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Old 07-08-2019, 12:32 AM   #11
Johnny1A.2
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Default Re: Tsunami-1

Tsunami-1 continued...

The damage caused by the Great Wave (as it came to be called) was both direct (physical), indirect (economic and political), and intangible (social, psychological, and emotional). All were significant.

The worst of it, of course, was in the Pacific Basin. Much of Polynesia and Melanesia were simply gone, as far as habitation went. The east coast of Japan was devastated, but the Japanese Archipelago provided partial protection to coast China. The Dutch East Indies, as noted, were horribly damaged, with huge death tolls, and the waves rolled on into the Indian Ocean, and even wrapped around and did some modest damage in the Atlantic, though far, far less so.

It's true that for a ship, or even a small boat, on the open sea, tsunamis are usually little threat. Many ships, including naval warships, came through the Event untouched. However, ships require support. Docks for repair, coaling and oiling stations, shore facilities for rest and recovery, sources of food and spare parts. These coastal facilities were heavily damaged throughout much of the world.

The USA took it especially badly because it so happened that much of the U.S. Pacific Fleet had been forward-stationed at Pearl Harbor, in an effort to intimidate the Japanese and prepare for a possible Japanese attack. Most of that fleet was within the harbor when the Wave came in, and most of the ships were utterly destroyed. In fact, because the aircraft carriers were among the ships destroyed, the damage on Tsunami-1 was actually greater than from the Pearl Harbor attack that would have happened absent the Wave.

Los Angeles had a population of about 1.5 million in 1940, and its peculiar topography, intermixing hills and valleys and lowlands within a mountain bowl, meant that a large percentage of the city was exposed. San Francisco was partly protected by the local geography, but the Wave passed through the Golden Gate and devastated much of the lower-lying parts of the city and the surrounding towns.

On Tsunami-1, instead of the 'day of infamy' speech, Franklin Roosevelt it remembered for his 'we shall endure, and rise again' speech referring to the challenge of dealing with a devastated west coast. Still, it would be months before the effort of simply rescuing survivors and cleaning up the mess would end, reconstruction would not begin in earnest for over a year.

In Japan, after the collapse of Tojo and his cabinet, there followed a period of social confusion and disorder, which culminated in fighting in the streets in spring of 1941. Emperor Hirohito was killed, along with most of the Imperial Family, by a bomb in May of 1941, which sent a shock through the population and paradoxically began a return to stability.

The heir to the throne turned out to be an obscure cousin of the main family, how he came to the throne over other relatives was not perfectly clear in the confusion. The men backing him meant for him to be another more-or-less figurehead, an obscure 24 year old with little experience in politics or public affairs.

Like Octavian, though, he proved to be more than met the eye. Once on theh throne, he outmaneuvered the politicians who had chosen him, and the 'state Shinto' that had been promoted by the previous military government provided him with the tool he needed to rally the public behind him. By 1944, he was firmly entrenched and actually ruling, in concert with a new cabinet chosen mostly by himself. His name was Akitoshi.

In Europe, as noted above, Britain was fighting alone and forced to reach a cease-fire with Germany in late October of 1942. It was not a peace, not even a formal truce. Just a cease-fire. Both nations remained tense and armed, both fully expected the cease-fire to break down quickly. It was simply a breathing space for Britain, while for Germany it was a chance to turn their full attention eastward.

Operation Barbarosa had begun at the same time on Tsunami-1 as on Homeline, and played out much the same way, except that Germany was able to focus somewhat more resources to the east because Britain was unsupported by America, and likewise Russia did not have lend-lease or other American support either in this time line. The result was that Germany was doing a little better in Russia in the fall of 1942 than on Homeline, but still having serious problems on the eastern front.

The cease-fire with Britain enabled the Germans to press harder, and the cease-fire also produced a split in the German high command about policy. One faction saw the cease-fire as a temporary thing, and urged preparing on the west for further battles with the UK, the other faction saw the cease-fire as a chance to get Barbarosa back on track. Hitler vacillated.

On Tsunami-1 as on Homeline, Hitler was a strange combination of madness and sagacity, deranged megalomania and a peculiar strategic sense. In this case, his saner side won out, and German policy ended up being a combination of pressing the Russians harder while accepting a more modest goal than initially sought.

This combination proved effective. Russia, unsupported by American help, was somewhat weaker, Germany, in cease-fire with Britain, a little stronger, and what emerged was a stalemate along a wide line deep in Russia territory.

A turning point came in July of 1943, when a Germany thrust toward Moscow succeeded beyond even their own hopes, striking an area where the Red Army was thinly deployed, and they actually broke into Moscow and captured the Russian capitol entirely by the end of September.

With most of the western USSR, including the rich lands of Ukraine, under German control and the Soviet capitol city finally captured, once again Hitler's saner side prevailed, and the Germans dug in to hold what had been captured.

The Soviet government assembled in a city well behind the new provisional capitol well behind the eastern front, but the USSR had lost much of its industrial capacity, much of its best agricultural land, its capitol, and had taken huge military losses in 1943.

An attempted coup against Stalin by desperate apparatchiks and Party personnel in November of 1943 failed, but Stalin's reprisals and his actions to reassert his control over Party and State led to a massive new purge in the midst of ongoing war, and cost the lives of many of the most officials and officers of the Soviet government.

In the midst of the Soviet troubles, some of the majority Islamic Soviets and non-ethnic-Russian areas of the USSR began to see opportunities.

To be continued...
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:53 AM   #12
Johnny1A.2
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Default Re: Tsunami-1

Tsunami-1 continued...

The Anglo-German cease fire lasted longer than either side expected. Germany had no motive to break it, being more than occupied with the eastern front, and Britain needed all the breathing space they could get to recover their strength. In the end, it last over two years. The British did not waste it.

The British worked miracles with the industrial capacity they had in that time. They repaired the fleet, and began construction of a submarine fleet to operate against the devastatingly effective German subs. Britain still controlled most Germany's access to the world ocean, other than for submarines, and they were building new planes at a great rate, too.

In early 1944, with Russia occupied by Stalin's internal purges and rising revolts in several of the less loyal regions, Germany was able to turn their attention back toward the west. Hitler's impulses remained on a leash, for the moment, he knew that restarting the fighting on the west was risky, but he also knew that the British were getting stronger with each month of rest.

There was also a substantial pool of thought in German military circles that felt that even if the USA was marginalized for the moment, confrontation was likely down the road, and they saw neutralizing Britain as a vital step in preparing for that future day. Still, Britain was now fortified and a cross-Channel invasion was still a daunting prospect.

The cease-fire broke in February of 1945, when something happened in the ocean off the west coast of Ireland. Berlin maintained that a British submarine had fired on a German submarine. London maintained the opposite.

(In fact, the two submarines had been shadowing each other, and actually collided. It was an accident, but both were lost with all hands, and each state blamed the other.)

Fighting resumed, mostly air and naval, and went on through most of 1945 without definite result. Neither side was strong enough to force the other off the field. Germany had greater industrial capacity and more resources, but much of it was tied down in their restive and by-no-means pacified eastern empire. Britain was well-fortified against invasion, maintained control of the surface seas and had produced a modest but growing force of capable submarines, which were beginning to bite into the German U-boats. Britain simply did not have the necessary manpower to plausibly invade Germany, and the same daunting cross-Channel challenges applied. Germany had the personnel and resources to invade Britain, but not sufficient to guarantee success and not without risking a catastrophic loss of control of their Russian empire.

A war of attrition was looming, one in which Germany looked to be the eventual winner, but only after agonizing years and tremendous cost. There was substantial public sentiment for seeking another cease-fire on both sides, but the circumstances were not favorable.

Still, the very long-term prospects for Britain looked bleak, and both sides knew it. The equation changed on April 5th, 1946, when Britain, messaging the Germans through neutral Spain, invited the Germans to send a ship to observe a weapons test in the open Atlantic, under flag of truce.

Thus is was that on May 1, 1946, German observers aboard a German battleship saw a mushroom cloud rise up from the 18 kiloton detonation of Britain's (and Tsunami-1's) first atomic bomb.

To be continued...
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Old 07-09-2019, 02:36 AM   #13
Michele
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
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Default Re: Tsunami-1

Interesting and complex. I'll keep reading.

WWII-era submarines, however, are not submarine hunters. The British would increase their destroyer fleet, opting for longer-ranged classes. That's not a big problem for the resumption of the hostilities: a British destroyer is involved with a German submarine, and each side accuses the other of having fired first. With torpedoes, it's entirely possible that the destroyer sinks the submarine, and then the submarine's torpedoes sink the destroyer.

Also, British "control of the access" to the oceans by Germany is an unclear point. If there's a truce, then the British don't stop German tankers bringing South-American oil to European ports. If OTOH the British do blockade the German trade, that's a hostile action, incompatible with a truce. Maybe you meant that Britain could still, on resumption of the hostilities, control the German access to the oceans?

Also, the British could conceive the bomb and produce it in Canada. However, it would be nice to know that the USA are, openly or covertly, bankrolling the British. Otherwise, with the naval program, the RAF program, the fortification campaign, and the A-bomb, they'll be stretched rather thin, economically.
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Old 07-09-2019, 10:03 AM   #14
Varyon
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
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Originally Posted by Michele View Post
With torpedoes, it's entirely possible that the destroyer sinks the submarine, and then the submarine's torpedoes sink the destroyer.
I think Johnny specifically wants the resumption of hostilities to be due to an accident, which is difficult to justify with torpedoes. Perhaps a mechanical malfunction on one vessel makes them think the other vessel has fired upon them, and they opt to retaliate. The other vessel, upon being struck (or detecting the torpedo launch, if that's possible - not sure what WWII tech was capable of here), opts to retaliate, and both end up sunk. Alternatively, I just read the most recent Free Wrench book (Cipher Hill), wherein Captain Mack recounts the time he was involved in an accidental resumption of hostilities - his captain ordered a warning shot, he was feeling a little hostile and ordered his men to "make it a close one," the order got distorted down the chain, and they blasted off the figurehead of one of the enemy ships. As that's considered an outright attack rather than a warning, the enemy returned fire, and that was the end of the cease-fire. Something similar here - destroyer captain orders a "we see you there" warning shot, things get distorted and the submarine is actually struck, it returns fire and both sink.
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Old 07-09-2019, 10:42 AM   #15
Fred Brackin
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Michele View Post
, it's entirely possible that the destroyer sinks the submarine, and then the submarine's torpedoes sink the destroyer.
Note that the destroyer would need to be using Hedgehog whihc allows them to attack subs in front of them. The more conventional would have the destroyer dropping depth charges on subs behind and below them by sailing directly above the sub's position.

A sub in that postion would not be at periscope depth where it could launch torpedoes.

This could be diffeerent if both sides were using modern acoustic homing torpedoes though even then the side that gets blown up rist probably ahs their torps go "dumb". However, I thought we were interrupting and then trying to restart WWII.

I just thought that you might be able to get your result even during a break in WWII if the sub had been planting mines.
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Old 07-09-2019, 11:00 AM   #16
YankeeGamer
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Default Re: Tsunami-1

I could see subs stalking each other, or perhaps one happens to see the other and sends off a contact report. Then the accident happens--assumptions are made, and war is on again.

Interesting timeline here. Nuclear Weapons had to show up--a lot of timelines just ignore them, or go nuke crazy.
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Old 07-10-2019, 02:25 AM   #17
Michele
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
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Default Re: Tsunami-1

First thing, I'd like to mention that of course homing acoustic torpedoes were introduced during WWII, and that's exactly the weapon I was thinking about when I said that a submarine might sink a destroyer after having been sunk by the same destroyer.
In particular, the G7es/T11 "Zaunkönig II" was very sensitive, fast enough to reach an evading destroyer, and able to be launched not at periscope depth but at under 50 meters of depth.

That said, WWII submarines did occasionally engage each other, and sink submarines too.
So an accident between two submarines may happen. It's not impossible.
But submarines were not suitable as submarine hunters. It's a matter of recon range against the least noisy engines. If they stumble into each other they can stalk each other, and they can launch torps at each other; but finding each other in the vast oceans is the issue.
So, the British deciding to increase their submarine fleet in order to counter submarines is not plausible with WWII-era tech. They would increase their destroyer flotillas and even more their ASW aircraft squadrons, and build lots of small ASW aircraft carriers. As per our timeline.
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Old 07-11-2019, 05:26 PM   #18
Prince Charon
 
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Default Re: Tsunami-1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michele View Post
First thing, I'd like to mention that of course homing acoustic torpedoes were introduced during WWII, and that's exactly the weapon I was thinking about when I said that a submarine might sink a destroyer after having been sunk by the same destroyer.
In particular, the G7es/T11 "Zaunkönig II" was very sensitive, fast enough to reach an evading destroyer, and able to be launched not at periscope depth but at under 50 meters of depth.

That said, WWII submarines did occasionally engage each other, and sink submarines too.
So an accident between two submarines may happen. It's not impossible.
But submarines were not suitable as submarine hunters. It's a matter of recon range against the least noisy engines. If they stumble into each other they can stalk each other, and they can launch torps at each other; but finding each other in the vast oceans is the issue.
So, the British deciding to increase their submarine fleet in order to counter submarines is not plausible with WWII-era tech. They would increase their destroyer flotillas and even more their ASW aircraft squadrons, and build lots of small ASW aircraft carriers. As per our timeline.
Agreed. I mean, they'd still be building more submarines, especially during a ceasefire, but they'd be doing it for the same reasons that they did it in our timeline.
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Old 07-11-2019, 07:41 PM   #19
dcarson
 
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Subs would be useful to lurk at the chokepoints from the Baltic and such. Subs tend to run on the surface at night, it's faster and they need to recharge the batteries. So a sub in wait slightly submerged can spot and ambush them while a destroyer shows up on radar and would be avoided.
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Old 07-12-2019, 04:39 AM   #20
Tomsdad
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Brighton
Default Re: Tsunami-1

Like it so far!

Couple of questions

How's it going with China / Chinese civil war?

and

India, with Japan taken out / looking inward and so no "going south", but the chaos and disruption in SEA India could end up being the power player here (as pert of the British empire and to extent on it's own).

This last could be an interesting one because to pick up on an earlier point technically manpower is not Britain's problem because it was a very large empire to call on if it really needs to.

But doing that comes with it's own problem when it come to not just the material difficulties of doing so but also the political realities of calling on such manpower form an empire that in many areas has it's own ideas about nationalism and being "subject to the British crown".
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