Someone discovers Draka

[maximara]

Originally Posted by adm

I would argue extremely unlikely. In 1941 the U.S. had a very sizable military commitment in the Philippines, for the size of U.S. armed forces. Furthermore a lot of the U.S.'s interwar war planning was for a major showdown with Japan in the Philippines, at least until the rise of Hitler. Separating the Japanese from the Berlin:Rome Axis could make a difference, without Hitler's deceleration of war on the U.S. the U.S.'s commitment to Europe would have been muted.

A more intriguing outcome from a less daring attack on the Philippines might be that in 1941 the best trained and most modern Navy of any size in the world was Japans. Given Japan's superior readiness, and equipment in 1941 into 1942, there is a very real chance that the U.S. could have badly loss their battle with the IJN. By losing these units and men at sea, instead of in Pearl Harbor, they would have been almost total losses. All but the Arizona, Oklahoma, and the Nevada were repaired and put back to sea, and most of the crews were available for new construction coming out of New Deal work programs, as soon as the units were launched.

Japan will still lose, but may make it into 1946, or even 1947, if the Manhattan Project get less funding due to less early concentration on Nazi Germany.

If anything a focus on Germany would result in more funding of the Manhattan Project not less. Remember the whole reason the United States put so much in the Manhattan Project was fear that Germany would get the atom bomb first. It wouldn't be until Germany surrendered and the records sifted (1946 at the earliest) that it was realized they were about 3 years behind the Manhattan Project.

The B29 had a range of 5,592 miles. This is well within the 3000 miles needed to reach Japan from continental America proposed in Victory Through Air Power Sure the plans would have to land in China after the bombing runs but it was doable.

[AlexanderHowl]

I am not entirely sure that the Japanese would have lost had Japan not been so insane about occupying China. The point of divergence would have been the 30s though, as Japan would have stopped with the invasion of Manchuria, but the result would have been Japan with twice as much investment in their navy. Since they would have been unable, due to treaties, to build more battleships and cruisers, they would have likely focused on aircraft carriers and submarines. An Imperial Japanese Navy with an extra 25 carriers (with air complements) and an extra 200 submarines (with support ships) would have been quite difficult for the US to deal with. With the mineral and industrial production of Manchuria devoted to shipbuilding, the Japanese could have very well fought the US to a standstill and may have been able to conquer Australia before the US stopped their expansion. It would have been a quite different war in the Pacific.

In addition, FDR would have likely been more concerned about the Germans. With the UK forced into peace and European Russia under Nazi control, the entirety of continental Europe would have been under Nazi control. By 1945, Hitler would have likely turned his attention to the USA, which would have likely been forced to sue for peace with the Japanese in order to fight the Germans. With only a single front, the Germans would have likely been quite a challenge, especially since the UK would have already been forced into peace.

[johndallman]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

The point of divergence would have been the 30s though, as Japan would have stopped with the invasion of Manchuria, but the result would have been Japan with twice as much investment in their navy.

This ignores the fundamental political issue in 1930s Japan: the ridiculous degree of rivalry between their Army and Navy, and the lack of civilian control over them. War in China was the Army's foreign policy, war with the colonising powers and the USA was the Navy's foreign policy. They did both, because neither was willing to cede priority. The Pacific Theatre was largely the US against the Imperial Japanese Navy.

[AlexanderHowl]

I agree, but that is the point. The only way that Japan could have been a sustained threat would have been if the Navy had been given priority over the Army. It was ludicrous for an island nation to make the Army equal (or even superior) to the Navy.

[adm]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

...Since they would have been unable, due to treaties, to build more battleships and cruisers, they would have likely focused on aircraft carriers and submarines. ...

All ship types were limited by the Washington Naval Treaties, both in tonnage per unit, and total tonnage built. One of the few areas that both the U.S. and Japan agreed on during the negotiations was the need for larger sized, or Fleet, destroyers than Britain, France, or Italy wanted. The Pacific needed larger sizes to have enough fuel to go very far. Japan built up to their limits across the board, as did everyone else. Japan spent far more effort refitting everything with the latest equipment, and training all crew to as good as they could be.

Japan also had an advantage over the other powers in that all of their colonies were right next door. Britain and France's were scattered around the world. The U.S.'s was generally better off in that most of their colonies were closer to home than to likely opponents, with the exception of Guam and the Philippines. Italy's was in a similar position to the U.S., but worse off, most were on the Mediterranean and close, but their east African colonies would be effectively cut off if Britain was hostile.

[AlexanderHowl]

Aircraft carriers at the time could be disguised as merchant ships (though they would have required refitting to come into military service) and submarines are meant to be hidden. The Imperial Japanese Navy did the best that they could with the resources they had, but Japan was spending $3 on the Army for every $1 on the Navy until the day that they surrendered. I think that the Japanese would have had a better showing if those numbers had been reduced.

Even if they had not built more ships, they could have used the money reallocated from the Army for bombers and fighters. With more bombers (especially torpedo bombers) and fighters to support their naval forces, Japan would have done much better in WW II. Since the fighters that protected U.S. bombers against Japanese fighters had limited range, depriving the fighters of safe bases of operation would have effectively prevented U.S. bombers from operating against the Japanese. Without the sneak attack against Pearl Harbor as a rallying cry, how many aircraft carriers would the Japanese have been required to sink before the U.S. decided that regaining Guam and the Philippines was not worth the cost?

[tshiggins]

Originally Posted by David Johnston2

Bah. The Infinite Worlds setting is filled with improbable histories. The Draka setting is no more fundamentally unlikely than one where the Nazis conquer the world.

I'd say it's considerably less likely. That said, the notion that the Nazis could conquer the world is pretty far out there.

However, that idea gets included in GURPS material for the same reason that even Munchkin has Nazis as a monster card.

Every game is better when you get to kill Nazis!

[acrosome]

Originally Posted by maximara

The B29 had a range of 5,592 miles. This is well within the 3000 miles needed to reach Japan from continental America proposed in Victory Through Air Power Sure the plans would have to land in China after the bombing runs but it was doable.

Annnnnd... there were certainly reason why the US didn't do that. It was too damned hard to supply the airfields in China. As a matter fact we did try launching B-29s from China in 1944, and it was exactly the dismal failure that you would suspect that it was. The fact that the B-29s were all the very early models that hadn't had bugs like exploding engines worked out yet added to the catastrophe. Losses were extreme. Not the USAAF's proudest moment.

Note that Tokyo was over 2000 miles from the airfields in western China, and Seattle to Tokyo is 4800 miles. So, flying from the mainland US over Tokyo to China was not going to work. Attu is only about 2000 miles from Tokyo, but even that's not really workable. Not with any decent payload. When you could launch at all, that is, due to the dismal weather.

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

In addition, FDR would have likely been more concerned about the Germans. With the UK forced into peace and European Russia under Nazi control, the entirety of continental Europe would have been under Nazi control. By 1945, Hitler would have likely turned his attention to the USA, which would have likely been forced to sue for peace with the Japanese in order to fight the Germans. With only a single front, the Germans would have likely been quite a challenge, especially since the UK would have already been forced into peace.

With what could Germany threaten the US in 1945? The mainland US was essentially unassailable. In fact, under that scenario Germany's primary goal would be not to antagonize the US.

[adm]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

Aircraft carriers at the time could be disguised as merchant ships (though they would have required refitting to come into military service) and submarines are meant to be hidden. The Imperial Japanese Navy did the best that they could with the resources they had, but Japan was spending $3 on the Army for every $1 on the Navy until the day that they surrendered. I think that the Japanese would have had a better showing if those numbers had been reduced.

Of the Axis powers, Japan was scrupulous about following signed* treaties. Even base building on the Pacific islands was limited by treaty in the 1920s and 1930's. That said, better spending priorities were definitely needed.

*They were not signatures to the Geneva Accords.

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

Even if they had not built more ships, they could have used the money reallocated from the Army for bombers and fighters. With more bombers (especially torpedo bombers) and fighters to support their naval forces, Japan would have done much better in WW II.

The biggest issue for Japan by 1944 was trained pilots, and effective aircraft. While Japanese pilots in 1941 were far better trained than U.S. pilots, the U.S. did a much better job of training replacements than any other power. The U.S. oil resources along the Gulf of Mexico gave them a massive training advantage. More pilots, and aircraft earlier would have helped Japan, better R&D, more production facilities, and a better pilot training regimen would have helped later.

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

Since the fighters that protected U.S. bombers against Japanese fighters had limited range, depriving the fighters of safe bases of operation would have effectively prevented U.S. bombers from operating against the Japanese.

Very few Japanese fighters could operate at the altitudes B29s could, unfortunately to fly at those heights cut to much into payload due to fuel consumption. That was one of the primary reasons Lemay had them do area bombing at night.

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

Without the sneak attack against Pearl Harbor as a rallying cry, how many aircraft carriers would the Japanese have been required to sink before the U.S. decided that regaining Guam and the Philippines was not worth the cost?

One would assume that the Bataan Death March would still occur here. Between that, and the destruction of the U.S. Fleet, I would be very surprised if that was not enough to guarantee Japan's destruction. Look at what the U.S. has done in the Middle East since 911, with a far less threatening foe.

[adm]

Originally Posted by maximara

If anything a focus on Germany would result in more funding of the Manhattan Project not less. Remember the whole reason the United States put so much in the Manhattan Project was fear that Germany would get the atom bomb first. It wouldn't be until Germany surrendered and the records sifted (1946 at the earliest) that it was realized they were about 3 years behind the Manhattan Project.

My comment was for little or no effort on Germany, with no deceleration of war from Hitler, resources would have been directed far more heavily on Japan.

If more effort was concentrated on Germany, then more effort may have been placed on the Manhattan Project, although most of the delay on it was scientific understanding of what/how to do next. A LOT of resources were allocated here, on a project no one was sure would even work.

Originally Posted by maximara

The B29 had a range of 5,592 miles. This is well within the 3000 miles needed to reach Japan from continental America proposed in Victory Through Air Power Sure the plans would have to land in China after the bombing runs but it was doable.

The 5,000 mile range is with a 2,000 pound payload. The Fatman design was 10,300 pounds. I don't know how much that cuts it's range, but with 20,000 pounds the range was only 2,600 miles.

Originally Posted by acrosome

Annnnnd... there were certainly reason why the US didn't do that. It was too damned hard to supply the airfields in China. ...

maximara's plan was more akin to shuttle bombing, not actually basing in China. For a-bomb drops, this may be practical.

Originally Posted by acrosome

Note that Tokyo was over 2000 miles from the airfields in western China, and Seattle to Tokyo is 4800 miles. So, flying from the mainland US over Tokyo to China was not going to work. Attu is only about 2000 miles from Tokyo, but even that's not really workable. Not with any decent payload. When you could launch at all, that is, due to the dismal weather.

And this is the big reason we needed Guam back. Although a practical air to air refueling method had been worked out in the mid 30's. It could have been used in the Pacific. Post war a lot of B29s and B50s became aerial tankers for other aircraft.

Originally Posted by acrosome

With what could Germany threaten the US in 1945? The mainland US was essentially unassailable. In fact, under that scenario Germany's primary goal would be not to antagonize the US.

The biggest threat would be Germany's advantage in long range rockets. Without Operation Paperclip, U.S. solid rocket design would lag far behind. The loss of aerodynamic and materials research data would also retard liquid rocket designs. If atomic weapons are first used by someone other than Germany, Germany will quickly build them. German non-racial science was the best in the world in the 1930's, even with the anti-Semitic brain drain, German science was still very advanced. However these threats probably would not emerge before 1950ish.