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Old 09-06-2017, 02:10 PM   #51
Tomsdad
 
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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Originally Posted by whswhs View Post
Realistically, a patient before the nineteenth century would not be expected to survive internal surgery.
Yes to a degree. It's more about what's gone wrong, what's being done and by whom. Not all surgery's were equally risky, but in general yeah you wouldn't leap at the chance to go under the knife.

My point was more that by the MA rules you don't really have much of a choice, it will be risk surgery or have v.high risk of bleeding death without it. Devil and the deep blue sea, kind of thing


Irony being one cause of not surviving surgery is of course the surgeon causing/exacerbating internal bleeding while performing surgery!

Last edited by Tomsdad; 09-07-2017 at 12:33 AM.
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Old 09-06-2017, 02:26 PM   #52
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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...
It depends a lot on where your HT before the penalty is. At 10, your chances of not bleeding out with that sort of penalty are rather bad (though you've always got crit-fishing). 12+, you've got a real possibility of pulling through.
Well OK, yeah but at the risk of getting into a stat normalisation debate (let's not, and say we did) 12+ HT is a high stat, certainly in terms of a general expectations.


And even then lets take HT12 and the lowest possible bleed mod of -4 (so 1 point of damage to the vitals becoming a 3 point wound and no extra bleeding penalty)

you need to make 3 consecutive rolls at 8 which is 0.26x0.26x0.26 = 2%

And of course you are on the clock because you have a 74% of losing a hp every 30 seconds. Of course if it's not a 3 point wound you not only going have more bleeding pens, but you'll have less time on the clock.
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Old 09-06-2017, 03:37 PM   #53
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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you need to make 3 consecutive rolls at 8 which is 0.26x0.26x0.26 = 2%
It's a good deal more complicated than that - the probability of never suffering bleeding damage from such a wound is roughly 2%, but you end up with multiple overlapping checks of 2% (~1.75%, actually) over time, with false starts still serving to give you more time on the clock (as you don't suffer damage on a success). Additionally, each roll has a ~1.85% chance of stopping bleeding outright, by rolling a Critical Success. An ST 10, HT 12 individual who suffers a 3 HP injury to the Vitals can expect roughly 23 rolls (as he'll only fail ~74% of them) before he hits the point where he needs to make a death check. The chance of not rolling a Critical Success during that time is 65%. Those 23 rolls also have roughly 21 chances for the 1.75% to come up*, with a 69% of that never happening. There's overlap between the two, and thanks to the possibility of Critical Failures (losing 3 HP) you actually have a bit fewer than 23/21 rolls, but you could probably eyeball things at around a 35% chance of stopping bleeding before the first death check (65% chance of failing to do so). A character with HT 12 has a 74% chance of pulling through a death check without issue (16.7% of a mortal wound, 9.34% of outright death), giving him another 13 or so shots of stopping bleeding. Overall, the character is in bad shape, but is far from guaranteed to die.

*I believe the math for the probability is more involved than this, but I'm not certain how to properly do it, and this is probably good enough for a ballpark estimate.
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Old 09-06-2017, 04:54 PM   #54
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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*I believe the math for the probability is more involved than this, but I'm not certain how to properly do it, and this is probably good enough for a ballpark estimate.
For giggles I'm going to write a little program and leave it running the numbers a few million times while I'm making myself some dinner.
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Old 09-06-2017, 04:55 PM   #55
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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Well OK, yeah but at the risk of getting into a stat normalisation debate (let's not, and say we did) 12+ HT is a high stat, certainly in terms of a general expectations.


And even then lets take HT12 and the lowest possible bleed mod of -4 (so 1 point of damage to the vitals becoming a 3 point wound and no extra bleeding penalty)

you need to make 3 consecutive rolls at 8 which is 0.26x0.26x0.26 = 2%

And of course you are on the clock because you have a 74% of losing a hp every 30 seconds. Of course if it's not a 3 point wound you not only going have more bleeding pens, but you'll have less time on the clock.
We've done this thing before, it is a solved problem.
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Old 09-06-2017, 06:07 PM   #56
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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For giggles I'm going to write a little program and leave it running the numbers a few million times while I'm making myself some dinner.
Wouldn't it be easier to derive a general solution than to run a simulation?
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Old 09-06-2017, 06:09 PM   #57
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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Wouldn't it be easier to derive a general solution than to run a simulation?
Which we did both in the other thread...
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Old 09-06-2017, 06:42 PM   #58
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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Wouldn't it be easier to derive a general solution than to run a simulation?
Frequently, no. Writing a simulator like that only takes a few minutes.
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Old 09-06-2017, 06:57 PM   #59
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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Frequently, no. Writing a simulator like that only takes a few minutes.
I've solved a number of dice rolling problems and only taken a few minutes, too. Not all of them, of course. But a lot of gaming probability questions turn out to be quite straightforward.
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Old 09-06-2017, 10:50 PM   #60
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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[snipped] you may want to use an optional rule (from an article by Eric Funk) which was considered during the Bio-Tech playtest. (It didn't make it in, but I've used it frequently enough that I often forget that!) Basically, treat the extra injury from the vitals wounding multiplier as inherently unhealing; e.g., if you take 3 penetrating damage to the vitals, which becomes 9 HP of injury, the first 3 HP are normal but the remaining 6 HP are unhealing. Then the Surgery skill can be used to convert (margin of success + 1) of those HP to normal injury. It's harsh, but realistic. (Note that, even with this rule, the Surgery skill is only used to facilitate healing, not to recover HP directly.)
Just curious, did this rule include the ability to try again at a penalty?
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