The Act of Smuggling

[Dalillama]

Originally Posted by tbrock1031

Another thing to factor in is to consider how 'hot" the cargo is perceived to be by the smugglers, as that'll affect the fees they charge, as opposed to the punishments delivered.

Remember, Han originally charged Ben ten thousand credits for "avoiding Imperial entanglements", and then later remarked, "Our passengers must be hotter than I thought," with the implication that he would have charged more had he known just how badly the Imperials wanted them. (That Ben was already offering more upon arrival - presumably from Alderaan's House Organa - was also factored into his acceptance of the trip.) If he had thought his passengers would have been worth more - or if he'd known ahead of time just what kinds of trouble they'd get him into - he may have charged up to twice what he originally quoted, or perhaps refused them altogether.

Well, yes; to liken it to the present, it's like taking a fee to smuggle some people you think are undocumented immigrants looking across the border, and it turns out that it's actually someone like Edward Snowden, and people are going to be looking a lot harder for him than for a new migrant laborer; In the former case, passing off a relatively minor bribe to a border control officer might get you off entirely if you're caught, and if not you're not going to get more than a fine and looked at harder next time you're seen crossing the border, where in the latter case, you might find yourself charged as an accessory to all kinds of things, and looking at quite an unpleasant future.

[Jinumon]

Originally Posted by thrash

Spaceships 2 discusses Low-Legality goods in the box on p. 39, illegal goods as a complication on p. 42.

It only lists rules for Speculative Trade, however, that is receiving a penalty for looking for a buyer but a bonus on the negotiation process. It says for Freight you assume the shipper already arranged bribes, alibis, etc. But I don't think that's always realistic, and there are plenty of times that smugglers charge a risk premium. The big question is: how big is that premium?

[Phantasm]

Originally Posted by Jinumon

It only lists rules for Speculative Trade, however, that is receiving a penalty for looking for a buyer but a bonus on the negotiation process. It says for Freight you assume the shipper already arranged bribes, alibis, etc. But I don't think that's always realistic, and there are plenty of times that smugglers charge a risk premium. The big question is: how big is that premium?

This, I think is entirely subjective. Let the players charge what they want.

[Jinumon]

Originally Posted by tbrock1031

This, I think is entirely subjective. Let the players charge what they want.

I get that and can respect it. Granted, plenty of negotiation is going to be happening. It's just that as the GM playing the potential client, shouldn't I have something to go off of to say whether or not what the players are asking is ridiculously over- or under- priced?

I could try figuring out average profit margins for the owners of the goods, and then give the players something of a finders fee. Thus, if they're delivering stims to a stims-starved world, and the Hutt selling them will be making more money as a result, their premium will be bigger.

What percentage is standard for a finder's fee? And should smuggling be more or less than a finder's fee?

[Anthony]

The amount a smuggler will charge isn't really based on the value of the thing being smuggled: it's based on the perceived risk to the smuggler. Add 'magnitude of penalty' * 'odds of being caught' to the transport price (you will need to come up with a value for non-monetary penalties). This is likely to be highly nonlinear, in that carrying ten times as much of an illegal substance probably doesn't result in ten times the chance of getting caught, ten times the fine, or even ten times the (odds of getting caught)*(fine). In places with high corruption, you can just add expected bribes to the smuggler's fee.

[Dalillama]

Originally Posted by Jinumon

I get that and can respect it. Granted, plenty of negotiation is going to be happening. It's just that as the GM playing the potential client, shouldn't I have something to go off of to say whether or not what the players are asking is ridiculously over- or under- priced?

I could try figuring out average profit margins for the owners of the goods, and then give the players something of a finders fee. Thus, if they're delivering stims to a stims-starved world, and the Hutt selling them will be making more money as a result, their premium will be bigger.

What percentage is standard for a finder's fee? And should smuggling be more or less than a finder's fee?

Figure how much the originator paid for it, and how much the recipient expects to sell it for. Assume that the maximum that the PCs can squeeze out of the deal is half the difference between those numbers. (If they ask less, that's on their heads; if it can't be done without more, then you haven't figured out the right set of numbers, because no-one would be hiring freelance smugglers to ship that). To get the number for how much it's worth at the destination, subtract the LC from the CR and multiply the base cost by the difference. After that, and another *2-3 for situations where the buyer is desperate and can't go elsewhere. Alternately, the PCs can buy the goods outright from the originator (paying 25%-75% markups, depending on their Merchant skills), and then try to sell them themselves (getting the full calculated price will probably require some streetwise checks, some merchant checks, and some roleplaying).

[Jinumon]

I think I figured out a pretty good system, and I figured I'd answer my own question for the sake of anyone who was curious about the same topic.

So let's return to the hypothetical situation where a Hutt wants the players to smuggle some illegal stims.

First, let's say that Gihrada the Hutt wants them to smuggle 1 ton of the stuff. It's a relatively small ship, and he doesn't want to risk losing more of it if his smugglers are caught. Pharmaceuticals are valued at G$1,000,000 per ton, and stims are pretty much pharmaceuticals. Now, Gihrada has been in the stim business a long time, and he creates his own product with an assembly line of chemists, indentured laborers, and slaves. As such, we'll allow him a bit of a discount from the usual 50% cost to create a product, down to 40%. Gihrada creates a single ton of illegal stims with a G$400,000 investment. The Hutt wants the players to deliver these stims to the planet of Corellia, a Rich, Industrial world on the Inner Rim. There, he has a buyer lined up, ready to take it off his hands for 210% it's market value (100% standard, +3 for Industrial, +4 for Rich, +4 for Low Legality on the Actual Price Table in Spaceships 2), or G$2,100,000. His net profit on this venture is G$1,700,000, nothing to scoff at. And now he just needs some people to get it there. Gihrada offers 20% his profit margin to someone who can transport it safely, or G$340,000. A victory in a Quick Contest of Merchant on the part of the players raises it to G$374,000, and Gihrada assures them that if those stims never reach Corellia, they had better hope they don't either.

Anyway, that's my theory on it. What do you guys think?

[Varyon]

Originally Posted by Jinumon

I think I figured out a pretty good system, and I figured I'd answer my own question for the sake of anyone who was curious about the same topic.

So let's return to the hypothetical situation where a Hutt wants the players to smuggle some illegal stims.

First, let's say that Gihrada the Hutt wants them to smuggle 1 ton of the stuff. It's a relatively small ship, and he doesn't want to risk losing more of it if his smugglers are caught. Pharmaceuticals are valued at G$1,000,000 per ton, and stims are pretty much pharmaceuticals. Now, Gihrada has been in the stim business a long time, and he creates his own product with an assembly line of chemists, indentured laborers, and slaves. As such, we'll allow him a bit of a discount from the usual 50% cost to create a product, down to 40%. Gihrada creates a single ton of illegal stims with a G$400,000 investment. The Hutt wants the players to deliver these stims to the planet of Corellia, a Rich, Industrial world on the Inner Rim. There, he has a buyer lined up, ready to take it off his hands for 210% it's market value (100% standard, +3 for Industrial, +4 for Rich, +4 for Low Legality on the Actual Price Table in Spaceships 2), or G$2,100,000. His net profit on this venture is G$1,700,000, nothing to scoff at. And now he just needs some people to get it there. Gihrada offers 20% his profit margin to someone who can transport it safely, or G$340,000. A victory in a Quick Contest of Merchant on the part of the players raises it to G$374,000, and Gihrada assures them that if those stims never reach Corellia, they had better hope they don't either.

Anyway, that's my theory on it. What do you guys think?

Sounds pretty good, although 20% as an initial offer seems a little high. I'd be tempted to drop it to G$300,000, maybe even G$250,000, for the initial offer, with $350,000 as the maximum amount. Come to think of it, with that sort of spread you could have it be G$300,000, with Margin of Victory raising/lowering it by G$10,000 per point.

[Ze'Manel Cunha]

Originally Posted by Jinumon

Anyway, that's my theory on it. What do you guys think?

If the smuggler isn't involved in the production and sale of the product, then there isn't any reason for them to either know what they're carrying, nor to charge based on the potential profit of the product.

The example you gave is of someone cutting the smugglers in on a piece of their action, in that situation the smugglers would be smart to ask for expenses on top of a negotiated 20-40% cut.

Normally though, if you're contracting smugglers to run your product, it's none of their business what your profit off its sale will be, so you pay the smugglers for their expenses, plus a risk premium.

Expenses are equal to salaries, fuel, wear and tear, docking fees, etc., plus opportunity cost.
Mind the opportunity cost, if a shipper can be carrying rebar or cattle in its hold, with the expectation of making 500k profit on the run, then replacing that rebar or cattle in the hold with other product has an additional 500k opportunity cost.

[Jinumon]

Originally Posted by Ze'Manel Cunha

If the smuggler isn't involved in the production and sale of the product, then there isn't any reason for them to either know what they're carrying, nor to charge based on the potential profit of the product.

I don't know. There are certainly times when the smugglers aren't aware of what their smuggling, but there are also plenty of times where they ask because they want to know exactly how much trouble their likely to run into. Usually if it's a "no questions asked" kind of job, theirs an additional fee for the smuggler's cooperation. But I would say that a fair portion, even a majority of the time, they do know what they're hauling.

Originally Posted by Varyon

Sounds pretty good, although 20% as an initial offer seems a little high.

Also, after thinking about it, I figured I agree. I think the standard rate should be about 15%, adjusted by 1% x Margin of Victory/Failure. If you were to role-play it, they'd probably make an initial offer of about 10% (everyone low-balls), and after a good dickering section you'd end up with the 15 +/- Margin amount. I mean, you'd have to screw up pretty bad (failure by 5+) to actually cause them to lower their original offer (via gratuitous insult or idiocy). The final result would be somewhere between 5-25% of the profit margin.