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Old 04-09-2016, 10:02 AM   #21
AlexanderHowl
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Default Re: [ATE] Farming example

The only problem with the farming town is that it would be impossible to wall in the farmland. If you are working on a TL 4 infrastructure, the highest level sustainable with such a small population, with TL 9 artifacts, you would need around one acre of cultivated land per person for maximum variety of diet (which is the sustainable level required for a non-Western diet). Careful management can increase carrying capacity to ten people per acre at TL4, but it requires massive inputs of manure, more than could be produced by a community of 100 people. You would probably also require an additional four acres per capita of coppiced woodlands to generate sufficient lumber and firewood, as well as mushrooms, for your people if they are facing an Ice Age environment.

The problem with a SALT facility is the power requirement. If you are pure vegetarian, you need a minimum of 2 GJ per day per capita to safely grow the plants to support the people. If you are omnivorous, you need a minimum of 20 GJ per day per capita to safely grow the plants that feed the animals that support the people. In the former case, you need a constant 4 MW of electricity for 100 people. In the latter case, you need a constant 40 MW of electricity for 100 people.
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Old 04-09-2016, 04:20 PM   #22
(E)
 
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Location: New Zealand.
Default Re: [ATE] Farming example

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl View Post
The only problem with the farming town is that it would be impossible to wall in the farmland. If you are working on a TL 4 infrastructure, the highest level sustainable with such a small population, with TL 9 artifacts, you would need around one acre of cultivated land per person for maximum variety of diet (which is the sustainable level required for a non-Western diet). Careful management can increase carrying capacity to ten people per acre at TL4, but it requires massive inputs of manure, more than could be produced by a community of 100 people. You would probably also require an additional four acres per capita of coppiced woodlands to generate sufficient lumber and firewood, as well as mushrooms, for your people if they are facing an Ice Age environment.

The problem with a SALT facility is the power requirement. If you are pure vegetarian, you need a minimum of 2 GJ per day per capita to safely grow the plants to support the people. If you are omnivorous, you need a minimum of 20 GJ per day per capita to safely grow the plants that feed the animals that support the people. In the former case, you need a constant 4 MW of electricity for 100 people. In the latter case, you need a constant 40 MW of electricity for 100 people.

TL 4 is not part of the equation
, it is more what survives from the TL 8 or 9 starts. Regarding mainstreet there is a note somewhere about the availability of the NPK fertilizer bases. Main Street has TL 6 or 7 chemistry remember. I also assumed an almost continual cycling of the soil for the control of blights etc. Walls are an essential part of the setting, but may be open or slanted enough to let light in. I reduced the staple crop production by 40% in my calculations to reflect the cramped conditions. Remember one of the components was TL8+ high yielding potatoes.

Kings port had the assumption of freely available dead and dried standing timber harvested by machine. Even at 2 hectares per annum they will have only knocked over 80 hectares in the assumed 40 years/two short generations. I assumed a climate with similarities to the most northern and now uninhabited Scottish islands.

Regarding Salt
2 gigajoules per day equals 23.148kw*, and I was assuming a TL fission power plant was maybe 500-1000 mws. Out of interest can you source the giga joules requirement please, I am curious.

My assumption was the equivalent of 3000w of lighting per m2 (using 50% efficiency energy to light transfer and adding 30% improvement for using a reduced spectrum). That equals 100kw per person for the vegetable component, the animals where on an algae based diet. The improvement in those numbers for TL 9 is not factored in. That's as far as I went on that calculation as the back of the envelope level of detail resulted in 5000 people worth of food. Reduce the efficiency by a factor of 10 and you can still support 500 people.

These are back of the envelope calculations that are aiming for plausible (a subjective term I know). Hopefully leaning towards realistic.

*unless there is something else you are factoring in?

Edit
Working on the sub canopy farming. I'm assuming no IR means no fire or thermal ovens.
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Last edited by (E); 04-09-2016 at 04:51 PM.
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Old 04-09-2016, 05:49 PM   #23
AlexanderHowl
 
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Default Re: [ATE] Farming example

The average human being needs 2250 kilo calories per day, which is roughly 10 MJ per person per day. Plant crops have a 1% photosynthetic efficiency and natural light LED capable of the required intensity have a 50% efficiency, meaning that 2 GJ per person per day would be required for minimal substance on a vegetarian diet with no support crops. Meat animals and support crops (barley for beer, cotton for clothing, hemp for fiber, and tobacco for smoking) would reduce overall efficiency by 90%, which would mean that you need 20 GJ per person per day.

If you have an acre per person, you have more than sufficient energy production. If not, you would require an average supply of 240 kW per person and, more importantly, you need energy for life support (ventilation, sterilization, etc) so you can recycle biological material with minimal threat of disease, increasing power consumption to 400 kW per person. The final energy requirement would be 40 MW, requiring a 100 MW power plant with a 40% conversions efficiency.

If fission, your rods are done within two decades. If fusion, you would need around 14 kilograms of tritium per year, which is more than the current global. Even if you could find sufficient tritium, it has a half-life of 12.5 years, so a fusion power plant would likely run out of supplies within 25 years. Breeding tritium is a highly advanced technology and would be impossible in an economy of less than a million people. TL4 comes from the fact that it is the highest TL that can be sustained with a population below 10 million people.

Last edited by AlexanderHowl; 04-09-2016 at 05:57 PM.
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Old 04-09-2016, 06:51 PM   #24
Minuteman37
 
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Default Re: [ATE] Farming example

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Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl View Post
The average human being needs 2250 kilo calories per day, which is roughly 10 MJ per person per day. Plant crops have a 1% photosynthetic efficiency and natural light LED capable of the required intensity have a 50% efficiency, meaning that 2 GJ per person per day would be required for minimal substance on a vegetarian diet with no support crops. Meat animals and support crops (barley for beer, cotton for clothing, hemp for fiber, and tobacco for smoking) would reduce overall efficiency by 90%, which would mean that you need 20 GJ per person per day.
Wouldn't both the vegetarian and omnivorous require support crops?

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Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl View Post
If you have an acre per person, you have more than sufficient energy production. If not, you would require an average supply of 240 kW per person and, more importantly, you need energy for life support (ventilation, sterilization, etc) so you can recycle biological material with minimal threat of disease, increasing power consumption to 400 kW per person. The final energy requirement would be 40 MW, requiring a 100 MW power plant with a 40% conversions efficiency.

If fission, your rods are done within two decades. If fusion, you would need around 14 kilograms of tritium per year, which is more than the current global. Even if you could find sufficient tritium, it has a half-life of 12.5 years, so a fusion power plant would likely run out of supplies within 25 years. Breeding tritium is a highly advanced technology and would be impossible in an economy of less than a million people. TL4 comes from the fact that it is the highest TL that can be sustained with a population below 10 million people.
What about the geothermal bore E mention in the text?
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Old 04-09-2016, 07:03 PM   #25
AlexanderHowl
 
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Default Re: [ATE] Farming example

They would, the vegetarian example was just for bare nutrition. A geothermal bore is capable of supplying a maximum of 1 MW of energy (around 300 kW of electricity) unless you are exploiting a geothermal hotspot. In any case, a group of 100 people would not be able the maintain the equipment. It is simply impossible for a community that small to maintain anything above TL4. They may have the knowledge, but they lack the infrastructure.
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Old 04-09-2016, 09:35 PM   #26
(E)
 
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Default Re: [ATE] Farming example

The first calculation for the 2 gigajoules would have a 30% improvement factor from not using frequencies of light not used by plants. That reduces the demand to 1.5 gigajoules or approximately 17kw per person.

The other 90% number for animals and non food crops etc I set at 40% due to algae farming and plastics for fibre. The TL would maintain longer locally as it was assumed to be a research facility with auto factories. Edit. At 40% you get say 24kw per person.

It also not about maintaining the TL the assumption for ATE is fairly high technological endurance. So for setting specific reasons the TL decline is on the optimistic side.

I would say a TL9 geothermal generator made a bit more power, but as that's sci-fi terrain it is merely speculation, They are by there very nature quite easy to scale up.

The lifespan of the fuel for fission is an issue however, in my thought process I just ticked the box "advance breeder reactor" and made a note about refueling it.

Edit
The ventilation issues would be mitigated by design especially with the ability to use waste heat to generate movement, that waste heat may be useful for sterilization purposes as well. My thinking was the sterilization issues where going to be smaller(not absent) as a result of the bio-system approach. Cold plasma related technologies might also be used for cleaning/sterilizing. I am also speculating about what highly qualified people who are more advanced than me can do. . .
Photosynthesis is about 1-6% effective for energy conversion as well, with crops around 2-3%, again this is discounting any improvements in TL9 genetics. The 30% improvement for controlling the light spectrum could also be plausibly increased to 50% or higher, I just reduced the efficiency for my calculation as a matter of coarse.
Edit the second
If the power generation grates against your plausibility standards, change it for another, subterranean hydroelectric, beamed power from orbit or whatever suits. The beamed power would make a good defensive barrier option to. Power is the limiting factor in this operation and gurps ultratech shys away from specifics.
Edit the third
Sorry about the multiple edits but I am only just looking at this specific angle of analysis, fully tweaked artificial light might do better than 15% efficiency for crops 10% seems quite achievable for TL 9, Natural sugar cane apparently manages 8% efficiency on plain sunlight.
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Last edited by (E); 04-10-2016 at 12:32 AM. Reason: punctuation and the edit section
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Old 04-10-2016, 04:12 AM   #27
(E)
 
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Default Re: [ATE] Farming example

Quote:
Originally Posted by tshiggins View Post
I like what you've done, in this thread, rather a lot. Here's an interesting scenario, for you:

Assumptions
-TL 8 technology available at the time of the collapse
-Area is a temperate rainforest (two varieties -- most in the world are coastal, but it could also be one of the pockets in the Appalachians, or the Changai Mountains)
-Humanity is hunted by an enemy that has early TL9 assets.
--A rogue AI, perhaps.
--Possibly aliens who either arrived in an ark vessel, or got FTL early, or shifted over from another dimension.
-Alternatively, humanity is hunted by reasonably intelligent, winged, monsters or mutants.
-The enemies use two methods to target or hunt.
--Clusters of heat signatures significantly higher than ambient temperatures
--Interruptions (especially straight lines) in the physical geography

Thoughts

I'd think the situation would require a focus on foods that grow natively, planted in what I almost think of as "elvish agriculture." Rather than carve out areas in the forest to dedicate to foodstuffs, the existing biome is shaped to maximize useful plants while minimizing anything recognizable as "agriculture." Interruptions of the forest canopy are especially to be avoided.

At the same time, human beings need to work together for defense against actively hostile enemies, but must avoid clustering in large settlements.

So, what sorts of crops would work best (I'm betting grains aren't available, except for wild rice, possibly), what sorts of livestock could be supported (pigs would probably work best, and perhaps small cattle, but horses are right out), and what would be the population density?
Whaler's Bay

Additional assumptions
- Fire is to be avoided
- Some kind of cooperation happens between communities, either trade or organized resistance.
- Family sized groups of people, up to ten people.
- Highest density fruit tree plantings are about 5% of a "farmed" area
- Due to home garden plantings there are a range of fruit trees and nuts available.
- Planting under glass is to be avoided due to reflected light

Notes
- Whaler's Bay is a large coastal valley containing three or four small micro-climates.
- Netting and other barriers to protect plants would be valuable salvage.
- If it is possible to conceal the electrical activity then Hydroelectric power could be used for numerous purposes. Refrigerating and Microwaving food would be very useful.
- Even without electricity water power would be very useful.
- Wheel barrows and hand carts
- Alcohol and vinegar would be extremely useful for food preservation, vacuum and cold stills might be used.
- Airtight containers extremely valuable.
- Nomadic is a switch for this example. It could also be modified to work from a central point.
- Assuming fruit and nut trees are producing about 5% of modern yield due to pests, shade, nutrition and diffuse planting.
- 120 kgs of produce per hectare, farming skill rolls are all about timing in this environment.
- 5 hectares per person for fresh food for 9 months of the year.
- Large amounts of food wastage
- For 3 months of the year the diet would be stored food would be supplemented by hunting.
- Good hunting with high animal populations.
- Odd bits of machinery are stored all over each family groups territory, stills, presses etc.
- 50 hectares (productive) to support a family group, assuming 50% percent productive for whalers bay means an area 1km square.
- If 5% planting is too thick for fruit trees, 1% would have each family group over 500 hectares or a square 2.25 km a side.

Resources
- Olives and avocados pre-End.
- Garden supply store and several gardens had fruit and nut trees.

Description
Traveling during the heat of the day to lessen your IR signature you crest the top of the ridge overlooking Whaler's bay. Even this late in the season you can still see fruit here and there in the branches. The narrow track has been marked by the passing of people and pigs.

Orchards
Biological controls used to reduce pests, some species of wasps may be encouraged. Pheromone and scent traps would also be used to reduce pests.
- Olives and avocados would be important sources of fats and oils.
- Fruit, a range of varieties to ensure a long season. Early and late fruiting varieties for everything planted.
- Apples under the right conditions can be stored for a long time so they would be popular.
- Tree nuts and trees that produce nut like bodies would be valued for their shelf life. Macadamias, pine nuts, walnuts, hazelnut would all tolerate the climate.
- Lemons, extremely useful for chemically cooking fish and meat.
- Any local and native plants that are useful will be encouraged with the exception of species that exclude competition, beech and some pine varieties for example.
- Grafting techniques would be well utilized.

Crops
Due to low density planting the population would be fairly mobile. For plant care weekly visits would be desired. Moving over several season trails/circuits, ideally they would be arriving at an area in time to tend one crop and harvest another.
- Basket grown vegetables, with planting near trees the soil will be hard to cultivate, depleted to some extent by tree roots and in deep shade. Some species may do better if they are grown in hanging baskets. This also puts them out of reach of some animals. (Certain "Herbal" crops have been planted on platforms in trees for concealment near where I live).
- Stream and Wetland planting. Small dams would provide good environments for water loving plants, watercress, wild rice. Controlled flooding would also suit Japanese Millet as careful timing would reduce any weed competition.
- Cabbages would be suitable as well as many other leafy vegetables. Kimchi and similar storage/cooking techniques would be present.
- Turnips and potatoes are extremely useful, if they can be cooked. If not some kumara/sweet potatoes can be eaten raw. All these species do well in shade but still will need some direct light.
- Artichokes would be handy for late season nutrition
- Some hemp production for fiber.

Livestock
Pigs and possibly smaller cattle might be kept in a semi-feral manner. Any natural area that could contain them would be improved on. Stone walls, ha ha's, water sources and semi-permanent traps (capture and kill) would be the extent of the infrastructure. Beneficial plantings would follow to provide food for the animals for as much of the year as possible.
- Japanese millet on margins would make some areas more attractive to wild fowl.
- Fish traps.
- Each family group would have companion animals, a tame pig or two as a food storage device, goats would add dairy products. They would be taken from the semi-feral populations and domesticated while young. Dogs may have the added benefit of being able to herd animals beyond the cover of the canopy, if so they would be useful.
- Some means of gathering salt would be needed if refrigeration does not exist. Capture ponds with air drying wicks for salt to crystallize on.

Produces
- Stored food, Apples, salted meat, nuts, Kimchi, pickled eggs, preserves, potted meat (maybe), dried fruit (poor quality), a few potato varieties.
- Oils, olive and avocado. large quantities in a good year.
- Hempen fiber
- Alcohol

Requires
- Netting
- Containers
- Possibly salt
- Tools

Skills present in the community

- Hiking
- Farming (orchards)
- Animal handling
- Cooking
- Area knowledge
- Traps
- Weaving/rope making
- Camouflage
- Missile weapon
- Climbing

This example merits a reexamination with a few of the assumptions changed, the results may be quite different.
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Last edited by (E); 04-22-2016 at 02:11 AM. Reason: Cleaning up
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Old 04-10-2016, 10:12 AM   #28
tshiggins
 
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Default Re: [ATE] Farming example

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Originally Posted by (E) View Post
[B]

Edit
Working on the sub canopy farming. I'm assuming no IR means no fire or thermal ovens.
Oh, I think the occasional hot spot is fine. The setting is post-apocalyptic, and that means even if we do go with alien aerial surveillance or HKs sent by rogue AIs, they won't have much in the way of infrastructure, either, except in the immediate vicinity of their bases.

So, while campfires or grills pose some risk, it's pretty limited. They'd need pretty spectacular satellite coverage for small fires to pose real and immediate risks, every single time. Pretty spectacular satellite coverage implies a sophisticated aerospace infrastructure, and post-apocalyptic settings don't have that.

Basically, the larger and hotter the heat-source, the more interest it would draw, especially if it it lit up sensors for a long time. Under those conditions, I don't think a cook-fire would draw too much attention, although a pottery kiln might. If the area is as rugged as Appalachia (which isn't terrible), even that might be okay, a lot of the time.

The main thing, unlike the other setting, is that the people couldn't form a dun, or any other sort of fortified central village -- which is the ideal situation for most post-apocalyptic settlements. My basic assumption, here, is that a defensible central village, surrounded by open fields, would get attacked.

That means a model of human settlement that has worked, well, for nearly every culture throughout human history cannot work, here.
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Old 04-10-2016, 10:45 AM   #29
chandley
 
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Default Re: [ATE] Farming example

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Originally Posted by (E) View Post
Whaler's Bay

This example may merit a reexamination with a few of the assumptions changed, the results may be quite different.
Honey bees would be really good for this setup. You can spread them out in "log" hives (like African beekeepers use), they are low maintenance, and they will help the various fruit trees quite a bit. And honey can be used to preserve fruits and meat.
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Old 04-10-2016, 03:43 PM   #30
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Default Re: [ATE] Farming example

Thanks (E) these are awesome, a great starting point for me to adjust for my own games.

IŽd be interested in your ideas for a desert/dry setting, very Mad Max style.
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