Re: New Reality Seeds
 

I've bought a book that is about how the UK missed out on the first A Bomb. I've not read Churchill's Bomb yet. However, the ads and the fluff on the dust jacket say that it would have made a big difference if Britain had gotten the bomb first.

Really?

I could see Berlin being bombed if Churchill had had the bomb before February of 1945. He'd have been much more assertive at Yalta. But would that really have changed anything?

Britain was still going down economically and wasn't willing to do what it took (like fully educating the masses, ditching the Empire, or joining a United States of Europe) to thrive. Stalin doesn't seem to have ever really feared the bomb and was merely offended when people stood up to him. FDR did about as well as anyone in managing Stalin, mainly because Stalin never got the idea that there were advantages in trust and cooperation.

So, what am I missing. Would the UK getting the Bomb first really have changed anything?

One thing we know, if Centrum reads that book they'll move in every parallel to help Britain get the Bomb first!

What a game. Help Sir Winston beat both the Nazis and Centrum. After all Winston would have smelled out just what kind of rats the Centrum guys are. He'd use them, yes he'd use them, but he'd seek to see them trounced as well.

Re: New Reality Seeds
 

Well, the basic problem is that the UK couldn't afford a bomb project run at the speed necessary to get it before the USA. Diverting that much money to a project so secret you couldn't tell the US or USSR about it would reduce conventional military capabilities significantly. That would upset both of those allies and could lead to the US prioritising Japan and the USSR making a separate peace with Germany.

So the book's premise seems ill-founded. It may well claim that if the UK had made a specific technical choices, it could have done the job, but that's hindsight. Nobody really knew which routes would work, hence the various surprises in the Manhattan Project.

Re: New Reality Seeds
 

Close to my thoughts, but with added insights. Yes, Britain was cash strapped.

That said, what do you think the outcome of the Brits nuking Berlin in 1942 (we'll assume they get Hitler but enough leading Nazis are left alive to talk surrender) would be? Would Stalin be warier? Would the Japanese seek terms? How would it effect relations with the US?

Re: New Reality Seeds
 

Try this one. The parallel Hollywood-1 was long known to Homeline, being amoung the first couple of dozen parallels discovered. Until recently the simple facts that
A) James Dean didn't have a fatal car wreck until 1964 and made twenty more films, most of them either European or independents because of the scandal caused by his bisexuality, B) Orsen Wells was more self controlled and both stayed thin and got a major film made every twenty months until his death in 1983 (cancer), and C) Kathrine Hepburn leaves acting in 1960 to become a director screenwriter, this world's Pauline Kael saying, KH wrote like she was the Bastard child of Preston Surges and Jane Austin and directed like she was the bastard child of Howard Hawks and Jean Renoir. These were enough to get Homeline hooked. since then they discovered over two hundred major to highly impressive films made or preserved on this world that were either lost or never made on Homeline.

Lately, local year 2009, something else has come up. Hollywood-1 had long been somewhat advanced in biotechnology, in fact by 2004 also as advanced as Homeline, but there has been a new product realized lately that makes no sense to Homeline.

The new product is a probiotic, it should, going by the local biotech level, simply reduce digestive and regularity problems and facilitate weight-loss (this fits real world tech trends). However the product seems to be a gift that keeps on giving. Users have basically the Sanitized Metabolism perk plus heighten resistance to disease and a large number of chronic illnesses just disappear. None of this is impossible, Homeline research and the advanced biotechnologies of several worlds make it plain that it isn't. However, no product could be this good by pure accident. What's going on?

This Q5 world has both Cabal and Centrum presence. How Centrum gets here is still mysterious. They are also interested in the answers too.

What gives? Is the person or force behind the probiotic also behind the changes in Hollywood? Are outsiders bringing in new tech? Is there a plan? And what is the plan?

Re: New Reality Seeds
 

The actual date in 1942 makes a difference. There are other devils in the details, too.

For a start, it would probably be necessary to use at least two nukes, to demonstrate that it wasn't a one-off. Many senior Nazis had an understanding of science and technology that's well-modelled by their contemporary B-movies (that was where they learned about it), and their system greatly privileged the views of whoever was in charge, who had often got the job on political grounds. Hitler was more competent than many of the hacks he surrounded himself with, which gives you some idea of what nonentities they were.

Whenever it happens, it may cause the US Congress to terminate Lend-Lease "since the British obviously don't need it" and may make it difficult for FDR to get re-elected. A German surrender may also mean Germany does not get remade, which means that a late 1950s Third World War with nukes becomes distinctly conceivable.

If it happens late in 1942 after the US elections and the invasion of North Africa, things may turn out in a more familiar way. The Germans will be more willing to surrender once the mess in Stalingrad becomes known, the Soviets will want to occupy Germany, and the Germans may accept occupation by the Western Allies to avoid the Soviets taking the whole country. If the bomb is a surprise to Stalin, he'll probably be all nice for a few years while the secrets are stolen.

As for Japan, they will feel safe while they can keep their enemies at sufficient range that they can't be subjected to heavy bombing. The shortcut round that is British Lancasters flying from the Vladivostok area, but Stalin's price will be information on the bombs. Quite the dilemma.

Re: New Reality Seeds
 

The Americans will probably be curious to know why the bomb tech wasn't part of the Tizard Mission. (The real-world version did have a memo describing the feasibility of an atomic bomb, along with other top tech like radar, proximity fuses, a jet engine, plastic explosives...)

Re: New Reality Seeds
 

The biggest difference would likely be that the Brits would not be eclipsed as a world power by the US, instead remaining an equal power. Colonialism would likely have had a slower messier death.

Re: New Reality Seeds
 

What, you imagine the British are going to use nuclear weapons to suppress Indian independence? Um...no. The British are low on money and manpower for obvious reasons at that point, and India is too big to really be held against its will at any point, and the USA (which isn't out of money or manpower, and holds much of Britain's foreign debt) wants the Empire broken up. The failure to share nuclear technology probably cools relations between the USA and UK a bit, making them even more eager to dismember the Empires.

I do see a third world war here though, perhaps over Hungary in '57? The American simply haven't lost enough to be deeply wary and weary of a reprise. The war in Europe is over 6 months after the USA formally enters. Postwar culture could be interesting, in that much less interest (in the USA) will be shown in Hitler and the great enemy to the Americans would clearly be the Japanese. Many more camp survivors.

Re: New Reality Seeds
 

I'm not sure about that. Australia, Canada, Ireland, Newfoundland, New Zealand, and South Africa were all practically independent before WWII began - why would the decolonialism process stop or slow just because the UK had The Bomb?

Re: New Reality Seeds
 

Colonialism;

Assuming a war won in 1942, I don't see a UK that is as out of resources as in our world, or a US that has risen as far, this would likely limit US pressure on the UK. Note that a NAZI loss in 1942 would be before the death camps were set up and running at speed, without this "proof" of evil" WWII will appear to be "more of the same" in Europe's history of constant squabbles to the US, encouraging a return to Isolationism.

India may become a serious member of the Common Wealth, or leave, it is big enough to do so. The main differences I see are in Africa, and the Pacific Islands. The UK would likely spend more time shifting control over to locals, and maintaining international interest in their affairs, eventually leading to a larger and stronger Commonwealth, instead of our world's abandonment and leaving Africa to proxy brushfire wars between the US and Russia. How well this works, I don't know, it would depend on how far the US drops back into isolationism, and Russia being more cautious if they can't replicate nuclear weapons as quickly in this timeline.