AH: After the End of the Beginning

[oldgringo2001]

The end of Harry Turtledove's Pacific War duet left me wondering what kind of world would follow. Adding in the idea that an even more serious situation in the Pacific might affect FDR's health (from Robert Conroy's 1942, a fun read but far less believable than any of Turtledove's AH stories), I came up with the following brain droppings, three timelines based on an early successful invasion of Oahu by the Japanese:

Wallace-2 (Q6, 1965) The second world where Henry Wallace became President (The first was Lenin-1). In this world's history, Japan actually invaded Oahu right after the initial strike at Pearl Harbor, and beat back an attempt to re-take the islands in 1942. There were no North African landings, and although Montgomery was able to push Rommel out of El Alamein, Rommel stopped the British advance at Bengazi and inflicted yet another embarrassing defeat on the British in early 1943. The democrats had lost control of both houses in the November 1942 elections. Perhaps because of the extra strain, Roosevelt died in 1943 shortly after the liberation of Oahu. President Wallace stopped further offensive action in the Pacific in favor of more aid to Russia (naturally) and building up for a cross-channel attack. Wallace also cut back the strategic bombing campaign (“Inhumane and ineffective”) which meant the Luftwaffe did not suffer massive losses against the American escort fighters in the first part of 1944 that it did in our history. Montgomery was ousted, so his beefing up of the landings from five to eight divisions did not happen. The landings were made in May 1944, and they failed. Naturally, this ended Eisenhower's military career and aborted his political career.

Yamamoto lived on, and made the Japanese Navy more effective than it would have been (though it had lost four fleet carriers by this time). He wisely switched resources from building large warships to building destroyers, smaller escorts, and submarines, and he got his submarines to sink more merchant ships.

Germany pulled off the Kursk offensive, pinching off part of the salient and capturing about 100,000 prisoners. It touted this as a much greater victory than it actually was, which was enough to encourage the Japanese Army to strike at Vladivostok. The Japanese took it, at heavy cost, but the greater effect was cutting off the Pacific route for Lend-Lease shipments. Without those shipments, Stalin adjudged Vladivostok as an inconsequential loss. Hitler's renewed offensive in the late summer of 1944 didn't get far before the fall mud season closed it down, and the lines at the end of 1944 were not much different than at the end of 1943.

Henry Wallace did not even win nomination in 1944, but he ran on a third-party ticket. Douglas MacArthur, dismissed by Wallace, won the Republican nomination and then the election. As soon as he took over (in March—the inaugural date was not changed to January) he canceled plans for another cross-channel invasion and, after protests from the Soviet Union, stopped Lend-Lease to them. He also cut back Lend-Lease to Britain, saying, “They have more than enough to defend themselves.” Everything was now re-focused on defeating the Japanese.

Churchill was turned out of office earlier than in our own history. Clement Atlee's Labor government did not last as long, though, because it's fervid support of Stalin was rewarded by another betrayal: Stalin made another deal with Hitler. The new Tory government under Halifax made its own accommodation.

Stalin did not, however, make peace with Japan. By the time MacArthur had fulfilled his promise to return to the Philippines in 1946, Japan was completely occupied.

Stalin and Hitler were both planning to renew the war, but both died in 1953 (Hitler first). Fascism and Communism continue in their own spheres. Since Wallace had canceled the Manhattan Project, nuclear weapons had not appeared, and still haven't, although nuclear reactors are at about an early-1950s level. Fascism in Britain hasn't elected a government yet, but has been part of the last four coalition governments. America is fairly prosperous, for white people. TL is still 6 with a few TL-7 advances. There are no satellites; interest in large rockets has ebbed.

Wallace-3 (Q7, 1945). This recently discovered world seems to have had the same history as Wallace-2 up until early 1944 when in the space of seven weeks four significant figures were removed: Henry Luce, Colonel Robert McCormack, Robert Taft, and William Randolph Hearst. Instead of MacArthur, Thomas E. Dewey won the nomination, and the election.

Since Wallace was still president, things proceeded much as on Wallace-2 until March 1945. Then Dewey postponed the cross-channel invasion until August. The much stronger and better-supported invasion has obtained a lodgement. American P-80s are proving superior to the Me-262. It is November now. Antwerp is in Allied hands and the Scheldt has just been cleared, but the allies will need some time to resupply, and it looks like winter may shut down this part of the war until spring.

Infinity discovered this world only a few months ago, and they don't know what is going on. Did Centrum assassinate the critical people? Or could it be other Homeliners? So far Japan seems to be doing rather better, but Britain and France would certainly want to help their cross-time counterparts. Israel, of course, would not want a Nazi regime to survive if they can help it. However, there don't seem to have been any rescues of Jews (or Gypsies) so Israel is not high on the list of suspects. Hearst and McCormack are supposed to have died of natural causes (at least officially) but Luce and Taft were aboard a yacht that vanished, and no bodies were recovered.

A-1941-4 (Q5, 1943). This alternate is so new to Infinity it doesn't have a colloquial name yet. It may be an echo of Wallace-2 because it seems to have the same history and the same divergence point. Oahu has been re-taken and the other islands are being cleared. FDR is still alive, but if this is a Wallace-2 echo, he's due to die in only a few weeks. Save him? Make sure he isn't saved? Plus as soon as Homeline Israel learns of this line they are going to jump in, not to mention France, Britain, and (of course) the USA.

[David Johnston2]

Originally Posted by oldgringo2001

Germany pulled off the Kursk offensive, pinching off part of the salient and capturing about 100,000 prisoners. It touted this as a much greater victory than it actually was, which was enough to encourage the Japanese Army to strike at Vladivostok. The Japanese took it, at heavy cost, but the greater effect was cutting off the Pacific route for Lend-Lease shipments. Without those shipments, Stalin adjudged Vladivostok as an inconsequential loss.

Er...that doesn't make much sense. That it was cutting off the lend lease shipments which were greater than than OTL means Stalin would regard it as a huge deal. Also the first world to be named "Wallace" would be named "Wallace" or Wallace-1, not "Wallace-2" It's pretty improbable that Wallace would cancel the Manhattan Project, so there'd probably be a Wallace timeline which in which the three powers are at nuke's point.

[oldgringo2001]

I'll grant that cancelling the Manhattan Project is a bit of a stretch. Basically I have him do it to get nukes out of the postwar world. With nukes, it shapes up looking too much like Reich-2 for my taste. I'm aiming for less pleasant but less important postwar world that Infinity wouldn't commit many resources to. It's the possible echoes that would increase interest.

If MacArthur had become President, though, he wouldn't have had much hesitation about dropping Lend Lease to Russia even if they appeared to be winning their war. He didn't like them, and that was enough. He didn't care about the European war at all, except as a distraction from the real war: Douglas MacArthur's war. Doug was something of an American version of Mussolini: he put on such a good show that he fooled an amazing number of people, including himself. Manchester's American Caesar is a wonderful book except that even Manchester was fooled into thinking MacArthur was much more important than he actually was. MacArthur's accomplishments in World War II didn't affect the outcome at all. His one brilliant military move came in Korea, and he followed that one up with blunders and insubordination that would have gotten any other general not only fired but court-martialed.

And it's Wallace-2 because Wallace-1 became Lenin-1.

"If these walls could talk, they would say something preposterous."
--William Manchester, American Caesar (Commenting on MacArthur's memorial tomb in Norfolk, VA)

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by oldgringo2001

The end of Harry Turtledove's Pacific War duet left me wondering what kind of world would follow. Adding in the idea that an even more serious situation in the Pacific might affect FDR's health (from Robert Conroy's 1942, a fun read but far less believable than any of Turtledove's AH stories), I came up with the following brain droppings, three timelines based on an early successful invasion of Oahu by the Japanese:

Why have every World with Wallace becoming President be a disaster? Why not let Wallace become President and let Stalin choke on a fishbone? Then you'd have a New Deal President back by a powerful Harry Truman in the Senate. Frankly, the US's turn to the right in its post FDR foreign policy didn't bring down the USSR. It was decades of the USSR's internal corruption that flattened them. The USA beat the USSR by outlasting them with a better system.

Why not an alternate world where the USSR expands into the Near East, even taking Mecca. The USA developes energy efficency to a high degree durring the 1950-1990's. Meanwhile the USSR is bled to a slow death by fighting Islamic rebels.

[oldgringo2001]

Originally Posted by Astromancer

Why have every World with Wallace becoming President be a disaster? Why not let Wallace become President and let Stalin choke on a fishbone? Then you'd have a New Deal President back by a powerful Harry Truman in the Senate. Frankly, the US's turn to the right in its post FDR foreign policy didn't bring down the USSR. It was decades of the USSR's internal corruption that flattened them. The USA beat the USSR by outlasting them with a better system.

I really don't know much about Wallace. I've never read a biography of him. I do know at least one was published recently. But I do know he let FDR maneuver him out of the vice presidency, and that does not exactly mark him out as a savvy political leader. If Stalin chokes on a fishbone or Beria poisons him a little earlier, Mao is still around and we still “lose” China, maybe even a little earlier than we did because Wallace would have cut off aid to Chiang sooner. And Wallace, unlike Truman, might really listen to Slizard and at least warn the Japanese about the atomic bomb, giving them special incentive to attack lone B-29s. And he would tell the Russians about it. That wouldn't make any difference at all to the Russians; whoever runs the Soviet Union after Stalin is going to want to get the bomb, and is going to have the same priceless intelligence they had in OTL. But Wallace is going to look like a stooge when the Soviets start acting, well, like the Soviets. He's going to give the Republican right-wing an even bigger hammer to demolish what remains of the New Deal.

If the there wasn't a nasty Soviet Union and a nasty, capable Mao, Henry Wallace might have made a fine President. But then, Neville Chamberlain would have been remembered as a good Prime Minister if it wasn't for Hitler.