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Old 05-21-2020, 12:50 PM   #1
FeiLin
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Default Rolls and no rolls

These are slightly different aspects, but still part of the concept of rolling dice.

1) B349 defines extreme scores for regular contest rolls as (both) below 7 or above 13, for which setting the lower to 10 and adding/subtracting and equal amount to the higher. The examples are A) 5 vs 3 that becomes 12 vs 10, and B) 19 vs 16 that becomes 13 vs 10. Then there’s both being greater than 20, in which case division is used instead. The example here, let’s call it C), is 600 vs 500 that becomes 12 vs 10 (but this example is less relevant, because there’s nothing to relate that high numbers to anyway).

In A), the initial success rate is 4.6% vs 0.5%, which becomes 74.1% vs 50.0%. B) is a bit trickier, since both would fail on the same value, so it’s only the fact that 19 has better margin, but margin doesn’t matter for regular contests, afaik. After, it becomes 83.8% vs 50.0%.

Say two cases of my own, D), which is 13 vs 16 that is 83.8% vs 98.1%, and E) 14 vs 16 that is 90.7% vs 98.1% and becomes 10 vs 12 that equals 50.0% vs 74.1%. I’m not at a computer where or able to calculate/simulate who would win statistically in each case, but the odds at least don’t look the same to me. Also, logically I’d apply critical results to regular contests (possibly also quick ones, somehow), so that if both succeed but one critically, it’s the “critter“ (...) who wins that round. I didn’t find criticals in the raw, however, so I guess that’s irrelevant.

Now, I’m not saying it’s necessarily a bad rule, but in seems a bit inconsistent. It makes me think that all regular contests should see the lower set to 10 and the other modified accordingly, or is that unnecessary trouble for the gain of slightly more consistent results? Or aren’t the probabilities in certain ranges skewed compared with others (like D) compared with E))?





2) On the topic of contests, the example for regular contests is arm wrestling. I’d assume that’s rolling ST with arm ST and relevant advantages/disadvantages included. But that’s the thing. Say I have ST 11 and my friend has ST 9. That would mean I win most of the time, but since I have 37.5% failure rate and my friend has the same to win, I lose 9 out of 64 times, which is 14% (assuming we’re both well rested each time and we don’t use a complicated system of arm wrestling where we incorporate FP or other rules). While that’s not a huge amount, it’s still almost a Bloodbowl turnover, while I’d say that if I arm wrestle someone who I win against, then I’d always win unless we’re fairly even, making the roll unnecessary (I just have higher ST). If it’s 12 vs 8 it’s instead roughly 1/16 or slightly above 6%. Obviously, that’s even lower, but the difference is 4 points. I mean, 4 points in that range is still “below average” vs “above average” (B14), but 4 points as in 6 vs 10 is crippling vs average (which at least sounds like a difference bigger than 6% chance).

What does that type is victory signify, that the character had a bad grip or slid in a puddle of beer on the bar table? Or am I just overestimating the significance?





3) Another thing that puzzles me, is that combat initiative is not rolled for, but instead just comparing a figure. What makes this different or is it mostly practicality that takes priority here? Although, compared to the number of rolls in expanded combat rules, one puny extra roll per character each combat doesn’t seem that arduous...
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Old 05-21-2020, 02:54 PM   #2
Stormcrow
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Ronkonkoma, NY
Default Re: Rolls and no rolls

I think you're looking at GURPS more as statistics and reality modeling than as game rules.

1) The odds aren't the same because gameable rolls are being prioritized over accurate numbers. The bell curve of GURPS is very nice for modeling things, but it's never completely accurate, so a bit of fudging here or there to make play smoother is acceptable.

2) There is technique to arm wrestling beyond measuring sheer muscle capacity. A Regular Contest of ST for arm wrestling assumes that each participant has a chance of not applying their absolute best effort in a given round. Maybe the angle wasn't quite right; maybe you got distracted; maybe your opponent started to push just a hair quicker than you did.

If you believe that a particular contest is purely about sheer force, then just compare Basic Lift of each participant. The higher wins. This means the contest's results will always be invariant, so make sure that's an accurate take on it.

3) D&D tinkerers will often develop elaborate systems, formulas, and tables to simply determine who goes first. GURPS says it's not really that important, so let the quickest person go first. The third edition of GURPS even had two methods of determining initiative: "The Easy Way," which was to roll a die, winner goes first, and "The Realistic Way," which was to compare Move scores. It really didn't matter all that much.

Why not make it a contest? Playability. You don't need to roll, compare, and compute Margins of Victory all round the table just to find out who goes first.
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Old 05-21-2020, 03:32 PM   #3
Curmudgeon
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Default Re: Rolls and no rolls

Quote:
Originally Posted by FeiLin View Post
These are slightly different aspects, but still part of the concept of rolling dice.

1) B349 defines extreme scores for regular contest rolls as (both) below 7 or above 13, for which setting the lower to 10 and adding/subtracting and equal amount to the higher. The examples are A) 5 vs 3 that becomes 12 vs 10, and B) 19 vs 16 that becomes 13 vs 10. Then there’s both being greater than 20, in which case division is used instead. The example here, let’s call it C), is 600 vs 500 that becomes 12 vs 10 (but this example is less relevant, because there’s nothing to relate that high numbers to anyway).

In A), the initial success rate is 4.6% vs 0.5%, which becomes 74.1% vs 50.0%. B) is a bit trickier, since both would fail on the same value, so it’s only the fact that 19 has better margin, but margin doesn’t matter for regular contests, afaik. After, it becomes 83.8% vs 50.0%.

Say two cases of my own, D), which is 13 vs 16 that is 83.8% vs 98.1%, and E) 14 vs 16 that is 90.7% vs 98.1% and becomes 10 vs 12 that equals 50.0% vs 74.1%. I’m not at a computer where or able to calculate/simulate who would win statistically in each case, but the odds at least don’t look the same to me. Also, logically I’d apply critical results to regular contests (possibly also quick ones, somehow), so that if both succeed but one critically, it’s the “critter“ (...) who wins that round. I didn’t find criticals in the raw, however, so I guess that’s irrelevant.

Now, I’m not saying it’s necessarily a bad rule, but in seems a bit inconsistent. It makes me think that all regular contests should see the lower set to 10 and the other modified accordingly, or is that unnecessary trouble for the gain of slightly more consistent results? Or aren’t the probabilities in certain ranges skewed compared with others (like D) compared with E))?
The rule for extreme scores in Regular Contests on B349 was originally an optional rule in 3e. The objective of the optional rule was to speed things up when both contestants had skill levels at the "It'll be decided by who slips on a banana peel first" level. As such the odds are supposed to open up between the contestants which will result in a conclusion being reached sooner. At the lower end of the extremes, it still leaves a gap between the greater and lesser skilled opponents but at least one of them should be succeeding with some regularity rather than both trying and trying to get their first success. In the normal range of scores, you'll get a result quickly enough if you leave the numbers alone.

In short, the odds are supposed to change to eliminate a lot of uneventful rolls, but that's an expedient and it's only necessary at the extremes.


Quote:
2) On the topic of contests, the example for regular contests is arm wrestling. I’d assume that’s rolling ST with arm ST and relevant advantages/disadvantages included. But that’s the thing. Say I have ST 11 and my friend has ST 9. That would mean I win most of the time, but since I have 37.5% failure rate and my friend has the same to win, I lose 9 out of 64 times, which is 14% (assuming we’re both well rested each time and we don’t use a complicated system of arm wrestling where we incorporate FP or other rules). While that’s not a huge amount, it’s still almost a Bloodbowl turnover, while I’d say that if I arm wrestle someone who I win against, then I’d always win unless we’re fairly even, making the roll unnecessary (I just have higher ST). If it’s 12 vs 8 it’s instead roughly 1/16 or slightly above 6%. Obviously, that’s even lower, but the difference is 4 points. I mean, 4 points in that range is still “below average” vs “above average” (B14), but 4 points as in 6 vs 10 is crippling vs average (which at least sounds like a difference bigger than 6% chance).

What does that type is victory signify, that the character had a bad grip or slid in a puddle of beer on the bar table? Or am I just overestimating the significance?
You're overestimating the significance and in part it seems that there's a misconception about what's happening.

The way you're describing the results makes me think that you see what's happening as, "We're arm wrestling. I make my roll, you fail your roll. WHAM! I've pinned your wrist to the table. I win!" If it were a Quick Contest, that would be what happens. But this is a Regular Contest. "I make my roll, you fail your roll" is more in the nature of "I've successfully pushed your arm over. You're now a third of the way to being pinned. If next turn, you make your roll and I fail my roll, you'll successfully push my arm and we'll be back to vertical, the same as when we started."

Regular Contests are meant to have some drama, so there needs to be some chance of success on both sides. In your example of a ST 9 and a ST 11 arm wrestler, the more complete set of odds for each turn is: 46% no movement by either party, 39% the ST 11 arm wrestler is succeeding, 14% the ST 9 arm wrestler is succeeding. It's not completely unreasonable. The ST 11 arm wrestler is roughly 2.5 times more likely to be succeeding at any given point and while it can be troublesome to compare, going by BL, ST 11 and ST 9 aren't very closely matched in ST. The ST 11 character is about 1.5 times as strong as the ST 9 character.

It's the GM's call whether a Contest will be Regular or Quick. A Quick Contest is going to be closer to the "WHAM! I win." scenario but it doesn't really answer the problem of "I should always be able to beat the guy I beat before". For that, you'll need to talk to your GM and he may not agree/may need convincing that you will always be able to beat the guy that you've beaten before. If the GM is calling for a Regular Contest, he's expecting it to be dramatic and there's no drama in a walkover. All that said, a player won't know that his opponent is ST 9 while he's ST 11. Yes, he'll know what's written on his character sheet though his character won't, but there's no reason for the GM to tell you your opponent's ST. His description may lead you to believe that character is stronger or weaker or close to your character's ST, but that character's appearance may belie his actual ability.


Quote:
3) Another thing that puzzles me, is that combat initiative is not rolled for, but instead just comparing a figure. What makes this different or is it mostly practicality that takes priority here? Although, compared to the number of rolls in expanded combat rules, one puny extra roll per character each combat doesn’t seem that arduous...
It's not that arduous to add an extra roll, if the GM rolls that way but Speed, which is the number you're comparing, is pretty much your reflexes in GURPS and the argument is similar to the one you presented for arm wrestling: if I've got better reflexes than you, I should always be able to take the initiative relative to you. If your Speeds are identical, it does go to random chance between you.

On the other hand, although you could, you don't want to take it to the logical extension of rerolling initiative each turn, first, because there are GMs like myself who have players sit around the table in order of their initiative so nobody gets accidentally skipped over and it'd be disruptive if some players had to get up and change their position at the table each turn, and second, it keeps anyone from "going twice in a row/having back-to-back moves".

Last edited by Curmudgeon; 05-21-2020 at 08:30 PM. Reason: clarified table position of players
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Old 05-21-2020, 10:36 PM   #4
RyanW
 
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Southeast NC
Default Re: Rolls and no rolls

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stormcrow View Post
3) D&D tinkerers will often develop elaborate systems, formulas, and tables to simply determine who goes first. GURPS says it's not really that important, so let the quickest person go first.
It's "important" for one turn. After that it's equivalent to arguing which side of a wheel is the top. And even that first turn effect is often unimportant. If the fight begins at a distance, the first few turns are likely to be mostly getting into position. If it starts at arm's length, who goes first is likely determined as much by who decided to start fighting as anything.
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Old 05-22-2020, 06:05 AM   #5
Anaraxes
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Default Re: Rolls and no rolls

Initiative is more important in D&D because that combat is much more like the "chopping down trees" analogy. Alpha strike, DPS (DPR, really), focused DPS, yadda yadda. Going first means doing damage first which might mean taking out a weak opponent with that alpha strike before they do anything. But most of the time, it's good for whittling down their hit points before they whittle down yours, which means for close fights they die just before you do, because you had initiative through the fight.

GURPS has a lot more in the way of options and tactics that influence the outcome. It's also far less obvious that going first is even an advantage. (TFT makes that question even more of a quandary, which is why that initiative system doesn't make your side go first, but instead grants your side the ability to choose who goes first.) Being first to score a hit in GURPS certainly helps -- shock penalties can make a fight snowball, or a lucky crit could decide the fight. But overall, it doesn't matter nearly so much.

Gamist-ly speaking, the reason to roll initiative rather than determine an order is just to make things more interesting and increase the party coordination challenge by breaking up set patterns of behavior. If the party learns (or is built around) some A->B->C combo for minimax effectiveness, then a random element to the initiative means they can't always plan on A going before B going before C -- or at least come at a cost, by using the existence of Delay- / Wait-type maneuvers to realign initiative to the desired tactical order. But of course, you do still get that tactical interaction even if you don't roll initiative, as the action cycle wheel spins around and around.
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