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Astromancer 05-23-2015 01:18 PM

Re: New Reality Seeds
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by johndallman (Post 1902763)
Indonesia is the place for them. Their ability to take it vastly outweighs the Netherlands' ability to defend it.

Interesting, and the Southern Union might grab off other pieces of the Dutch East Indies. This could be a constant low-level conflict, a cold war, a bitter truce, or the basis of an alliance.

Coolly playable John Dallman.

Astromancer 05-23-2015 01:20 PM

Re: New Reality Seeds
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by scc (Post 1902890)
The Japanese conquest of China was either already underway in the 1930's or was about to kick off, what's going to change here is that no one is going to try and STOP them, and if the US falls apart their probably NOT going to make the moves that ultimately got people upset at them

Which is why I saw them holding on to chunks of China's Southern coast.

The main limit on Japanese expansion in this scenario is the collapse of both Japanese trade and agriculture. Japan was driven to expand by it's fragility.

Astromancer 05-23-2015 01:34 PM

Re: New Reality Seeds
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Gedrin (Post 1902942)
That was my thought. They're within a year of invading Manchuria on the base timeline. The Republic of China will be in less of a position to sustain opposition, and frankly, starvation is only going to moderately increase resistance compared to the original timeline's brutality.

I'd think the biggest catch would be supplying the initial invasions with food. Certainly the Japanese people would be willing to endure hardship to sustain a victory, but until conquered provinces begin producing food, the invasion supply lines are vital (and tempting) targets.

This makes sense. Maybe the Japanese move south to take easier targets like French Indochina and the Dutch East Indies.

Quote:

All in all I think the following are most reasonable:

I suspect England would prefer to use commerce, tech and integration as it's methods, but will be pushed toward military force in some regions. Given the need for a more "old school Empire", you might get Churchill back into power a few years earlier.
Sounds like sense.

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French colonies will be a mixed bag, but I suspect chaos and soundly suppressed revolutionary movements. However, I figure some of the colonies will break free because...
Myself, I recycled an idea from an old supers game and had the French cross the Mediterranian Sea to the colony in Algeria and then take all of North Africa, remembering to not tick off the Brits in Egypt. Increased rains provide the food supply.

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Europe catches fire. Pillage, burn, revolution, mayhem, Russians. Total nightmare.

Russia, starving more than normal, essentially disintegrates, likely clawing a few neighbors down on the way, as is traditional. However, they do manage to export communism effectively to everywhere, as industrial governments in crisis try to manage the limited food resources.
Agreed. Lack of food in societies already under brutal stress.

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The US begins to assimilate Mexico, if only economically, but probably with a smile and cash in one hand and the other hand patting a cannon. Integrated transport and food networks, probable military basing.
Roosevelt was very respectful of Latin America. Economically, these areas were already assimilated. FDR would use the gentle but firm touch.

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Imperial Japanese expansion throughout their region. If the initial invasions go well, they're heading toward being the dominant regional power for a few decades. I don't see that as sustainable long term, but for a while, sure.

Basket case countries in newly prosperous climes remain basket cases. Extra cash has never really lead to good governance or resource management. Stronger nations will attempt to dominate the food production in order to make it more secure.
This makes sense.

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This is all very interesting, but I'd be even more interested in the 60 years later scenario when the climate is recovering. Pop drop. Plentiful food. Open resources. Room to grow. You've got all the makings of a second renaissance (with volcano standing in for plague this time), but governments have been in survival mode for 2 generations. Food and resources are rationed and controlled, and I see nothing in history that leads me to believe that kind of power is released freely.
The basic idea of this setting is that the climate started shifting back around the year 2000AD. We are now in a climatic regime much like the early 20th century. The USA is on the edge of TL8, and the world is about to take off.

Astromancer 05-23-2015 01:58 PM

Re: New Reality Seeds
 
To make it easier on folks discussing the Supervolcano timeline I add the following. The place is named Thaw-1 , the Thaw designation is now for every parallel where an ice-age or similar disaster has come to and end recently.

The supervolcano was in the Belgian Congo. The eruption was in 1938.

Spring failed to come to Northern Europe in 1939, Hitler lauched his forces east in July of that year. The war was a brutal pointless mess that made everyone look silly and vile.

The Spanish Civil war was still won by Franco, but the eccological colapse brought his government down in the early 1940's

Regular rains started falling in both North Africa and the American Southwest in 1939 as well. Australia started having heavier rains the next year. New Zealand got colder, but not nearly as much as northern hemisphere countries. This was a matter of oceanic circulation.

More details as I come up with them.

Gedrin 05-23-2015 08:33 PM

Re: New Reality Seeds
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Astromancer (Post 1903102)
The basic idea of this setting is that the climate started shifting back around the year 2000AD. We are now in a climatic regime much like the early 20th century. The USA is on the edge of TL8, and the world is about to take off.

I think "explode" is a pretty good descriptor of what the world is about to do. The majority of surviving governments have seized control of production and distribution of materials, probably seen as a necessity by all at the start of the crisis. TL 8 is far too optimistic. I'd think low TL 7 at best. Seventy years of strict control and tight resources just doesn't seem likely to produce the same levels of innovation that Homeline 2000 had. The die off has killed so many people that you're going to be lucky to retain tech and not loose it.

Thaw-1 in 2000 is a world of vastly available resources, plentiful food, open spaces and governments that make Stalin look like a Care Bear. Those governments are full of people who've spent their entire career shooting people who are eating too much. Again, possibly as a survival necessity, but they're not going to want to loose their jobs, and they're not going to react well to radicals who want to change farming methods or control their own food supplies. I suppose you could have a world where the emergency doesn't span this type of reaction, or where the absolute power over food distribution isn't maintained, but I don't see historical rationale for it.

You could have a second renaissance, but you're likely to get a second round of guillotine revolutions first. More likely you'll get the same sort of dystopian control combined with megaprojects and the like. It's a world of very wealthy East Germanies.

Astromancer 05-24-2015 11:52 AM

Re: New Reality Seeds
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Gedrin (Post 1903210)
I think "explode" is a pretty good descriptor of what the world is about to do. The majority of surviving governments have seized control of production and distribution of materials, probably seen as a necessity by all at the start of the crisis. TL 8 is far too optimistic. I'd think low TL 7 at best. Seventy years of strict control and tight resources just doesn't seem likely to produce the same levels of innovation that Homeline 2000 had. The die off has killed so many people that you're going to be lucky to retain tech and not loose it.

You play it your way. Maybe a Cabalist decided that Thaw-1 meet his or her needs and snuck in out time tech which slowly got diffused. Also, government regulation does not equal fascism. The new Deal was not the moral equivalent of the Stalinist Purges or the Gestapo. The USA is the 20th century saw itself as innovative and innovation as a high good. Given the crisis, that would be encouraged!

Quote:

Thaw-1 in 2000 is a world of vastly available resources, plentiful food, open spaces and governments that make Stalin look like a Care Bear. Those governments are full of people who've spent their entire career shooting people who are eating too much. Again, possibly as a survival necessity, but they're not going to want to loose their jobs, and they're not going to react well to radicals who want to change farming methods or control their own food supplies. I suppose you could have a world where the emergency doesn't span this type of reaction, or where the absolute power over food distribution isn't maintained, but I don't see historical rationale for it.
That might fly in frozen Europe, but the New Deal USA? You're projecting the politics and fears of today backwards. You're also mistaking FDR for a fascist.

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You could have a second renaissance, but you're likely to get a second round of guillotine revolutions first. More likely you'll get the same sort of dystopian control combined with megaprojects and the like. It's a world of very wealthy East Germanies.
In the USA, which would be nearly uniquely positioned, the stress would be mammoth, but the nation would make it through. There were aspects of civil society, which both conservative policy and comsumer society have gotten rid of that would have gotten America through. A modern day USA would have a harder time in the crisis because we have had our democracy weakened over the decades.

Other societies would be undergoing crisis.

Astromancer 05-24-2015 11:55 AM

Re: New Reality Seeds
 
Further note on Thaw-1. Australia, during the cold snap had regular rains. Now, unlike our world's Australia, the soils were rich enough for this to make Australia's agriculture very productive. The population got up to sixty-million people.

Now the weather has moved back, and Australia is experiencing a serious drought. At least relative to their needs.

This is causing massive destabilization in the Indian Ocean basin.

Phil Masters 05-24-2015 01:32 PM

Re: New Reality Seeds
 
Are you assuming the better soils as an additional divergence point, or are you assuming Australia's mostly rather thin and grotty soils magically become deeper and richer as a result of the supervolcano?

warellis 05-24-2015 04:04 PM

Re: New Reality Seeds
 
Regarding Thaw-1, might it be at TL8 in certain areas while TL7 in other areas? Like due to having to be efficient with agriculture, might their agriculture tech or techniques be more advanced than TL7 due to having to utilize space or farming techniques as efficiently as possible?

Gedrin 05-24-2015 05:30 PM

Re: New Reality Seeds
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Astromancer (Post 1903308)
You play it your way. Maybe a Cabalist decided that Thaw-1 meet his or her needs and snuck in out time tech which slowly got diffused. Also, government regulation does not equal fascism. The new Deal was not the moral equivalent of the Stalinist Purges or the Gestapo. The USA is the 20th century saw itself as innovative and innovation as a high good. Given the crisis, that would be encouraged!



That might fly in frozen Europe, but the New Deal USA? You're projecting the politics and fears of today backwards. You're also mistaking FDR for a fascist.



In the USA, which would be nearly uniquely positioned, the stress would be mammoth, but the nation would make it through. There were aspects of civil society, which both conservative policy and comsumer society have gotten rid of that would have gotten America through. A modern day USA would have a harder time in the crisis because we have had our democracy weakened over the decades.

Other societies would be undergoing crisis.

I think you're underestimating the reduction of global population by 2/3 due to starvation. Even assuming the US gets off light, say only 10% of people die, martial law and communist style control are the least of the impositions you'll find. But as you say, play it your way.


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