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Old 10-18-2017, 05:50 PM   #11
Kalzazz
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Default Re: [RPM] Quick and Dirty Quirks Quirk

I admit I really don't follow that, as it is always around 3 times easier to throw a 17 and get a quirk, than an 18 and get a critical failure, when skill is greater than 16
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Old 10-18-2017, 11:27 PM   #12
PK
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Default Re: [RPM] Quick and Dirty Quirks Quirk

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalzazz View Post
I admit I really don't follow that, as it is always around 3 times easier to throw a 17 and get a quirk, than an 18 and get a critical failure, when skill is greater than 16
I didn't say that it was easier to get a critical failure than to get a failure. I said that, as your effective skill level rises, your odds of failing a roll and getting a quirk drop off significantly, while your odds of rolling a critical failure often remain constant.

Once your effective skill drops to 15, your odds of a critical failure are constant, which means that any two casters whose effective skill is -- or quickly drops to -- 15 or less have near-identical odds of their spell blowing up. However, the caster whose skill starts at 14 and quickly drops to 13, 12, and 11 is far more likely to roll a simple failure than the caster whose skill starts at 16 and quickly drops to 15, 14, and 13. That's just how the bell curve works.

There are certain cherry-picked combos for which the above isn't true (generally involving both casters starting off at skill 17 vs 19 or something similar), but for the most part, I assure you that it's accurate.
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Old 10-19-2017, 12:19 AM   #13
Kalzazz
 
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Default Re: [RPM] Quick and Dirty Quirks Quirk

I am apparently doing a very horrible job of trying to explain what strikes me as weird

Skill 20 guy has safe threshold 65, he wants a 65 energy spell (well, 65 on top of his pool etc). So safe threshold x1, modifier of zero. He critically fails if he rolls greater than 15. He gets a quirk if he rolls greater than 16.

If he tries to cast the spell not quick and dirty, he rolls around 7 energy gathering rolls . . . . any 17s that come up are a quirk, any 18s that come up are a critical failure.

Hmmm, though . . .if he wants to press on to 130 energy, thats 2x safe threshhold, so critical fail if greater than 14, quirk if greater than 16 still. If he tries to cast it not quick and dirty, he can gather give or take 105 where he needs a 16 to succeed, 17 to quirk, and 18 to crit fail . . . but then he still has 25 to go and he is looking at 16 or less. So give or take 9 more rolls where he is going to critically fail a lot, hmmmm, and maybe fail less than he critically fails? Still doesn't seem though he should be looking at 14 or less to not critically fail, and 16 or less to not quirk. And if he tries to push all the way to 195 energy, he is looking at 13 or less to not critically fail, but still 16 or less to not quirk (at this point if he tried to do it roll by roll though Id expect the chances of critical failure or quirks to be beyond through the roof, but, the non combat no time pressure is helping if he does it quick and dirty)

And Effective Skill 20 is around what I expect to see a starting character consider putting together when working on spells they intend to cast as charms ahead of time (5-6 magery, a lower end grimoire, maybe a +1 charm lab etc)
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