World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Imagine that the Austrian-Hungarian Empire invested in the exploration and developed of individuals with psionic powers during the late 19th century. By the beginning of the 20th century, the aristocracy of the Empire finds that such individuals have military and intelligence utility, primarily in the form of ESP and Telepathy, giving them an edge over the other Great Powers, which neglected such investments in favor of dreadnoughts and other prestige investments. In total, 0.1% of the population is trained in psionics, though the average practitioner only possesses 50 CP of abilities and talents.

Assuming that the events that triggered World War One still occurred, perhaps the individuals tasked with protecting the Archduke came down with the flu, what impact would such individuals have had on the initial progression of the war? Would such subtle powers materially change the progress of the war if used effectively? Would that make the Empire more of an effective participant?

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

There is a huge variety of possible changes, although they may not be very large if the underlying politics aren't changed.

For example, psychic espionage in Moscow could reveal that Russia was serious about helping Serbia. However, Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf, the chief of staff of the Austrian army, overrated his country dramatically, and would not have been much concerned about Russia committing to war. Berlin didn't believe that Russia was serious, and Austria would probably not have told Berlin that they were.

Subtle psionic or magical powers don't tend to make much difference on a battlefield in GURPS, from experience in a lengthy WWII campaign. They're much more useful in espionage and counter-espionage, and the effects of those are difficult to estimate at a high level before a game starts.

Some things that would clarify the scenario:

• What has Austria-Hungary not bought, so that it can afford the psionics program?
• What does the rest of Europe think about the program? It can't be entirely secret if it has trained 50,000 people during peacetime.
• Which ethnic groups within the empire predominate in the program?

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

I will discuss your questions in order. First, they would have spent the money on psychics instead of on their useless dreadnoughts (the Austrian-Hungarian dreadnoughts were completely useless). Second, they would have been mocked by the rest of the Great Powers for investing in superstition because of the subtle nature of the powers. Third, they would have manifested more strongly in Transylvanian populations (2× the national average).

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Did the Austro-Hungarians have precognitives early on?

It was not obvious before WWI that their dreadnaughts would not be very useful. That turned out to be the case because Italy was at first neutral, then joined the Allied side. Since Italy was a member of the Triple Alliance, the Austro-Hungarians seem to have expected Italy to join with them, in which case their ships would have had access to the main basins of the Mediterranean, and could have been effective. Had the A-H empire consulted with Italy over their steps against Serbia, they might well have been able to keep the Triple Alliance together.
All of them, for decades? Once it became clear that the program was continuing, some other powers would have probably taken a harder look, in secret. Unless, of course, the Austro-Hungarians have psychic influence being used against that.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Yeah unless the AH psychic program doesn't bear fruit until Hostilities start, I can't help but think the AH empire will use this ability to massively influence international politics in their favour to the extent that WW1 will likely not happen!

the AH empire's population in 1914 in approx 53m at 0.1% of population that is 53,000 psychics with an average of 50cp on Psychic advantages.

Now I'm guessing some will have more useful powers than others and that some will have more CP than others. But that is a massive advantage, especially in world where such powers are not recognised.


(I know the OP stated assume the events running up to WW1 still take place, with those protecting the arch duke being asleep or the like. But the reality is even if the Archduke is killed in Sarajevo, AH with this advantage will still likely be able to head off a costly war and come out on top)

EDIT: i also think Transylvanian nationalism will become more of a thing.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

I am not sure that anyone else would have concrete evidence of the effectiveness of subtle psychics early on (IRL, governments dabbled with the research until the 1970s, but pretty much gave up because of a lack of concrete results). If the Austrian-Hungarian Empire benefits from first mover advantage, they might be able to recruit potential psychics from other nations and/or sabotage the research of other nations so that their competitors actually do think that psychics are bunk. The investment in psychics over dreadnought would just be a difference in priorities rather than necessarily a prediction.

For example, Austrian-Hungarian telepaths could use conditioning to give thousands of people within a competitor nation the delusion that they have psychic powers in order to foul up any potential research. With a large number of false positives and high profile lunatics claiming psychic powers, the majority of nations would probably just focus on building dreadnoughts. Of course, the fact that Austrian-Hungarian psychics could easily spy on their competitors would give the government an accurate assessment of relative military strength and attitudes.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

yep nice,

Also if it's smart AH will keep the existence of it's own successful physic powers a secret (also more easy to do when you have physic powers available).

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

An effective, though odd, way of keeping psychic powers secret is to use conditioning to give people within your own nation the delusion that they have psychic powers (such as ex-convicts or other undesirables). As long as your nation knows who is a false positive and your competitor nations do not, they will focus their attention on the lunatics. When they realize that the vocal psychics are lunatics, they are probably going to discount any reports of secret psychic programs (or think that the AH Empire is run by lunatics as well).

During the first stages of the war, the ability to accurately predict the tactics of enemy commanders would have massive consequences. Imagine if the AH Empire quickly defeated Serbia and then was capable of deploying more of its army against Russia earlier in the war. Italy may have remained neutral if the AH Empire showed that it was effective, meaning that the AH Empire could have focused on beating Russia, allowing Germany to focus on Western Europe. Of course, it is to the benefit of the AH Empire for the Allies to waste their strength on its allies (and for its allies to come out of the war weakened), so the AH Empire would likely not have shared its access to effective psychic powers, only any resulting intelligence.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Being able to accurately predict the behaviour of their own commanders might have been a significant benefit IIRC - from what I recall, the AH's main problems were a lower than average level of competence from staff level upwards and massive internal cohesion issues. CCC and internal security might be at least as effective as applications.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

They have ESP and still screw up and sent Franz Ferdinand to his doom? They didn't get a "Don't go to Sarajevo" memo? Or one which says to arrest Gavrilo Pricip and associates?

How is Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf still in his position? No psychic powers to reveal his incompetence?

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

On the other hand, if they want a war it becomes still easier to arrange it. And they very possibly wanted a war.

Or you can go a sinister conspiracy and say the pro-slav archduke was sacrificed intentionally to keep the empire together.

because he has psychics telling his staff to bring winter coats to the soldiers in the Carpathians, of course. Its hard to look incompetent when playing in save-scum mode.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Sacrificing the Archduke to perverse the Empire would probably be acceptable, especially if the psychics forsee worse consequences if he lives. Of course, Hapsburg inbreeding may result in innate psionic resistance spreading among the royalty, preventing the psychics from accurately telling the future of the royals (they would know war is coming, but they would not know they events that caused the war).

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

It may even be forbidden forbidden to tell the future of the royals. Yes, that would be monumentarily stupid but it wouldn't be the first time royal privilege overruled common sense.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Fortune telling has been illegal in a number of societies, so it would not be an unreasonable position.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Well, either Redl is caught or he tells the Russians everything, I suppose.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Redl would have likely been caught long before he could give critical information to the Russians (as soon as telepaths became reliable, mind probes would have likely been used against every high level individual outside of the imperial family).

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

There's a possibility that we have nested conspiracies here. The first really suspicious event is the suicide of Crown Prince Rudolf in early 1889. If that was the result of mental manipulation, it is clearly an anti-liberal plot within the Empire. If someone behind it then influenced other members of the nobility to look into psychic powers, the OP's scenario could emerge "naturally." But if that was happening, why would they leave an idiot like Conrad in charge of the Army?

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Well, that's the conundrum; it happens often enough for Redl to give a description of how the process works (at least from a Layman's view), or it doesn't and he goes undetected for a little while. Using Telereceive 3 with a skill of 11 (adds up to 50 pts exactly) from Psionic Powers as a guide, it would probably take a few hours per person to check them, so more than weekly would seem unlikely.

Besides Redl, the problem of a weak collective identity would remain for Austria-Hungary. Mercenary or Nationalist Psychics may betray AH to Advance their own agenda, and the higher concentration of Transylvanians would probably be very concerning.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Well, it would depend on the loyalties of the organization that controls the psychics. If the psychics belong to an organization that is loyal to the House of Lorraine, then you may have telepaths reprogramming new psychics as they come in through the use of Mind Control (Slow and Sure). Regardless of their original loyalties, the psychics would become loyal to the House of Lorraine before anything else.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

The Black Hand could also be connected with psychic powers, maybe thats how they maintained their plot secret, assuming he was not "sacrificed"

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

This would be the biggest threat I think, with 53k Psis working for them, AH can basically almost do what it likes and put itself in a favourable situation while doing so. But if those psis decided to do their own thing or even just enough of them do it gets complicated quickly. (AH might stop being recognisably AH). Without a universal and infallible counter, controlling Psis by the very nature of their powers is difficult.

One other thing what is the spread of power total, you said in the OP the average is 50cp, but what's the range here?

I'm not very up on the GURPS psychic powers rules so I'm not sure exactly what 50cp gets you (although I'm guessing you'll get more bang for you buck in this context with ESP, telepathy, mind control than more flashy psychokinesis etc)


But if you have a few individuals in the 500-1000 range in a world that doesn't believe in Psychic powers they're going a have a huge effect.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Nice! I'm now thinking some kind of competing super secret Tsarist programme run by Rasputin.

However he would in 1916 try to escape official control (who where by then having doubts about his true agenda and their ability to control him) by psychically faking his death by persuading his assassins that they were successful. He fluffed a few rolls which explains why he seemed so very hard to kill due to conflicting perceptions of him being dead and still needing to be killed.

After defeating AH, Rasputin's organisation decides to promote it's own ideas of changing Russian society while cementing its own behind the scenes central control via toppling the Tsar and it's enthusiastic but unaware cat-paws the Bolsheviks. Reshuffling and re-education follows.

However the remains of the AH programme which for whatever reason (maybe local nationalism) are disenchanted with the AH empire so are happy to see it disintegrate but would have one last chance to try and take revenge on Rasputin and Co. via the Civil war, using white Russian nationalists and international allies as their cats-paws.


Not sure if the AH remains end Rasputin's organisation at the cost of themselves, leaving the communists truly in charge* (albeit slightly bemused as they are no longer being controlled), or if Rasputin's organisation continues to be behind the scenes


*although aware enough of their initial situation to still continue in their later RL research into this area and still to be keen on reeducation, social manipulation and control.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

I am thinking that 90% of the psychics would have between 1-50 CP, 9% would have between 51-100 CP, 0.9% between 101-150 CP, and 0.1% between 151-200 CP. If the House of Lorraine (and other noble houses) possessed significant antipsi abilities, they could easily control the psychics and avoid psychic control. Strangely enough, psychic abilities would be the mark of common blood then while antipsi abilities would be a sign of noble blood.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

That … is an interesting point. would it be more likely that the AHE controls a force of psychics, or a force of psychics takes control of the AHE? Once you identify and segregate a group of people based on a shared feature, there is an excellent chance they will adopt a group identity and interest.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Well, that depends on the initial formation. Let us first assume that the House of Lorraine (and related noble houses) naturally manifest antipsi abilities due to their centuries of inbreeding and interbreeding. If they reward psychics generously for their efforts, and if they make sure that their telepaths condition the minds of newly recruited psychics, then they will be able to retain control (their antipsi abilities would prevent psychics from knowing the true intentions and/or opinions of the nobility). If they mistreat psychics, then there will likely be individual who throw off their conditioning (and their antipsi abilities would not terribly matter, as their true intentions and opinions would manifest in their treatment of the psychics).

I think that making antipsi abilities common among the nobility would explain why a lot of incompetent and/or disloyal nobles could remain in the AHE (it would also help to explain why other nations might be slow to adopt psychics if their nobility are immune/resistant). It would also moderate (though not negate) the impact of psychics of the war, as they would only be able to forsee the consequences of actions, not necessarily who or what caused the actions. For example, if the Archduke was a powerful antipsi, his psychics might have been unable to predict the exact nature of his death, just that his death would lead to war.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

I think that these point values are overly high for such a large group of people.

In one of my previous sf campaigns, the average trained psi had around 5-10 points of psionics. Now, the average trained psionic agent that the pcs ran into had about 50.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Really? I have never had a campaign where the average psychic had less than 100 CP of psionic talents and abilities. 10 CP is not even Danger Sense, Empathy, Intuition, or Luck with Psionic (-10%).

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Yeah, a 5 point trained psychic isn't going to be very useful. 10 points CAN be, but its still a very strained budget. 15 to 20 points can do a lot of low level stuff though.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Yes, you can potentially do something with 20 CP because that allows for talents and abilities, though it is still difficult to identify subtle psychics at the level. Since 20 CP is Empathy with Telepathy 1 or Intuition with ESP 1, it is quite possible that the majority of psychics at that level are unaware of their abilities. They just know that they understand people better than most people or that their gut instincts are better than most people. I think that 25-50 CP in talents or abilities would be the minimum for someone to realize that they are psychic and for testing at TL6 to reveal that they are psychic.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

A lot will depend on how psi works. For instance, does Precognition give completely reliable information, or does it give probabilities and likelihoods? Is there a range to telepathy? Can you read peoples' minds against their will? Can you mind control them? To do things really out of the ordinary, like treason, suicide or shaming themselves publicly (punch the King)?

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Average PC psychic isn't likely to be the same as the average psychic. It's not a big problem if most people who get trained are pretty much duds. But since training should be worth something I'd go with "the average trained psychic has 15 points". Of course I would be very surprised indeed if Austria got functional psychic training and Britain didn't. They were really into that stuff in the late 19th century.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Well, it depends on investment. If one government invests in psychic powers and the other government does not, then the one that does not will probably not have too many psychics. Since the subtler psychic abilities are arguably the most useful psychic abilities, it is unlikely that the British government would have spent any real money, since the MPs at the time were absolutely devoted to building up the Royal Navy.

As for CP level, you would have to have fairly significant abilities in the first place to be noticed with TL6 technology (it is not like they have genetic testing). As mentioned before, less than 25 CP in the subtler abilities will likely not be noticed and less than 25 CP in obvious abilities could be discounted as tricks (especially since many psionic attacks must have Malediction and No Signature or are already undetectable by mortal senses). Beyond that, training could improve abilities greatly, as a character could gain 1 CP worth of abilities per week of Intensive Training, meaning that an extra 25 CP per year of abilities would not be impossible.

If a psychic needs 25 CP to begin with to be noticed or not discounted, and then can receive an additional 25 CP during a year of training, 50 CP is not unreasonable. Older psychics, trained with the initial methodologies, may have fewer points in abilities, as their training may have been less comprehensive or intensive. There would also be a population of untrained psychics, people who never manifested sufficient abilities to be detected or to not be discounted, as well as psychics too dangerous or too criminal to allow to keep their powers. In those cases, conditioning could suppress their talents and their abilities, and even remove the memory of them being psychics.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Thing is with that is in terms of investment it's going to hinge one how quickly it's realised there is real potential, and getting to that point might not depend on the kind of massive resource expenditure as ramping up a national system would.

There's also the point that the UK by itself (so not counting the empire) in 1900 has double the GDP of the AH empire.

If you include the empire it also has a vast population to draw from, although this has issues as well as benefits in this context. Among them is nationalism in the British empire is as much of a thing as it is in the AH empire!

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Why is psychic training expensive?

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

I see a room, 2 chairs, a table and a deck of cards.
Could be part of a general medical exam for the military, could also be done in schools.

What I really can't understand is psychic abilities develop in one country and no other, unless there is some reason the potential appeared recently and in a small region

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Just beware so you don't get Peter Venkman on your team.

They also need a method to sort out magicians, illusionists, flim-flam artists - the Uri Gellers and Sylvia Browne's of the world.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

Which abilities would you be testing with that set up? If you are testing an ESP or Telepathy ability, reliable Clairvoyance or Mind Reading is more than 25 CP. Of course, a psychic with TK 1 would be capable of flipping the cards, but such parlor tricks are much less useful for espionage than the subtler powers.

While the British have more people and a larger economy than the AHE, that is the reason why disinformation is essential. With a few psychic agents skilled with conditioning, the AHE can cause enough high profile frauds and lunatics in Great Britain (and other nations) to claim psychic powers to inhibit the development of effective training protocols. Untrained psychics would still exist in those nations, but a successful disinformation campaign would hinder any government investment in psychic training.

If nothing else, psychic agents can be sent to discredit politicians who support public investment in psychic training. While foreign nobility may have a high likelihood of antipsi due to breeding with AHE nobility, their servants will not, and their servants can be conditioned to turn their loyalty or to change their memories. If his servants claim that the Prime Minister is a secret homosexual who has been taking money from the Germans in exchange for intelligence, he will be too busy refuting the charges to care much about developing a psychic training program.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

I think the problem here is that it is strains credibility that Austria manages establish an effective Psionic intelligence service that operates everywhere, and uses said service to keep psi secret everywhere, before anyone else even begins to start investigating psi phenomena at all. Moonshots by great powers are sometimes based on dubious propositions, but they are usually based on something. Surely any scientist who investigated psi phenomena would have published instead of keeping it quiet for the Austrians. The most plausible answer I can come up with is that somebody in the Austrian government is a powerful psi, who creates a psi training program, knowing it isn't completely dubious even though it would appear to be.

On how this would affect WW1:

1) The war is delayed, giving Austria time to prepare for the war. Maybe they manage to isolate Russia and engage in a war over the East.

2) The war isn't delayed, but Austria keeps the British out of it. France may be defeated early, and the war could end in a couple years.

3) The war isn't delayed, but Austria pulls an unimaginable number of rabbits out of their hat and the Central Powers defeat the Entente.

4) The war isn't delayed, Austria loses, but they manage to keep the minorities in line and avoid being broken apart.

5) The war isn't delayed, Austria loses, and the country disintegrates. A bunch of psychics join up with the new nations and many plot revenge against the Entente.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

What about if the war isn't delayed, but AHE intelligence helps the Germans more effectively deploy their forces against the Entente? If the AHE can defeat the Serbians earlier, they can deploy more troops with the Germans against the Russians, forcing the Russians out of the war by Spring 1916. Without the Russians in the war, the British and French forces collapse by Fall 2016, before the USA can enter the war. If it looks like the Entente is guaranteed to lose, the US Congress would be unlikely to declare war against the Central Powers.

Re: World War One Psychics [Powers]
 

That's what I have been grappling with.

1. AD Franz Ferdinand was a catalyst and not a cause. That lay with British and German interests in the Middle East (Hobsbawn's argument)

2. Ferdinand is not shot but still the outrage of the attempt and war continues.

3. AH is in no way able to match economic might of its rivals. It doesn't do too well in the 1912-3 wars in the Balkans and in the last instance loses out to the Serbs.

4. The inspiration of the Russian Revolution leads to the Hungarian revolution with leaders such as Bela Kun: 1918-20 including the Republic. Revolution in Germany over the Kiel Mutiny

5. It all goes according to history and the psychics join a certain Corporal in Germany and help build and occult following for the Nationalist movement, maybe they move from the Freikorp and assassinations of Luxembourg and Liebkneckt to supporting the NSDAP... da, da, daaaa....