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Old 12-03-2006, 06:35 PM   #1
Kitsune
 
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Default Impending Crisis in THS?

I suspect circa 2120 the conditions will exist for a major population movement off world, thanks to the completion of the Earth beanstalk and a desire to escape from growing social instability on Earth caused by increasing distance as societies transition out from Fourth Wave to Fifth Wave and FW entities demand full reproductive rights, leaving those stuck in Third Wave to Fourth Wave transition completly behind in terms of numbers and economic power.

David L. Pulver





Transhuman Space is said to be an essentially optimistic setting. And on the surface it seems indeed so: no really desastrous wars have happened in the 21st century, dictatorships haven’t taken over the world and people are richer and healthier than ever.

But somehow one can get the impression that dark clouds are gathering just beyond the horizon. Could it be that the world of THS is headed for some major desaster in the near future, especially if one looks at the situation with the existence of SAIs and Ghosts in mind?


Lots of questions come to mind:

What if even more powerful infomorphs are created? (Looking back one can assume that a SAI-11 is developed before 2110).
What if a nondestructive mind uploading technology is invented? And what if sapient AIs demand the right to procreate? Wouldn’t the result be utter chaos?

Aren’t biosophonts destined to become obsolete or at least overpowered by infomorphs in the near future? Won’t sapient AIs or mind emulations control more and more important positions in societies everywhere? Will the Earth of the year 2200 be a planet ruled and inhabited primarily by artifical intelligences?

What will happen? Will biosophonts start to develope more and more negative attitudes towards sapient Ais when something of the above comes to pass? Or will they peacefully submit to whatever happens?
Will there even be a war between biological and cybernetical entities? And if, how could it be fought? Who would win?

Or is a peaceful coexistence of biosophonts and Ais possible in the long run? And if so, how could it look like?
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Last edited by Kitsune; 12-03-2006 at 06:56 PM.
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Old 12-03-2006, 07:05 PM   #2
Jürgen Hubert
 
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Default Re: Impending Crisis in THS?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitsune
But somehow one can get the impression that dark clouds are gathering just beyond the horizon. Could it be that the world of THS is headed for some major desaster in the near future, especially if one looks at the situation with the existence of SAIs and Ghosts in mind?
Well, the "Golden 20s" didn't seem too bad to most people - right until the Great Depression hit...

And there are also some major generational conflicts on Earth - the Old Guard who unlike leaders in previous centuries just won't go away versus increasingly alien younger generations. In fact, the age spread is greater than in any time of human history!

Quote:
Lots of questions come to mind:

What if even more powerful infomorphs are created? (Looking back one can assume that a SAI-11 is developed before 2110).
What if a nondestructive mind uploading technology is invented? And what if sapient AIs demand the right to procreate? Wouldn’t the result be utter chaos?
Actually, SAIs can procreate in some parts of the world (the EU, for example), though there are restrictions on how often they can do that.

Quote:
Aren’t biosophonts destined to become obsolete or at least overpowered by infomorphs in the near future? Won’t sapient AIs or mind emulations control more and more important positions in societies everywhere? Will the Earth of the year 2200 be a planet ruled and inhabited primarily by artifical intelligences?
SAIs are already a significant power block within the EU, and I expect this trend to continue. But so far it seems to be a bloodless revolution, and most humans seem to be distracted by other concerns. Funny how that works, huh?

Quote:
What will happen? Will biosophonts start to develope more and more negative attitudes towards sapient Ais when something of the above comes to pass? Or will they peacefully submit to whatever happens?
I wrote a bit about something like that in Toxic Memes - the "Human Species Retirement" meme...

Quote:
Will there even be a war between biological and cybernetical entities? And if, how could it be fought? Who would win?
Well, the Nanodynamics situation could lead to a war of sorts. And there's a real possibility of an infomorph homeworld in the Deep Beyond...

Quote:
Or is a peaceful coexistence of biosophonts and Ais possible in the long run? And if so, how could it look like?
A benevolent dictatorship by the SAIs, perhaps? After all, they don't have to be malicious towards humanity in the long run, SF stories to the contrary...
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Old 12-03-2006, 09:21 PM   #3
tbrierly
 
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Default Re: Impending Doom in THS

That feeling of impending doom or apocalypse is something that many times and places have felt is right around the corner. However, it seems to me that one of the things that characterises THS is that many of the apocalyptic events that were feared did not happen, and that in general apocalyptic events don't really happen anymore. The world is too complex with too many moving parts, too big and too stable (overall) because of multiple systems which reinforce stability to be subsumed by anything apocalyptic. I can see something like 9-11 perhaps happening again in THS, but not the rise of a Hitler or anything big like that. The nature of things has just changed too much.

A possible exception would be a meteor about to crash into Earth. But I would think by then we would have tracked all possible candidates, so we'd have plenty of warning. And we would have the capability to deal with something like this.
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Old 12-04-2006, 04:04 PM   #4
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Default Re: Impending Doom in THS

SAI-11's may be further away then you postulate: one key element of the receeding singularity mentioned in the core book is that Moore's Law failed, and another is that developing techniques for sentient computing is a realm of diminishing returns.
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Old 12-04-2006, 08:13 PM   #5
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Default Re: Impending Doom in THS

Perhaps the "stars are (finally) right"...
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Old 12-05-2006, 01:06 PM   #6
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Default Re: Impending Doom in THS

Quote:
Originally Posted by tbrierly
I can see something like 9-11 perhaps happening again in THS,
Arguably it already has: the Luna City bombing in the 2080s.
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Old 12-05-2006, 01:07 PM   #7
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Default Re: Impending Doom in THS

I've always felt that the ultimate fate of humanity in a world with AIs is integration. If we ever get real artificial intelligence, humans will eventually have to either heavily cyborg or go completely digital themselves to compete.
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Old 12-05-2006, 02:53 PM   #8
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Default Re: Impending Doom in THS

Or we could, just, you know, get along.
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Old 12-05-2006, 04:21 PM   #9
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Default Re: Impending Doom in THS

That would be the question. Can we in the long run? Get along with AIs, I mean?
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Old 12-05-2006, 06:01 PM   #10
Than
 
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Default Re: Impending Doom in THS

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrTim
Arguably it already has: the Luna City bombing in the 2080s.
And wasn't there a terrorist detonated nuclear fizzle as well?

But I don't think either of these really qualify 9-11 events. In terms of lives lost and property damage they may well have been just as devestating, but the lasting effect of 9-11 was its massive cultural and memetic impact. It shifted the whole focus of US and world policy, laws, and military activity. No terrorist act in THS has had this much influence.
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