Minimum TL for a self-sufficient Vault City or equivalent bunker?

[ajardoor]

It should be noted that the Fallout universe has anarchronistic super-science, like ray guns, super computers that use vacuum tubes and no micro-processors and drugs that work instantly and with potent effects.

Yeah, the exact tech level is probably TL6+2^, with some lower TL societies here and there.

[David Johnston2]

Originally Posted by ajardoor

It should be noted that the Fallout universe has anarchronistic super-science, like ray guns, super computers that use vacuum tubes and no micro-processors and drugs that work instantly and with potent effects.

Yeah, the exact tech level is probably TL6+2^, with some lower TL societies here and there.

Between the power armour, the combat drugs, the automobile engines that don't require gasoline, the plasma weapon and so forth Fallout is quite a bit higher than that, but this isn't relevant since the OP didn't ask for for an adaptation of Fallout.

[fredtheobviouspseudonym]

1.) Why the long term seal-up?

I'd favor biological warfare gone very wrong indeed. See Gruinard Island & the anthrax experiments there in 1942. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gruinard_Island

Years ago, I read an account of a 1973 exchange between military writer (and then Master Gunner of the Royal Army) Ian Hogg and a British biological warfare researcher. Hogg basically opined that the advent of nuclear weapons had made bio-war pretty tame stuff. The reply?

"We've got stuff that makes the H-bomb look like a wet firecracker."

And that was in 1973 (give or take a couple of years.) What happens when you throw effective recombination DNA engineering into the mix? [Yeah, I know that bio-war research as been outlawed for years. Officially. How often will ALL the governments of the planet obey such a ban?]

". . . after the biological warfare trials had ended, initial efforts to decontaminate the island failed due to the high durability of anthrax spores. For many years, it was judged too hazardous and expensive to decontaminate the island sufficiently to allow public access. As a result, Gruinard Island was quarantined indefinitely. Visits to the island were prohibited, except periodic checks by Porton Down personnel to determine the current level of contamination."

"Starting in 1986 a determined effort was made to decontaminate the island, with 280 tonnes of formaldehyde solution diluted in seawater being sprayed over all 196 hectares of the island and the worst-contaminated topsoil around the dispersal site being removed. A flock of sheep was then placed on the island and remained healthy. On April 24, 1990, after 48 years of quarantine, junior defence minister Michael Neubert visited the island and announced its safety by removing the warning signs." From the Wikipedia article; seems to fit the other stuff I've seen.

So 1942 level anthrax spores were able to contaminate an island for nearly 50 years. How long do you want?

2.) I'd propose that 20 million is a bit large for any realistic bio-ark population. IIRC at one point in prehistory the entire human species was some 2 to 5000 souls, and recovered from that point. Perhaps with modern genetics we could have some tens of thousands at least APPEAR a viable population?

[Daigoro]

I was thinking a massive solar flare could be a good plot device to scare people underground. It would be transient to whatever degree needed, predictable enough to plan for, and would leave the surface mostly intact.

Or you could use zombies.

[Fred Brackin]

Originally Posted by Daigoro

I was thinking a massive solar flare could be a good plot device to scare people underground. It would be transient to whatever degree needed, predictable enough to plan for, and would leave the surface mostly intact.

Or you could use zombies.

Go with the zombies. Far more plausible. No solar flare is going to last 50 days much less 50 years. Unless it bakes the surface with raw heat it's not going to force people undreground either.

The problem with hitting the OP's requirement is the "sealed" situation. Apparently even without filtered air. Nothing but some particularly ghastly bio-weapon situation is going to do that.

[Genesis]

Originally Posted by Fred Brackin

Go with the zombies. Far more plausible. No solar flare is going to last 50 days much less 50 years. Unless it bakes the surface with raw heat it's not going to force people undreground either.

The problem with hitting the OP's requirement is the "sealed" situation. Apparently even without filtered air. Nothing but some particularly ghastly bio-weapon situation is going to do that.

Yeah, but she's said specifically that there's no genetics research in this timeline, and without sophisticated biochemistry the really scary bio-weapons aren't possible.

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by Fred Brackin

The problem with hitting the OP's requirement is the "sealed" situation. Apparently even without filtered air. Nothing but some particularly ghastly bio-weapon situation is going to do that.

There's various grossly toxic non-biologicals possible, though I doubt a society much below late TL 7-early TL 8 can do that much damage.

[robkelk]

Originally Posted by fredtheobviouspseudonym

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv.../25/brier1.htm

Apparently in the late 1950s the US Government planned & built a bunker designed to keep Congress & other people alive during & after a nuclear war.

Wow - that sounds a lot like the Diefenbunker just outside of Ottawa.

(The Diefenbunker has an overflow medical room just outside the infirmary. This room's door doesn't have a handle on the inside. While one could use it as a medical ward, it was intended to be the place where the people who snapped under pressure would be locked up...)

[Daigoro]

Originally Posted by Fred Brackin

Go with the zombies. Far more plausible. No solar flare is going to last 50 days much less 50 years. Unless it bakes the surface with raw heat it's not going to force people undreground either.

So make it the sun enters a phase of increased activity, with CMEs, geomagnetic storms, solar proton events, eventually overwhelming the ionosphere's ability to protect the biosphere, and causing catastrophic levels of radiation to reach the surface.

In any case, it's a plot device and you can fill in the details to suit whatever level of scientific rigour you deem is necessary.

[Fred Brackin]

Originally Posted by Daigoro

So make it the sun enters a phase of increased activity, with CMEs, geomagnetic storms, solar proton events, eventually overwhelming the ionosphere's ability to protect the biosphere, and causing catastrophic levels of radiation to reach the surface.

In any case, it's a plot device and you can fill in the details to suit whatever level of scientific rigour you deem is necessary.

I still say zombies. Mad Science before Bad Science. You can't overwhelm the ionosphere with ionizing radiation. Ionizing radiation creates the ionosphere.

What really protects us from comic and solar high energy radiation is miles and miles of atmosphere. You can disrupt the ozone layer and get too much UV but that won't cause you to go underground and especially not to seal yourself off from the atmosphere.