Low-Tech Kingdom Population Density?
I have a low-tech fantasy kingdom, isolated from the rest of the world due to accidents of geography, history and magic. It is intended to be self-sufficient at TL 4~ and so can thereby be assumed to have a minimum population of 700,000 using the numbers on (GURPS Space, pg 91) as a guideline. The available geography for said kingdom is 3,472 square miles of arable land. With a minimum population of 700,000, this gives a minimum population density of 202~.
I'm not sure that is a reasonable number. If it is reasonable, how high can I take it before it becomes unreasonable? If it isn't reasonable, how low should I reduce it to? Sources so I can figure this out for myself are welcome! (At 700,000~ population, it has a per-capita income of G$12,480, Average Wealth and an economic volume of G$8,736,000,000. It doesn't have a trade volume as it has no trade with outside kingdoms. Average Wealth's monthly income is G$800, a CR of 3, a MBF of 2% and so it has a G$11,200,000 monthly budget for the kingdom's military and police forces.) |
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Do a google for: medieval demographics easy ross
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That kind of population density might work if 100% of the land was arable. Otherwise, I just don't see it. I think with S.J. Ross's Medieval Demographics, you could get an area that was 66% arable and population densities of 120~.
Edit: here is an automated version of the Ross thingie |
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To give an idea, 700,000 people is one large TL 4 city like Ptolemaic Alexandria, imperial Rome, Queen Anne's London, Tokugawa Tokyo, or any of several Chinese capitals. |
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Yes, but Magic.
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Ah well. |
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Not develop it (as they didn't develop it themselves in the first place), but maintain an existing body of knowledge and the infrastructure necessary to make use of it? |
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I'm late to the population density party, but there's an article in Pyramid #52 which covers land use and support of urban centers. You can use that to figure out population densities in a GURPS-friendly way.
I suspect you'd need a population of several millions, if not tens of millions, to do TL4. In addition to encompassing a great many craft industries, those industries imply a lot of specialized extraction and processing industries, which in turn imply the need to cover a lot of space and to be supported by a vastly larger population. Moreover, without a large and well-populated setting, some of the hallmarks of TL4 civilizations (elaborate architecture, various navigational developments) won't be practice, and since these are things which are generally transmitted by what amounts to oral tradition rather than by reference books, they'll vanish if they don't get used. |
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guesswork, I did not have the time for any research, but perhaps it shows one possible way to approach the problem. First, a TL 4 society needs a lot of different specialists to function. I do not have a reliable number, but I think that 500 types of specialists (artists, bu- reaucrats, craftspeople, merchants, physicians, scholars, etc.) is not too far from the truth. Second, a single specialist is not enough to serve the society and keep the tradition of the specialty alive, so each specialty will need a small communi- ty of its specialists. There are specialties where comparatively few people are required, for example astronomers, and specialties where a lot of people are needed, for example bakers. Lacking reliable data, I would think that an average of 100 people per specialty could do. With 500 specialties and 100 specialists each we would get a total of 50,000 people. Third, these 50,000 people have families, with parents, partners and children. Since magic is available to fight diseases, the number of children per family can be lower than in our world's history, but I still think that the average fa- mily should have 5 members. Which gets us 50,000 specialists with 5 family members each, a total of approximately 250,000 people. Fourth, now we have got the specialists and their families, the core of the urban population. Someone has to feed them, to create and transport the various raw materials, and all that. I would assume that at least 80% of the entire population are of that kind, so the 250,000 people mentioned above are no more than about 20% of the population. If 250,000 people are 20%, the entire population should be approximately 1,250,000 people. My gut feeling (again, I have no reliable data) is that my numbers are on the conservative side, so for one of my own settings I would think that 1.5 milli- on people as the base of a TL 4 society could be made plausible. |
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Britain has always been a pretty rich place. Even at the height of the Empire trade accounted for less than half the economic activity of the country (for 1900 per capita income 44 L, per capita trade (imports + exports) 18L 14s). Sure losing 42% of your economy would be really bad news, but it's not dropping several TLs bad news. The Great Depression knocked 30 to 35% off global GDP without doing much to the global TL. |
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Since this is fantasy, I would think if it's your own world/creation, you could have whatever population density you want. I've used the online medieval demographics site, and I think it's great for getting in the ball park for earth-like conditions. But I'm sure there are worlds out there that break all the rules. Just some up with some reason why a really high population density can support itself. Unless, of course, you are looking for earth-like realism. If that's the case, disregard what I just said, go with what everyone else is saying! :)
Tim |
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Just the double-harvest from Bless crops could radically change your population ratio. Instead of each farmer feeding roughly 1.25 people, you can now feed ~2.5 people/farmer and you have gone from 80% farmers to 40% farmers. Taking the 250K specialists/townsfolk from Rust above, you now only need ~170K farmers instead of 1 million farmers, thus putting you inside your 700K target population. This also happens to coincide well with towns/cities being relatively close together as depicted in many fantasy settings. |
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And anyway, he doesn't even touch what are probably the two biggest distinguishing innovations of TL4 - guns and printing. Nobody is going to give up guns, and individual smiths are entirely able to manufacture them. Though I will admit powder is likely to get more expensive - England *has* sulphur sources, Bath for instance, but a lot of TL4 production comes from Sicily. A society with nothing Roman villagers don't have except flintlocks and printed Bibles probably still looks more like TL4 than TL2. |
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For raw materials, we already discussed alum (and disagreed about it ... I don't have time to research the question). Without the mines of the Tirol, there would also be problems with gold and silver shortages. Some specialized ores aren't available any more, and even if they can be found the English must invent how to work them since much of that knowledge is in the heads of foreign guildsmasters. On the bright side, there are no more foreign luxuries like silk to buy with silver anyways. The best armourers are in Flanders, the Germanies, and Lombardy. England can produce plenty of common armour, but new suits for the rich will be inferior to the old, and it has to take work away from other tasks to produce as much armour as it used to consume. When English kings wanted to improve their industry, they imported workers from the Low Countries and the Germanies, but this is no longer possible. The key developments in gunpowder technology were on the continent, although the English were not bad at gun-founding. Elizabeth's England depended on overseas powder mills and arquebus makers, which was a problem when she got into her Spanish war. Once again, when Elizabeth or Henry VIII wanted to improve their native powder and smallarms industry, they imported workers from Flanders and the Germanies. This is no longer possible, and with only one island chain's wars, buyers, and tinkerers improvements will be even slower. With less and worse armour, the arquebus loses a key advantage over the longbow. The limitations of gunpowder technology and the end of trade across the North Sea, the Bay of Biscay, and the Mediterranean cut off a lot of exciting developments in shipbuilding, rigging, navigation, and so on. The experts call this a North Sea technology for a reason ... it was developed all around the North Sea and Baltic with developments by individual captains and shipwrights influencing others in different countries. The collapse of trade and the end of continental wars also devastates port cities like London and the Cinque Ports. With just fishing and coastal trade and pirate-fighting, their population is likely to shrink. England was already rustic, and it gets more so. A lot of the best cloth mills were in Flanders, so England loses its comparative advantage in wool production and has to weave more of its own cloth. Without any export market, these probably won't be as advanced as the best Flemish mills. Pasture falls out of use, and men who were doing other things turn to weaving. A lot of the most exciting developments in scholarship are happening in Italy and Flanders. These vanish: no more people like Tito Livio, and no more correspondence with Poggio Bracciolino or authors-turned-spies picking up the latest tricks of the storyteller's trade in Milan. England is on its own culturally, and doesn't have a flood of new classical texts. It will never rediscover the Greek classics, because nobody in England in 1450 can read Greek, because most of the manuscripts are in other countries, and because there are no more enthusiastic Greeks and Italians to encourage English scholars to learn it. Its access to Arabic and Persian literature ends, and the exiled Jews just over the channel and their learning are gone too. Without Italian, Flemish, and Dutch paintings to use as an example art history develops differently. Without wandering master builders from the continent, buildings are less sophisticated. The printing press was about to be invented. The idea may have reached England, but without a proof-of-concept on the continent (and Flemish paper mills to import from) it may never be developed. Hopped beer was being developed around this time because it could be shipped from the Germanies to England without spoiling. Without this demand, the English probably stick to small beer brewed on a small scale. (See Richard Unger's Beer in the Middle Ages). So the result is a poorer Britain without the latest gadgets and cultural innovations. It does not have libraries of tens of thousands of codices, cities of hundreds of thousands of people, large oceangoing ships, and other technologies which characterized the societies which I said that this kingdom could not resemble (I am not using TL jargon here, because I consider it useless for serious discussion). |
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culture which did give up almost all of a well developed firearms technology. As for printing, this depends a lot on the degree of literacy and the size of the population, with too few people able to read there is simply no sufficient market for printed books to keep the craft alive. Overall I think that an iso- lated, low population society of TL 4 would become far more "rural" than our world's historical examples of this technology level, with a technology deve- lopment and slow progress focussed mostly on fields like for example agricul- ture, mining and the basic crafts and little change from previous technology levels in its culture and in the theoretical sciences - more a kind of slow im- provement of the late Middle Ages than a Renaissance. |
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A few million people appears to be sufficient; giving a population density of 865~ per square mile of arable land. This buffs their economic volume, even absent trade, which increases the funding available to field and maintain military/police forces. Thats' a lot of people though! ... somewhere between modern Japan (at 873) and the modern Philippines (at 846). Quote:
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As GURPS Low-Tech explains, moving stuff on rivers is about 5 times cheaper than moving stuff over land, and moving stuff over the sea is about 25 times cheaper than moving it over land. |
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A Romanist whose name escapes me (edit: Bryan Ward-Perkins, The Fall of Rome and the End of Civilization) uses the example of kitchenware and roof tiles. Lots of ordinary people had attractive, durable, easy-to-clean kitchenware, and roofs which lasted a long time without leaking or rotting, under the empire. Then quite suddenly in Late Antiquity this vanishes, and people go back to thatched roofs and more expensive, harder-to-clean, uglier pots made by their neighbours. Can you give an area of material culture which you think saw changes between equally good systems? |
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A valid point for a more general case, though. |
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The constraint isn't flexible, and so I've started looking for ways to make it reasonable. The answer is likely going to be one of the other requested details, "who practice an alien form of magic"; the idea of enchanted 3D-jigsaw-puzzle boulders acting as terraforming devices has been floated for my consideration. |
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Would your constraints allow the people to practice a form of agriculture that is drastically more productive than European open-field seasonal agriculture in a cool temperate zone? With adequate water and labour, tropical rice agriculture produces several times more food per hectare per year, and I think there was a system in Mexico that was also far more productive than European practices: chinampa.
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Which, it seems to me, is consistent with what actually happened in Edo period Japan, although they didn't cut off all foreign trade, and they did seem to have a significantly higher population (estimates seem to be 20 million-ish in 1650). |
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http://irri.org/ indicates that the biological nitrogen fixation due to the flooded fields effect allows stable yields up to 3 tons per-hectare per-crop without requiring additional fertilizers. Crops are harvestable about 120 days after establishment; roughly three crops a year then. Saethwyr has an arable land value of 3,470~ square miles, which is 898k~ hectares. Assuming no more than 20% of the available land being used for such purposes, that gives 179,600 hectares. At 3 tons per hectare and 3 crops per year, that works out to roughly 1,616,400 tons of rice per year. WolframAlpha says that roughly a dozen servings of wild rice per day would meet the 2k calories daily requirement. Assuming seafood and other foodstuffs is used to make up the difference in calories, minerals and vitamins ... thats' 1,968 grams of rice per-day per-person. There are 907,185 grams in a ton. 1,616,400 (tons per year) * 907,185 (grams per ton) / 1,968 (grams eaten per day) / 365 (days per year) = 2,041,393 (people fed 2k calorie diets per year). Hmm. Quote:
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The population of Edo Japan was one reason why I guessed that tens of millions of people would be required. |
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Also, what about landform? Rice fields have to be level and edged by bunds so that they can be flooded, and have drains so that they can be drained. And they need water supplies with catchments and tanks and aqueducts: if the rains are seasonal water storage has to be huge. The kind of landscape actually prepared to grow three crops of rice per year has had a lot of work done on it, and is distinctive. Java is fantastic. Quote:
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I am thinking Malthus here, what keeps the population in check? Shouldn't there be hunger, conflict, outright warfare?
How long has this been going on? There must be a lot of resources being depleted. It is incredibly difficult to create a self-sustaining closed system. |
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Monsters, and only being near-human. Long answer: A long time ago there was a war. Nasty thing it was. Some of the weapons from that time remain dangerous; one of those weapons was intended to decimate civilian targets, provide area/resource denial and generate disposable self-directing weapons by consuming the local ambient mana (itself a resource the designers wanted to deny their opponents). It, ah, was more successful than expected. Its' success was made even more unfortunate with the defeat and mass-slaughter of its' creators; everyone still alive, and their descendents, are all identified as enemies by these weapon systems. And so when the local mana reaches the appropriate thresholds, monsters happen. This is a worldwide problem, mind. This particular kingdom has a very large monster problem due to the nature of their magics; their magics don't consume mana -- thereby monsters happen frighteningly often, in unpredictable patterns and at unpredictable locations. Good thing they have guns! (Heh.) On top of the semi-regular deaths due to monstrous incursions, their reproductive strategy has been tampered with by their gods when they were placed at their present location. The details of which are complicated, but one can assume they have perfect meditation-based contraceptives available to their women that they must learn in order to become fertile in the first place. Sexual behavior is human-normal but fertility itself is a learned skill for both their men and their women. (... a religiously-mandated skill taught to everyone by the religious class as part of their welcome-to-adulthood rituals. Yes, this has caused problems before. Heh.) Quote:
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Short, mild winters and long, hot summers with many storms and showers. Quote:
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