08-29-2011, 12:39 PM | #1 |
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Oldenburg, Germany
|
Political conflicts within the TS-era United States
First of all, I want to say that I'd like to avoid discussing current political conflicts within the USA in order to prevent thread-lock.
Of all the "Big Three" Great Powers, the United States seems to be the most unstable. Here is my best guess for the reasons. The main culprit for the instability are the peculiarities of the American election system which basically ensure that only two partied can old the reign of political power at the federal level - and though their policies, attitudes, allies and voting base have shifted radically over the course of the 21st century, they remain the Democratic and the Republican party. However, the United States have become even more diverse than they were at the beginning of the 21st century, and the many questions arising from Transhumanist and other modern technology have led to a strong diversification of political opinion - so strong that it becomes increasingly difficult for the two parties to encompass the majority of all American political views within their structures. Many views can still find their homes in them (if sometimes grudgingly) - but many more do not, and these feed the numbers of the cyberdemocratic opposition who want to develop alternative schemes for representing political views that can't be found in the two. Of course, the two Big Parties don't want serious alternatives to them to appear. Thus, while they are still opposed to each other, both of them are even more opposed to the cyberdemocratic rebels, and they will do whatever it is in their power to keep real alternatives from developing. Shifting around voting districts is an old hat, but there are also intensive memetic campaigns to convince everyone that "voting for third-party candidates is wasted" - and whenever serious independent candidates develop, memetic campaigns will attack them directly as well. The voting systems will be rigged as much as legally possible to make it harder for the independents, and the various lobby groups allied with the political establishment - whether corporate, ideological, or other - will do their part to make sure that their cozy arrangement with Washington is not disturbed. Of course, the independents have their own allies - but they also spend much of their time fighting each other. After all, they differ enough from the mainstream that their views don't fit into the two mainstream parties by definition! Still, each electoral period the conflict gets worse, and the independents are making some real gains - enough for the political climate in the USA to reach the boiling point in the near future... So, what do you think of this analysis?
__________________
GURPS Repository • Sunken Castles, Evil Poodles - translating German folk tales into English! |
08-29-2011, 12:50 PM | #2 | |
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lawrence, KS
|
Re: Political conflicts within the TS-era United States
Quote:
Bill Stoddard |
|
08-29-2011, 12:56 PM | #3 |
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Oldenburg, Germany
|
Re: Political conflicts within the TS-era United States
I think the current focus is still on changing the existing parties, but not the whole political system itself, including the voting system. In 2100, more and more people might be shooting for a complete overhaul, including constitutional amendments which change the voting system itself - effectively bringing an end to two-party rule.
__________________
GURPS Repository • Sunken Castles, Evil Poodles - translating German folk tales into English! |
08-29-2011, 01:17 PM | #4 |
Aluminated
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: East of the moon, west of the stars, close to buses and shopping
|
Re: Political conflicts within the TS-era United States
My fuzzy recollection of the state of the US at the dawn of the 22nd century brings to mind, politically, something closer to the dawn of the 20th century than the 21st. As it becomes increasingly decentralized, the US may be evolving in the direction of local and regional parties reemerging as the dominant political powers. This doesn't mean a simmering political conflict about to explode on the main stage so much as old and increasingly disused institutions becoming irrelevant. Perhaps, say, the southwest is dominated by contests between the Four Corners party and the Pan-Native Alliance for local and state-level offices. Each routinely endorses the presidential candidate of one or other national parties and tries to send senators and represenatives in that direction. However, federal politics are falling back into the hands of national party steering committees, and more and more people think of themselves politically first as Four Corners or Pan-Native (or Golden State/Big Bear in California or Uplifted Cow in Minnesota and Wisconsin) and only second as Democrat/Republican. The national parties may not want this to happen, but there's very little they can do about it as their constituencies wander off in other directions.
__________________
I've been making pointlessly shiny things, and I've got some gaming-related stuff as well as 3d printing designs. Buy my Warehouse 23 stuff, dammit! |
08-29-2011, 02:03 PM | #5 |
"Gimme 18 minutes . . ."
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Albuquerque, NM
|
Re: Political conflicts within the TS-era United States
I could have sworn I remembered reading that there was actually some low levels of guerilla warfare going on by fringe elements of the cyberdemocracy crowd, and that bioconservatives in general got a strong boost from predominantly catholic hispanic emigrants.
I don't remember if any one party was strongly bioconservative or not according to cannon, though. Last edited by Crakkerjakk; 08-29-2011 at 02:07 PM. |
08-29-2011, 06:48 PM | #6 |
Join Date: Apr 2011
|
Re: Political conflicts within the TS-era United States
This analysis doesn't seem too close to the mark, IMO. Frankly, it appears as though you're viewing the American polity through a European lens.
The US has an open and robust primary system, which is why we can have a two-party system and yet still be so stable (the conflicts between factions and the synthesis of ideas required for policy formation is done by voters during the primaries rather than by politicians behind closed doors after the election when a government is being formed). Canonically, the points Turhan's Bey raised seem better supported: that the US in 2100 has a greater level of sectionalism and increased power for the regional parties-- which fits with the above and is consistent with American political tradition. There are significant second-tier parties (according to THS), and yet the two major parties still tend to dominate. Interest in truly radical political change is very unlikely, at least in the US as written in THS. Reverence for the US constitution on all sides is very strong-- the conflict is over precisely what the constitution actually says. There were fascist and communist movements in the early 20th century that wanted to overthrow the constitution, but they gained very little traction among mainstream Americans. The most popular political movements tend to cloak themselves in reverence for the constitution and its ideals. A cyberdemocrat movement in the US would probably try to do the same, but it would be an uphill battle. As I read the books, (and here we get to my interpretation) the US has had a very bad century. The fourth wave brought massive unemployment in a culture where personal identity is strongly tied to one's work and a new lens through which to view the continuing struggles with racial divisions. Many of America's most powerful cultural features suddenly became detriments in the new economy. Political sclerosis and the rise of China lead to an erosion of America's national pride along with its superpower status. Worst of all, the notion of Jeffersonian autonomy took a fatal blow. In the 20th century, the ideal of the gentleman-farmer had to be abandoned. It was replaced with a suburban lifestyle that had be shoe-horned in, and has never fit very well. Many weird and radical movements draw on this longing... and while militias and communes would never admit it, they're both drawing from the same cultural stream. If the white picket fence and the SUV in the 'burbs was a poor substitute, at least it's something. The fourth wave took that away, and replaced it with nothing. But things look very bright for America in the 22nd century. The fifth wave (at least as written) seems to evoke a return to Jeffersonian idealism and personal autonomy. American distaste for social welfare systems (even by those who benefit from them, which is a cripplingly major problem in the fourth wave era) has had a century to weaken; but the view may even help in a nano-economy. The Isolates are a strong cultural movement in America-- and I'd argue they're a return to an old American ideal. Economically, the Titan project not only makes America the saudi arabia of the 22nd century (supplanting Europe/China's lunar colonies, who were the saudis of the 21st century), it also positions America in the Deep Beyond, where I think it has a fighting chance of the kind of success that eluded it on Mars, and where the base looks much less like a white elephant and much more like the wild west. China is #1 and seems likely to remain there. Chinese stability has always been a function of its prosperity. So long as that prosperity continues (and I see no reason why it won't), their government will retain the mandate of heaven. On the other hand, Europe appears to be on the cusp of major decline, a victim of changing economic patterns and preservationist squeamishness. Preservationists may be right in some cosmic moral sense (I don't want to argue that here) but their moral rigidity will come at a steep cost in economic and human capital. Could the Europeans' antimatter production on Mercury revitalize them? Maybe.... and they might well take the lead in nanotech. Certainly the best academic work is there, but intellectual and human capital are far too mobile for that to be a guarantee of anything. So you've got the Wild West (titan), and a country that finally has the technological infrastructure to support its cultural heterogeneity. It's a picture of a country on the upswing. If I were running a game in the United States (and I am), the theme would be "We're back!" |
08-29-2011, 09:11 PM | #7 | ||
☣
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Southeast NC
|
Re: Political conflicts within the TS-era United States
Quote:
Quote:
Parahuman Popular Front? Splitters!
__________________
RyanW - Actually one normal sized guy in three tiny trenchcoats. |
||
08-29-2011, 10:19 PM | #8 |
Banned
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: a crooked, creaky manse built on a blasted heath
|
Re: Political conflicts within the TS-era United States
I find the idea of the Republicans and Democrats to still be dominant forces in 2100 to be a little odd. Oh, it's not impossible, but it does seem somewhat unlikely.
The Democrats have only been around since about 1832, and the Republicans since 1854. We had other parties before those two. BTW, Thomas Jefferson called himself and his party 'Republican', although this term was sometimes used interchangeably with the label 'democrat.' Jefferson's party is sometimes known as the 'Democratic-Republican Party', to avoid confusion with the modern parties. Last edited by combatmedic; 08-30-2011 at 12:18 AM. |
08-29-2011, 11:06 PM | #9 |
Banned
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: a crooked, creaky manse built on a blasted heath
|
Re: Political conflicts within the TS-era United States
I think it would more plasuible, interesting and just plain FUN to postulate a breakdown of the current party system and a major realignment of interests and factions in a new (sixth) party system. THS is supposed to be a future of rapid, even terrifying social and technological change. It seems to me that the issues in THS America are as profound and divisive as slavery, federal supermacy vs states rights, high tariffs vs free trade, etc. I'm pretty sure at least one of the parties would fail under such conditions, and out of its corpse would arise new parties. The electoral system might favor a two party structure- but there's little reason to assume it has to be the same two parties we have now.
YMMV Last edited by combatmedic; 08-29-2011 at 11:13 PM. |
08-29-2011, 11:09 PM | #10 |
Banned
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: a crooked, creaky manse built on a blasted heath
|
Re: Political conflicts within the TS-era United States
ADDITIONAL THOUGHT-
Maybe abolitionism returns in force as a new party forms to oppose the enslavement of artificially created intellgent beings. Seriously, guys, this is a major moral issue with significant economic dimensions. I could see a big political fight over it. |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|