Reality Check: Sniper Shots and Speed/Range Table

[gilbertocarlos]

I was reading this page on wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sniper#Range
and says that the greatest range that a sniper shot hit a target was 2430m(2657y), "googled" it, and still no further range that a sniper shot hit someone.

Then I calculated how difficult would be to pass this record:
he was shooting from 2657y(goes to 3000y, -19) we gonna kick his ass shotting from 6500y(goes to 7000y, or -21)
the weapon we gonna use is the Barrett M82A1, .50 Browning who is the only man-portable weapon who can achieve this range, modified with a 32x scope.
+6 Acc from the Gun
+2 From other 2 seconds aiming
+5 from the 32x scope
+1 Total Attack
+1 Braced
+1 Match Grade Ammunition
+1 to +5 from precision aiming
Total= +6+2+5+1+1+1=+16+precision aiming
The total of Bonus/Penalties is -5+Precision Aiming, and to a experienced Sniper, could become just a Basic Skill Roll.

Now we gonna pick a guy who is expert(skill 15) good enough to be better to Joe Average, but far away from a master sniper.
in 1 minute he's going to do 10 shots in the circumstances above, in the sequence below:
five seconds=aiming one second=total attack(determined)
basic skill 15, effective skill 15-5 or 10.
he break the record 5 times in one minute...

Am i missing something? Is it so easy to shot so far away? Is it so easy to break sniper records?

[DouglasCole]

Originally Posted by gilbertocarlos

I was reading this page on wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sniper#Range
and says that the greatest range that a sniper shot hit a target was 2430m(2657y), "googled" it, and still no further range that a sniper shot hit someone.

Then I calculated how difficult would be to pass this record:
he was shooting from 2657y(goes to 3000y, -19) we gonna kick his ass shotting from 6500y(goes to 7000y, or -21)
the weapon we gonna use is the Barrett M82A1, .50 Browning who is the only man-portable weapon who can achieve this range, modified with a 32x scope.
+6 Acc from the Gun
+2 From other 2 seconds aiming
+5 from the 32x scope
+1 Total Attack
+1 Braced
+1 Match Grade Ammunition
+1 to +5 from precision aiming
Total= +6+2+5+1+1+1=+16+precision aiming
The total of Bonus/Penalties is -5+Precision Aiming, and to a experienced Sniper, could become just a Basic Skill Roll.

Now we gonna pick a guy who is expert(skill 15) good enough to be better to Joe Average, but far away from a master sniper.
in 1 minute he's going to do 10 shots in the circumstances above, in the sequence below:
five seconds=aiming one second=total attack(determined)
basic skill 15, effective skill 15-5 or 10.
he break the record 5 times in one minute...

Am i missing something? Is it so easy to shot so far away? Is it so easy to break sniper records?

I'll have to reread, but did you double-count the +2 for "additional 2 seconds aiming" and +1 to +5 from precision aim? I thought precision aim was an extension of the "additional aim" part, not cumulative. So if you account for +2 of the initial aim, you may only claim +3 more from Precision aiming?

[Johnny Angel]

One of the problems is whether or not you can see someone that far away well enough to take the shot. Even with a scope, it's going to be tough to get a clear shot from that far away.

Another difficulty in sniping at long distances is wind. Even a small amount of wind can throw off a shot. The longer the distance is, the more that even a tiny influence can push the shot away from the target. I'm also going to say that -personally- I feel it would be difficult to judge what sort of wind effects are going on at that distance.

Sniping also involves quite a bit of mathmatical formula; for such a long shot, I think I might require a somewhat difficult math roll to avoid a negative Task Difficulty Modifier.

Even if the math roll is made, there will still probably be some amount of TDM. The number you arrived at was 10, which is doable, but not exactly reliable. Even with a small TDM of just -1 or -2, your target number drops to 8 or 9. So under what are essentially completely perfect conditions and with a somewhat generous GM, you still have less than a 40% chance of success.

[Kelly Pedersen]

Originally Posted by DouglasCole

I'll have to reread, but did you double-count the +2 for "additional 2 seconds aiming" and +1 to +5 from precision aim? I thought precision aim was an extension of the "additional aim" part, not cumulative.

Nope, High Tech specifies that you can get an extra +5, above and beyond the +2 for standard aiming.

In any case, though, the setup is still somewhat unrealistic. While we're not giving the sniper a bonus for not being under stress, we're apparently assuming a more or less perfect day - no wind beyond a mild breeze, no dust or haze in the air, etc. Also, remember that the record is for a confirmed sniper kill. At 2657 yards, the Barret is comfortably beyond its half-damage range, which means its average damage is now only 21 points. Against an average, unarmored target, that's still only one death check, which the target will make half the time. Against any target with more than DR 2, it's not even one check. If the sniper is aiming for vitals, that bumps the average up - the round only has to do 7 penetrating damage to provoke a death check, but that takes the odds down to only 16.2% per shot, since vitals is -3.

[gilbertocarlos]

Originally Posted by Johnny Angel

One of the problems is whether or not you can see someone that far away well enough to take the shot. Even with a scope, it's going to be tough to get a clear shot from that far away.

Another difficulty in sniping at long distances is wind. Even a small amount of wind can throw off a shot. The longer the distance is, the more that even a tiny influence can push the shot away from the target. I'm also going to say that -personally- I feel it would be difficult to judge what sort of wind effects are going on at that distance.

Sniping also involves quite a bit of mathmatical formula; for such a long shot, I think I might require a somewhat difficult math roll to avoid a negative Task Difficulty Modifier.

Even if the math roll is made, there will still probably be some amount of TDM. The number you arrived at was 10, which is doable, but not exactly reliable. Even with a small TDM of just -1 or -2, your target number drops to 8 or 9. So under what are essentially completely perfect conditions and with a somewhat generous GM, you still have less than a 40% chance of success.

about wind, and i don't put precision aiming into account, if a sniper don't just keep shooting from 6 to 6 seconds, but instead use precision aiming, the chance of success if he take, let's say 4 points of skill in precision aiming, goes to 90%

Originally Posted by Kelly Pedersen

Nope, High Tech specifies that you can get an extra +5, above and beyond the +2 for standard aiming.

In any case, though, the setup is still somewhat unrealistic. While we're not giving the sniper a bonus for not being under stress, we're apparently assuming a more or less perfect day - no wind beyond a mild breeze, no dust or haze in the air, etc. Also, remember that the record is for a confirmed sniper kill. At 2657 yards, the Barret is comfortably beyond its half-damage range, which means its average damage is now only 21 points. Against an average, unarmored target, that's still only one death check, which the target will make half the time. Against any target with more than DR 2, it's not even one check. If the sniper is aiming for vitals, that bumps the average up - the round only has to do 7 penetrating damage to provoke a death check, but that takes the odds down to only 16.2% per shot, since vitals is -3.

like i said above, the penalty from wind is in the speed/size penalty(the farther away, more wind matters), that is why with a x32 sight you don't get range/32 for the penalty of speed/size, and remember of the wounding rules from high tech, 6dx2 pi+ becomes 6d pi+, who becomes average of 31 damage, because of bleeding, he just takes HP damage, but need to make HT rolls to stay awake, and HT-6 rolls to stop bleeding, and continuous death checks. if he aims at one specific part of the body, he reduces the skill, but up to 5 points of penalty, he can nulify with precision aiming

[Verjigorm]

Wind is not counted in the "speed/range/size" tables. That's part of why you give out TDMs.

[weby]

You sem to be missing:

B372: "The sum of Acc and all extra aimed-fire bonuses can never exceed twice the base Acc of the attack."

[PK]

Originally Posted by gilbertocarlos

Am i missing something? Is it so easy to shot so far away? Is it so easy to break sniper records?

As mentioned, this was a confirmed kill, so realistically the shot should include -3 to the vitals, where shot = kill almost for sure (considering that it's only doing half-damage). So you're looking at a base -6 skill penalty, offset by whatever Precision Aiming you can pull off.

And yeah, that's about right for GURPS. The system has always been biased in favor of "heroic realism" -- that is, a universe that's closer to realism than true cinematicism, but is definitely in the middle. So if you build a sniper with high levels of skill and you go to the trouble of buying up Precision Aim technique (because with that -6 penalty, you pretty much have to!), you should be able to make some ridiculous shots. Because players who build highly skilled characters expect to be able to do crazy stuff like that. :)

[gilbertocarlos]

Originally Posted by Verjigorm

Wind is not counted in the "speed/range/size" tables. That's part of why you give out TDMs.

Well, IMO is, because unless in the precision shooting technique says that the GM need to put a penalty, there is nowhere how much the penalty is and such

Originally Posted by weby

You sem to be missing:

B372: "The sum of Acc and all extra aimed-fire bonuses can never exceed twice the base Acc of the attack."

AoA and Precision aiming don't go toward the maximum, as in the example of HT84. I will remake the calc, now goes to skill 7, but even so, with precision aiming can go up to skill 12, yet very high to more than double of the World Record...

[Johnny Angel]

Originally Posted by Rev. Pee Kitty

As mentioned, this was a confirmed kill, so realistically the shot should include -3 to the vitals, where shot = kill almost for sure (considering that it's only doing half-damage). So you're looking at a base -6 skill penalty, offset by whatever Precision Aiming you can pull off.

And yeah, that's about right for GURPS. The system has always been biased in favor of "heroic realism" -- that is, a universe that's closer to realism than true cinematicism, but is definitely in the middle. So if you build a sniper with high levels of skill and you go to the trouble of buying up Precision Aim technique (because with that -6 penalty, you pretty much have to!), you should be able to make some ridiculous shots. Because players who build highly skilled characters expect to be able to do crazy stuff like that. :)

There is a lot of truth to this. This combined with what I feel are essentially perfectly set up circumstances (no wind, expensive ammo, a wide open field, the perfect weapon for the job, and a character who has spent a good deal of time training to do such a thing, and etc) makes it possible to make such a shot, but even under such conditions and considerations, it's still a difficult shot.

Also, as I alluded to in a previous post; contrary to what may be believed, in real life, being a good sniper involves more than just shooting. If we're trying to compare this to reality and be more realistic, hopefully you're well versed in range formulas and mil conversions or at least have a spotter who is.