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-   -   Critical success on 4+ dice (https://forums.sjgames.com/showthread.php?t=159086)

RobW 08-08-2018 05:03 AM

Critical success on 4+ dice
 
Defending and Dodging, AM p 18:
4 and 5 are still automatic hits; 20 and above automatic misses; 21 and 22 are dropped weapons; and 23 and 24 are broken weapons

RAW defending eliminates chance of 3x damage.

The new rules on weapons expertise mean there will be plenty of rolls to hit on 5D. By extrapolation of the 4D rule, this would eliminate possibility of 2x damage as well.

That's fine, but just wondering whether anyone has tried shifting things, eg
4 on 4D = 3x damage
5 on 4D = 2x damage

Skarg 08-08-2018 10:44 AM

Re: Critical success on 4+ dice
 
Sure, it's hardly even a factor though because the odds are:

4 on 4d: 1 in 1,296
5 on 5d: 1 in 7,776

Somewhat trickier is looking at the odds for each roll for each number of dice, choosing what you want to happen to the odds in each case, and then finding numbers you like.

e.g. ITL gives numbers that more or less keep the same odds at the ends of higher-die rolls, but do you want that, or do you want the odds of crit success/fail to shift for harder rolls?

Unfortunately, when I've looked at it, it seemed to me there weren't really especially convenient numbers to use that worked out the ways I was hoping for with one die roll for each number of dice.

It might work better to use the ITL "same odds" system, but if you actually do roll that, then have the figure roll the same number again - if they make it, it's a double. Roll again. If they make that, it's a triple. Or something along those lines but with some statistics checking the odds.

Nils_Lindeberg 08-08-2018 11:27 AM

Re: Critical success on 4+ dice
 
Another strange effect is that a starting 32 point character with ST16,DX8 and Full plate is actually playable. He misses a lot, but he can also take a lot of damage and he doesn't care about temporary negative adjustments to adjDX. He still lives for the 5 auto hit.

I am not saying it is a good character, but it is not the worst and some normal characters like 12/12 Broadsword/small shield guy won't win more than twice as often.

So for characters that rely on auto hit, these rules really matters. :-)

Skarg 08-08-2018 01:20 PM

Re: Critical success on 4+ dice
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Nils_Lindeberg (Post 2200756)
I am not saying it is a good character, but it is not the worst and some normal characters like 12/12 Broadsword/small shield guy won't win more than twice as often.

Depends on what they're fighting, no?

zot 08-08-2018 03:26 PM

Re: Critical success on 4+ dice
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Skarg (Post 2200744)
Sure, it's hardly even a factor though because the odds are:

4 on 4d: 1 in 1,296
5 on 5d: 1 in 7,776

Somewhat trickier is looking at the odds for each roll for each number of dice, choosing what you want to happen to the odds in each case, and then finding numbers you like.

e.g. ITL gives numbers that more or less keep the same odds at the ends of higher-die rolls, but do you want that, or do you want the odds of crit success/fail to shift for harder rolls?

Unfortunately, when I've looked at it, it seemed to me there weren't really especially convenient numbers to use that worked out the ways I was hoping for with one die roll for each number of dice.

It might work better to use the ITL "same odds" system, but if you actually do roll that, then have the figure roll the same number again - if they make it, it's a double. Roll again. If they make that, it's a triple. Or something along those lines but with some statistics checking the odds.

Had anyone talked about using different colored dice? I haven't looked at the probabilities for that yet...

Skarg 08-08-2018 04:08 PM

Re: Critical success on 4+ dice
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by zot (Post 2200866)
Had anyone talked about using different colored dice? I haven't looked at the probabilities for that yet...

Not that I recall, but it's certainly an easy way to get the exact same odds of crit success/failure. Just always have 3 dice the same color, and use those dice only to determine the usual end results on 3 dice, with the other dice only mattering if you haven't rolled a 3-5 or 16-18.

But that's only good IF that is really what you want.

Nils_Lindeberg 08-08-2018 07:44 PM

Re: Critical success on 4+ dice
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Skarg (Post 2200808)
Depends on what they're fighting, no?

It's from my sim so it is a cross of most possible 32p characters.
So if is pretty fair. :-)

I haven't included higher point characters yet, but I just added an option for weapon expertise.

zot 08-09-2018 12:46 AM

Re: Critical success on 4+ dice
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Skarg (Post 2200875)
Not that I recall, but it's certainly an easy way to get the exact same odds of crit success/failure. Just always have 3 dice the same color, and use those dice only to determine the usual end results on 3 dice, with the other dice only mattering if you haven't rolled a 3-5 or 16-18.

But that's only good IF that is really what you want.

I think it is.

RobW 08-09-2018 06:51 AM

Re: Critical success on 4+ dice
 
Below I've added a table of probabilities for critical success/failures on 3d, 4d, and 5d attacks. For 4D and 5D I've also included the required rolls, taken from RAW for 4D, and what turned out to be very close for 5D.

Code:

Outcome .            3D .    4D .            5D
3x damage        0.5        zero .              zero
2x damage        1.4        0.1 .            zero
auto-hit .          2.8        0.3 .            0.01
auto-miss        2.8        2.7 (20)        2.6 (24)
drop wpn            1.4        2.3 (21-22)        2.5 (25-26)
break wpn            0.5        0.4 (23-24)        0.8 (27-30)

Pardon the extra .'s they are inserted to get columns aligned

RobW 08-09-2018 06:54 AM

Re: Critical success on 4+ dice
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Skarg (Post 2200875)
Just always have 3 dice the same color, and use those dice only to determine the usual end results on 3 dice, with the other dice only mattering if you haven't rolled a 3-5 or 16-18.

That's an elegant solution, works regardless of number of extra dice and yet requires no new numbers/cut-offs to memorize.

I am a little worried that increasing the number of dice rolled for difficult attempts doesn't scale beautifully if you don't slide the chance of crit successes as well as failures.

If generalised beyond combat, it also means that saving throws, eg on 5D are not only basically impossible but remove the fun possibilities of an unlikely critical success.

I think because of this, we will give Skarg's suggestion a try.


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