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 07-14-2018, 03:00 PM #1 RobW     Join Date: Mar 2018 Quick simulation of UC rules In the Advanced Combat Skills thread, Steve suggested we could help in the form of simulations. I did a simulated round-robin tournament comparing a UC V beginning figure and some other "basic" fighters. The fighters just run up and bash each other 1000 times and win rate is recorded. For simplicity the other fighters were IQ 8, ST+DX = 24, unarmored, with appropriate sword weapon for ST, one-handed weapons included a small shield. The UC.V fighter is ST 8 DX 12 IQ 12, he kicks for 4d-4 damage. He is -3 to hit and damage to him reduced by 4. I am actually hoping I have done this incorrectly, so do let me know. The table below gives the results. Rows give the win rates for the figure against the different foes. Columns therefore give the loss rates against the different foes. Sorry for the bad formatting, but the results are striking. UC.V beginning figure wins 92%-99% of the time against these other beginning figures. .... .ST09 .ST10 .ST11 .ST12 .ST13 .ST14 .ST15 .UC.V ST09 ----- 0.283 0.186 0.150 0.172 0.321 0.378 0.011 ST10 0.726 ----- 0.441 0.392 0.395 0.521 0.569 0.033 ST11 0.836 0.571 ----- 0.518 0.492 0.613 0.623 0.068 ST12 0.842 0.606 0.490 ----- 0.538 0.630 0.668 0.077 ST13 0.829 0.589 0.500 0.462 ----- 0.624 0.649 0.081 ST14 0.672 0.482 0.404 0.374 0.406 ----- 0.613 0.057 ST15 0.591 0.424 0.356 0.314 0.301 0.387 ----- 0.041 UC.V 0.996 0.967 0.933 0.927 0.925 0.939 0.952 ----- Last edited by RobW; 07-14-2018 at 04:35 PM. Reason: corrected table (no impact on conclusions)
07-14-2018, 03:08 PM   #2
Rick_Smith

Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Coquitlam B.C.
Re: Quick simulation of UC rules

Quote:
 Originally Posted by RobW ... I did a simulated round-robin tournament comparing a UC V beginning figure and some other "basic" fighters. ...
Hi RobW.
Many thanks. This work is worthy of careful study.

Warm regards, Rick

 07-14-2018, 03:33 PM #3 larsdangly   Join Date: Dec 2017 Re: Quick simulation of UC rules I have a similar program I can run; I haven't done so yet, but I have done this sort of thing enough to find your results totally believable. If the rules as suggested end up as canon there really won't be any viable starting fighter besides a ST 8 martial artist with UC V. That can't possibly be the intent, so hopefully we'll see some revisions!
 07-14-2018, 03:38 PM #4 Steve Jackson President and EIC   Join Date: Jul 2004 Re: Quick simulation of UC rules Have already nerfed the UC stuff a bit, but I still have pages of comments to read through before I post anything new. Note also, for what it's worth, that the UC fighter is a specialist in fighting humanoids, up close. If I had to upset a party of TFT martial artists, I would plague them with archers, rats, and maybe a giant or two.
07-14-2018, 03:45 PM   #5
Chris Rice

Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: London Uk, but originally from Scotland
Re: Quick simulation of UC rules

Quote:
 Originally Posted by RobW In the Advanced Combat Skills thread, Steve suggested we could help in the form of simulations. I did a simulated round-robin tournament comparing a UC V beginning figure and some other "basic" fighters. The fighters just run up and bash each other 1000 times and win rate is recorded. For simplicity the other fighters were IQ 8, ST+DX = 24, unarmored, with appropriate sword weapon for ST, one-handed weapons included a small shield. The UC.V fighter is ST 8 DX 12 IQ 12, he kicks for 4d-4 damage. He is -3 to hit and damage to him reduced by 4. I am actually hoping I have done this incorrectly, so do let me know. The table below gives the results. Rows give the win rates for the figure against the different foes. Columns therefore give the loss rates against the different foes. Sorry for the bad formatting, but the results are striking. UC.V beginning figure wins 92%-98% of the time against these other beginning figures. .... ..ST09 ..ST10 ..ST11 ..ST12 ..ST13 ..ST14 ..ST15 ..UC.V ST09 ------ 0.3983 0.3703 0.4111 0.4063 0.6070 0.6102 0.0159 ST10 0.6070 ------ 0.5045 0.5112 0.5430 0.6444 0.7083 0.0596 ST11 0.6259 0.4906 ------ 0.5307 0.5505 0.6847 0.6854 0.0717 ST12 0.5982 0.4967 0.4664 ------ 0.5593 0.6504 0.6959 0.0790 ST13 0.6071 0.4578 0.4405 0.4574 ------ 0.6206 0.6748 0.0771 ST14 0.3867 0.3630 0.3262 0.3494 0.3691 ------ 0.6167 0.0649 ST15 0.3810 0.2955 0.3078 0.2907 0.3225 0.3832 ------ 0.0498 UC.V 0.9836 0.9380 0.9266 0.9242 0.9278 0.9428 0.9504 ------
I was pretty certain the proposals were overpowered, but that's insane!! Good work though and a very useful tool.

 07-14-2018, 03:49 PM #6 tomc     Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Carrboro, NC Re: Quick simulation of UC rules Well, that is what you'd expect a Master of the Martial Arts to do to a starting character. But it would take a heckuva backstory for me to believe a starting character is already a Master. I'd make them more expensive somehow. Edited to ask: For kick damage, does "do one extra die of damage compared to your bare-hands attack" refer to the bare-hands attack including the UC bonus? Maybe it should be a bonus based on ST which doesn't stack with the bare hands damage bonus. __________________ OgreMap2 Freedom of Speech is not Freedom of Podium Last edited by tomc; 07-14-2018 at 03:52 PM.
 07-14-2018, 03:57 PM #7 JLV     Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Far northern California Re: Quick simulation of UC rules I'd say the simplest solution to the problem is to nerf the kick and nerve strike a bit, and raise the DX requirements for the higher levels of UC (say, UC IV and V).
 07-14-2018, 05:06 PM #8 Skarg   Join Date: May 2015 Re: Quick simulation of UC rules Of course he wins 90+ % of the time. He does 4d-4 (average 10, only 1/2 point short of a ST 15 battleaxe) damage at DX 12, soaks as much as if he's wearing half plate, and is at -3 to be hit. I don't know why it wasn't immediately obvious to everyone that the kicking rules were off the charts. He's about on par with an olde-TFT character with ST 15 DX 17(12) IQ 8, Battleaxe, Half Plate AND a -3DX Blur spell cast on him, but 7 points of fatigue. Only he's also MA 10, not to mention he will also beat youl you in HTH and can toss you there, etc... I.e. He's a like a fully armed/armored 40-point character with a magic spell on him. Anyone still surprised?
07-14-2018, 05:10 PM   #9
Rick_Smith

Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Coquitlam B.C.
Re: Quick simulation of UC rules

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Skarg Of course he wins 90+ % of the time. ... I don't know why it wasn't immediately obvious to everyone that the kicking rules were off the charts. ...
Hi Skarg,
It WAS obvious to us.

Rick

07-14-2018, 05:16 PM   #10
Skarg

Join Date: May 2015
Re: Quick simulation of UC rules

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Rick_Smith It WAS obvious to us.
Not to everyone, judging by it being posted, and quite a few responses not mentioning noticing anything amiss. There's a heat wave here, so it was all feeling a bit Twilight-Zone-like to me.

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