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Old 09-07-2018, 07:23 PM   #31
Flyndaran
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Default Re: Why do dopplegangers keep being born centuries after a divergence?

I doubt there's any in our galaxy, but in the entire observable universe? It's over 46 billion light years across. That is just too huge of an volume to make such claims, IMO.
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Old 09-07-2018, 09:14 PM   #32
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Default Re: Why do dopplegangers keep being born centuries after a divergence?

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Originally Posted by Flyndaran View Post
I doubt there's any in our galaxy, but in the entire observable universe? It's over 46 billion light years across. That is just too huge of an volume to make such claims, IMO.
Look st the math. I can’t do it but the people who can say it’s so... they might be wrong, but I can’t prove it... and nobody can prove anything simply by saying “I don’t like the answer so it must be wrong”.
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Old 09-08-2018, 02:21 AM   #33
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Default Re: Why do dopplegangers keep being born centuries after a divergence?

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Originally Posted by tanksoldier View Post
Look st the math. I can’t do it but the people who can say it’s so... they might be wrong, but I can’t prove it... and nobody can prove anything simply by saying “I don’t like the answer so it must be wrong”.
Well, "the people" is 3 guys who did a literature review, and their conclusion includes the chance that there is a 47% possibility of there being other life in our galaxy:
When we update this prior in light of the Fermi observation, we find a
substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our
observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively)


In any case, any paper that uses the Drake Equation and argues that N=1 has to then explain why N isn't 0.
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Old 09-08-2018, 03:31 AM   #34
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Default Re: Why do dopplegangers keep being born centuries after a divergence?

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Originally Posted by Daigoro View Post
Well, "the people" is 3 guys who did a literature review, and their conclusion includes the chance that there is a 47% possibility of there being other life in our galaxy:
When we update this prior in light of the Fermi observation, we find a
substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our
observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively)


In any case, any paper that uses the Drake Equation and argues that N=1 has to then explain why N isn't 0.
There's an important point you're leaving out: the new math approach, using Monte Carlo Markov Chains. Instead of picking one particular value for each factor of the Drake Equation and having to argue for every one of those particular values being the right value, they used a more powerful mathematical technique, which incorporates other peoples' guesses for those factors. It's a much deeper approach than merely "performing a literature review"; I'm hoping to apply it to one or two other issues myself, when I've got the time to brush up on my scripting skills.
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Old 09-08-2018, 03:58 PM   #35
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Default Re: Why do dopplegangers keep being born centuries after a divergence?

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Well, those worldlines are so close to each other that they are in the same "spot", cosmically. Maybe they're so close that a conveyor can't distinguish between them -- but it's ok, people can't tell the difference either.

This means that there's actually a practically infinite number of Homelines, but since there's also a practically infinite number of destinations for each shipment, it actually works out fine. Nearly every time, anyway.
It makes one wonder how they avoid the occasional doubling-up.
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Old 09-08-2018, 04:25 PM   #36
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Default Re: Why do dopplegangers keep being born centuries after a divergence?

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In any case, any paper that uses the Drake Equation and argues that N=1 has to then explain why N isn't 0.
Weak Anthropic Principle (the minimalist version at the top). If you've written the paper, you know N isn't 0 by example.
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Old 09-08-2018, 07:59 PM   #37
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Default Re: Why do dopplegangers keep being born centuries after a divergence?

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Originally Posted by Ulzgoroth View Post
Weak Anthropic Principle (the minimalist version at the top). If you've written the paper, you know N isn't 0 by example.
Yeah, so the theory has to match the observation.
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Old 09-11-2018, 11:55 AM   #38
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Default Re: Why do dopplegangers keep being born centuries after a divergence?

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There's been a new paper released on this topic, "Dissolving the Fermi Paradox", readable at https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404 . The short, probably slightly-inaccurate version: Using some better math than has been previously applied, and taking into account the lack of any evidence of visitors, there's more than a 99% chance we're the only sophonts in our galaxy, and there's good odds we're the only ones in the universe.
The problem with this is related to fi, fc and L.

While L in the past has been how long the civilization lasts is has had 'revealing their existence via signal release into space' added to the mix.

The Fermi Paradox Compendium goes into the many possible solutions which is broken up into four broad categories:

1) Alien Civilizations are rare
2) We can't detect them
3) We can't recognize them
4) Miscellaneous

One idea is there simply hasn't been much time.

Home sapiens has been around about 200,000 years but civilization is only about 5,000 years and our radio signals roughly 80 years.

Another solution comes from EC's Weird Science (IIRC) where the refugees of Earth find out that they have no resistance to the diseases on the first planet they land on. More over the younger generation has no concept of nature resulting in Agoraphobia and host of other issues.

They eventually conclude that they can't really live on that or any other planet and return to the comfort of the stars.

Last edited by maximara; 09-11-2018 at 12:31 PM.
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