, particularly given that there was a need to give the likes of George Washington an exception ("or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of Adoption of this Constitution"). The question then becomes, if you want to avoid a Constitutional Amendment (or a functional Judicial Amendment, and all the problems that could cause), if State Legislatures could specifically grant someone "natural born" status, or if Congress could enact a law that allows one to gain "natural born" status by other means (as previously noted, being a citizen for 35 years or more seems like a fair option). I think with ASB tweaking and the laFayette precedent, one of these options could work, and be much easier/less problematic than the alternatives.

Note the important thing here isn't that whatever hoops one goes through be correct, but that they be something the public will accept enough not to raise a really big stink over it.

jason taylor 03-12-2020 03:25 PM

Re: Schwarzenegger 2020: Equal Opportunity to Govern
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Icelander (Post 2313610)
Assume an alternate history with only the most miniscule changes; i.e. Arnold Schwarzenegger manages to get the Equal Opportunity to Govern Amendment (or a later equivalent) passed and/or wins a legal challenge on the grounds that Section 1 of Article Two of the United States Constitution (i.e. the 'Natural-born-citizen clause') is exclusionary, discriminatory and unconstitutional, in time to campaign for the current elections.

I'm not saying that this is in any way plausible, but I'm looking for the most realistic course of action that might ensue if some mysterious force* was enabling Schwarzenegger to win legal cases everyone expected him to lose and/or successfully lobby politicians of both parties at a much higher rate than would be reasonable.

First of all, which would seem less implausible?

Functional change in law through judicial activism, probably going all the way to the Supreme Court?

Or legal change through Constitutional Amendment?

If someone could give me some guidelines on plausible timelines, here, for whichever option they favor, that would be great.

This is a mere background detail in a game set in 2018--2019, where Schwarzenegger has been much more politically active since leaving the Governor's office and the PCs are aware of some very serious efforts to change the law. If possible, I want to be able to feature in-setting news, analysis and arguments about the ongoing process, just as background colour.

So, where and how would the first law suit be filed? How would Schwarzenegger have standing, considering that he'd have to file in the lowest court many years before the election, too soon to declare as a candidate in that election. In real life, he started in 2003 and there was a short second wind of effort in 2013, which petered out almost immediately in real reality. I'm thinking that this second wind might have been the visible changepoint.

Any comments and suggestions welcome.

*Extremelly well-concealed Alien Space Bats with oddly modest goals and a preference for enacting their nefarious schemes through the path of absolute least resistance. They will change as little as possible.

One can split the difference and demand a period of residency in immigrants. Or some similar buy in (Daddy Bush issued summery pardons to illegal aliens who had served in the Gulf which is effectively a buy-in requirement).

Polydamas 03-12-2020 04:56 PM

Re: Schwarzenegger 2020: Equal Opportunity to Govern
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Varyon (Post 2313888)
I don't think any argument that it meant "not a clone, a person delivered by caesarian, or a person conceived immaculately or by artificial insemination" is going to fly outside of a comedy, so I don't think you're going to be able to get away from the "born as a citizen" interpretation, particularly given that there was a need to give the likes of George Washington an exception ("or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of Adoption of this Constitution").

Yes, constitutional courts don't like to look partisan, but "this action does not fall into this forbidden category because we legislators say it does not" is the kind of thing constitutional courts stamp down hard on, because if they don't they have no power at all. Courts in countries with old constitutions can make some peculiar rulings, but when there is a whole system of clauses which allow immigrants to obtain some offices but not the presidency, they don't have a lot of wriggle room.

jason taylor 03-12-2020 07:08 PM

Re: Schwarzenegger 2020: Equal Opportunity to Govern
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Varyon (Post 2313888)
I don't think any argument that it meant "not a clone, a person delivered by caesarian, or a person conceived immaculately or by artificial insemination" is going to fly outside of a comedy, so I don't think you're going to be able to get away from the "born as a citizen" interpretation, particularly given that there was a need to give the likes of George Washington an exception ("or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of Adoption of this Constitution"). The question then becomes, if you want to avoid a Constitutional Amendment (or a functional Judicial Amendment, and all the problems that could cause), if State Legislatures could specifically grant someone "natural born" status, or if Congress could enact a law that allows one to gain "natural born" status by other means (as previously noted, being a citizen for 35 years or more seems like a fair option). I think with ASB tweaking and the laFayette precedent, one of these options could work, and be much easier/less problematic than the alternatives.

Note the important thing here isn't that whatever hoops one goes through be correct, but that they be something the public will accept enough not to raise a really big stink over it.

For the matter of that, last time I looked it up pretty much all children are born artificially. And come to think of it even Mary contributed a little to it when you think about it.

Icelander 03-13-2020 04:48 AM

Re: Schwarzenegger 2020: Equal Opportunity to Govern
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Anthony (Post 2313873)
No amendment is needed for Ted Cruz. The usual assumption is that natural-born citizen means 'born a citizen', and he was (his mother was a US citizen). Various people with axes to grind choose to argue that this isn't sufficient, but it's vanishingly unlikely that a court (or at least, a higher level court) would agree.

Incidentally, the only US statute to define 'natural-born citizen' was the Naturalization Act of 1790, which in fact specifically would have classed him as natural-born.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Micahel Silverbane (Post 2313876)
I think you would be better off with someone who is definitely a foreign national or naturalized citizen. Possibly another celebrity (Manny Pacquiao, a boxer who became a Phillipino senator in 2016), somebody who many people think of as American (William Shatner, or maybe someone less famous than that, but that played a distinctly American character on tv or in film). Or an entirely fictional character.

My thought was that Ted Cruz could be the catalyst for a court case if his 2016 candidacy had progressed further. Or I could propose a candidate in 2012, depending on which would more likely produce a case that was being argued in the Supreme Court at the end of 2018 or beginning of 2019.

In the real world, courts normally confine themselves to the least potentially controversial argument that yields the desired result and a court would thus merely confirm Ted Cruz's eligibility without addressing the issue for any other potential candidates that do not share his exact circumstances of birth.

Influenced by ASBs, however, judges might be inclined to use the case to establish a precedent on the constitutionality of the natural-born clause or at least insert a statement into the obiter dicta that could be used to justify the view that the discrimination between two classes of citizenship was incompatible with the Constitution as it was currently understood. See Perkins v. Elg for a case where the court specifically addressed the eligibility for the presidency in a case where they had no pressing legal reason to do so.

In any case, while I agree that the best interpretation of the intended meaning of the phrase 'natural-born citizen' at the time of the framing of the Constitution would relate it to the 'natural liege' of English Common Law, making foreign-born children born to citizens 'natural-born' in this context, the idea that courts always rule according to perfect jurisprudence bears little resemblance to the real world.

Even without Alien Space Bats, there is always a non-zero chance that the result of a court case will be what the judge thinks should be the law, regardless of whether it is.

In any case, the authority of Congress to define the term 'natural-born citizen' seems fairly accepted by legal scholars, given that Congress did do so in 1790 and then, by implication, in 1795. Neither Naturalization Act was ever successfully challenged on the basis that Congress did not have the power to decide what 'natural-born citizen' meant.

Congress explicitly rejecting any substantive legal difference between 'natural-born' and other citizens, justified on the basis of the Enforcement Clause of the 14th Amendment, would be explosively controversial among a narrow subset of the population, i.e. constitutional scholars. How controversial it would, in practice, be among the general voter, I do not know.

Would it prevent any citizen benefiting from this change from having a chance at a presidential run in 2020?

Even an alt-Schwarzenegger with Charisma 5 and Politics and Public Speaking at 20+ (before Reaction modifiers)?

Pretty much a basic precondition for this change point is that in the years since alt-Schwarzenegger's Governatorship of California, he has become the most popular, respected and influential figure in US politics, all the more so because he has more-or-less successfully* managed to navigate a statesmanlike middle ground only available to someone not currently holding political office.

Without the obstacle of needing a potentially controversial judicial decision, legal statue or constitutional amendment to be eligible, any political analyst would have predicted that should he have run, alt-Schwarzenegger was by far the most likely candidate to win in 2016 and would win in a historic landslide in 2020.

In my campaign, because that obstacle has still not been fully eliminated by the end of 2018, he is still regarded as unlikely to run for 2020. However, a decade of ceaseless efforts by Alien Space Bats on his behalf has created a situation where it is just barely conceivable that by the time the legal eligibility requirement for 2020 becomes inescapable, alt-Schwarzenegger will fulfill it, somehow.

I'm looking for what would seem the most likely method of that change coming through. And the Alien Space Bats would absolutely have numerous simultaneous schemes ongoing, where the ideal case would see a constitutional amendment ratified long before alt-Schwarzenegger secured the Republican nomination, but in the less than ideal case that this is not successful, they'd accept a controversial Congressional statue or even an unlikely and shocking verdict by the Supreme Court widely considered to be judicial overreach.**

*With his Alien Space Bat enhanced uber-Politics skill and the stratospheric effective Propaganda that his team can muster for favored causes.
**But ideally focusing public ire more on the less well-known figure used as a stalking horse in the test case, rather than alt-Schwarzenegger. Obviously, there would be those who would nevertheless by influenced by what they perceived as an illegitimate candidacy, but the ASBs would be hoping that paranormally-enhanced alt-Schwarzenegger would still be so much better at campaigning than other candidates that this would merely reduce what would have been a landslide victory to a narrow one.

Icelander 03-13-2020 05:13 AM

Constitutional Amendment Before 2016
 
I have an idea for how things might have gone. We might suppose that before the 2016 elections, alt-Schwarzenegger managed to gain enough support in Congress to pass a constitutional amendment allowing naturalized citizens to be eligible for President, as long as they fulfilled some kind of residency requirement*, but that this Amendment was not ratified in time to allow him to run in 2016, allowing the Trump vs. Hillary contest that we know from our world.

At the end of 2018, there are still several (and possibly, numerous) states that have not ratified the Amendment. As a consequence, the majority view is that alt-Schwarzenegger will not run in 2020, but an increasing number of voters views this as a bad thing. However, rivals for the Presidency tend to be in favor of anything that prevents such a very popular candidate from challenging them in 2020, so there is a lot of opposition from their camps to ratification.

Because ratification is so difficult and unlikely to succeed, the Alien Space Bats are also pursuing numerous other routes to their goal, including lobbying for legislation and covertly supporting a series of court cases designed to challenge the existing 'natural-born citizen' clause.

The Equal Opportunity to Govern movement is spearheaded by numerous younger politicians than alt-Schwarzenegger, who has never yet publicly stated an intention to run for President, although he has made qualified and carefully-curated statements in support of removing any vestige of second-class citizens in US law, as long as this is done legally and democratically.

Now, things I'm looking for are:

a) Suggestions for what might be the most serious hold-out states in the ratification process.

b) Suggestions for suitable supporters of an Equal Opportunity to Govern Amendment among real politicians, celebrities and influential people. This should to at least some extent be a bipartisan movement; with Republican supporters of politicians like Ted Cruz, Marco Ruhbio and Bobby Jindal, as well as moderate/centrist/left-wing Republicans who want alt-Schwarzenegger to run and both Democrats and independents who support it for idealogical reasons and/or because they have a favored candidate who faces criticism or challenges because of perceived or real ineligibility.

c) Suggestions for court cases that might have occurred between 2010 to 2019 related to this movement, their results and any details that PCs should hear about or know. Also, crucially, what controversial court cases related to this subject are dominating the headlines at the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019?

*If 14 years is not perceived as enough, the 21 years proposed in early drafts of the Constitution (before the 'natural-born citizen' clause was inserted) could be chosen.

awesomenessofme1 03-13-2020 05:21 AM

Re: Constitutional Amendment Before 2016
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Icelander (Post 2313999)
a) Suggestions for what might be the most serious hold-out states in the ratification process.

Any states controlled by ideological conservatives (Texas is the first one to come to mind). Not only would they object to the idea in principle, the obvious connection to a potential candidate who's viewed as a RINO/"fake conservative" would make a lot of Republicans balk.

Icelander 03-13-2020 05:36 AM

Re: Constitutional Amendment Before 2016
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by awesomenessofme1 (Post 2314000)
Any states controlled by ideological conservatives (Texas is the first one to come to mind). Not only would they object to the idea in principle, the obvious connection to a potential candidate who's viewed as a RINO/"fake conservative" would make a lot of Republicans balk.

Indeed.

Which is why I've proposed Ted Cruz as a secret ally of the Alien Space Bats.

Also, probably at least a potential Vice-Presidential candidate for alt-Schwarzenegger.

Daigoro 03-13-2020 07:40 AM

Re: Schwarzenegger 2020: Equal Opportunity to Govern
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Icelander (Post 2313869)
My first thought was Ted Cruz, but I'm open to other ideas.

Barack Obama, after finishing his second term, becomes a Constitutional-reform lobbyist, campaigning for change with various other parts of the Constitution, but in particular campaigning to remove the political weapon that his opponents tried to use against him during his candidacy. "So what if I *had* been born in Kenya - such things shouldn't matter in this day."

aesir23 03-13-2020 07:59 AM

Re: Schwarzenegger 2020: Equal Opportunity to Govern
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Daigoro (Post 2314016)
Barack Obama, after finishing his second term, becomes a Constitutional-reform lobbyist, campaigning for change with various other parts of the Constitution, but in particular campaigning to remove the political weapon that his opponents tried to use against him during his candidacy. "So what if I *had* been born in Kenya - such things shouldn't matter in this day."

Considering he also had an American Mother, it would have been identical to Ted Cruz's case though, right? A Natural Born Citizen no matter where he was born.


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