[Sci-fi] Plausible scenarios for the evacuation of Earth at TL10-11

Seneschal · 08-31-2018, 01:39 PM

Hey everyone. I'm currently in the planning stages of a hard sci-fi campaign for my group. We initially considered Eclipse Phase setting (for the uninitiated - a game of "transhuman conspiracy and horror"; think THS if it really was the way the official rulebook artwork depicts it. Then add a good dollop of murderous machines, mutants, nanoplagues and unfathomable alien entities plotting our extinction), but decided on making our own setting to better fit the themes we wanted to explore - the transformation of culture, media and personal identity in a highly technological world. A facet of EP that we did want to keep is the evacuation of Earth. This gives us several things we're looking for: a crisis that has affected all of civilization (but not made it unrecognizable) in the not-too-distant past, a new environment that humanity has to quickly adapt to, a shake-up of Earth-based geopolitics so that we may tweak existing cultures, social structures and economic systems, and an exploratory vibe, with various factions looking to resettle a derelict Earth.

The important difference is that we don't want apocalyptic dread as the dominant theme in the setting - we'd prefer to play in a "problematic utopia" wrestling with technological and cultural changes. The emphasis on living in space and dealing with the aftermath of the exodus give us an exciting backdrop for even mundane adventures.

I'd like to ask for the hivemind's advice for setting up such a campaign: getting the timeline right, the technological milestones that are needed for it to happen, what the short- and long-term consequences would be, etc. The campaign is meant to take place a couple of decades after the evacuation, but I'm most worried about the events preceding it. I've made a list of factors that could play a role in bringing the setting to the desired starting condition:

1) The Earth has a thriving orbital infrastructure, permanent habitats in space or on the Moon, outposts on other celestial bodies, affordable to-orbit transportation (either a space elevator or some other way to launch stuff) and/or a very good reason to go, work and live in orbit (say, a CME took out our satellite network and a large commercial effort is mounted to repair it, leading to advances in spaceflight and legislation changes to further commercialize space, etc.). So, "THS but not that far out into the Solar system" (I'd prefer to keep fusion power as new tech during the evacuation, mostly because of point #3). This is setup for having somewhere to run to when the planet goes splat. The plausibility of this point by my preferred time of evacuation (around 21XX) seems a bit shaky, and I'm looking for further justifications for it. E.g., I'm not very well informed on the viability of near-Earth asteroid mining or orbital solar panels or other things that could spark interest for spacefaring.

2) Transformative technologies (the wham-bam package of high biotech, mind uploading, AI, neural augmentation and animal uplifting) have been advancing at an accelerated rate, and are relatively mature at the time of the evacuation. This is another important precondition that I'm not entirely confident in; the idea of billions escaping Earth as uploaded minds is quite crucial, but I'm struggling to erase the various economic and cultural hurdles that such technology would face. I basically need it to be widespread, cheap and accepted.

3) The environmental situation is dire, and the most pessimistic projections are coming to pass - islands are disappearing, crops are failing, supercells are pummeling coastal areas, and the repair bills are mounting. Clean fusion power is either new, has scant availability, or isn't the saving grace we've been hoping for. This is meant to set the stage and prompt early interest into the possibility of relocation, terraforming, pantropy and various other B-plans. As of the tentative date of the evacuation, the early 22nd century, this probably isn't an imminent cataclysmic threat, but it will aggravate other things, namely...

4) The Yellowstone supervolcano erupts, or a meteor smacks us, or some other global disaster that comes with a decade or so of prior warning. This would be the big tipping point that starts a cascade of environmental collapse that the planet takes decades to recover from. There's actually a good thread already (concerning an Infinite Worlds parallel, if I'm not mistaken) on the Yellowstone eruption, and I've done some research on my own, but it all seems to indicate that, by itself, this wouldn't render the planet uninhabitable; it would certainly change the world, but someone in India might just be thankful for the extra shade, and feel no pressure to abandon ship. Whatever disaster I end up going with has to be something global, yet not so destructive as to leave nothing worth salvaging after a while, and the ecosystem's recovery needs to occur quick enough that the campaign's protagonists (25 years after the evacuation) may witness the start of a full-on resettling effort.

________________________

In conclusion, given all of the above, what would a planetary evacuation look like? How many do we need to transport? How long would it take? (Or, rather, how much of a warning do we give everyone?) How many can be physically lifted into orbit, and how many have to be sent as data? Realistically, how many don't make the trip? What numbers remain on Earth and what happens to them? What happens to nation-states when they consist of millions of citizen in digital limbo, waiting for better times? Is it realistic for us to grapple with such an undertaking by 2100, or is it better to punt it off another century in the future?

I'd like to add that, thematically, we're aiming to make it feel like a migration, not a psyche-shattering tragedy. It's "humanity, bruised but not broken, at the cusp of an era, reshaped by its new habitat", not "humanity bawls with a razor in hand as untold billions are dismembered by rampant nanomachines." By the current makeup of the party (journalists, socialites, etc.) it's going to be a campaign heavy on investigation and intrigue, so what I'm asking for is, "Can we do this without the tone going dark as ****?"

08-31-2018, 01:39 PM	#1
Seneschal Join Date: Jul 2009	[Sci-fi] Plausible scenarios for the evacuation of Earth at TL10-11 Hey everyone. I'm currently in the planning stages of a hard sci-fi campaign for my group. We initially considered Eclipse Phase setting (for the uninitiated - a game of "transhuman conspiracy and horror"; think THS if it really was the way the official rulebook artwork depicts it. Then add a good dollop of murderous machines, mutants, nanoplagues and unfathomable alien entities plotting our extinction), but decided on making our own setting to better fit the themes we wanted to explore - the transformation of culture, media and personal identity in a highly technological world. A facet of EP that we did want to keep is the evacuation of Earth. This gives us several things we're looking for: a crisis that has affected all of civilization (but not made it unrecognizable) in the not-too-distant past, a new environment that humanity has to quickly adapt to, a shake-up of Earth-based geopolitics so that we may tweak existing cultures, social structures and economic systems, and an exploratory vibe, with various factions looking to resettle a derelict Earth. The important difference is that we don't want apocalyptic dread as the dominant theme in the setting - we'd prefer to play in a "problematic utopia" wrestling with technological and cultural changes. The emphasis on living in space and dealing with the aftermath of the exodus give us an exciting backdrop for even mundane adventures. I'd like to ask for the hivemind's advice for setting up such a campaign: getting the timeline right, the technological milestones that are needed for it to happen, what the short- and long-term consequences would be, etc. The campaign is meant to take place a couple of decades after the evacuation, but I'm most worried about the events preceding it. I've made a list of factors that could play a role in bringing the setting to the desired starting condition: 1) The Earth has a thriving orbital infrastructure, permanent habitats in space or on the Moon, outposts on other celestial bodies, affordable to-orbit transportation (either a space elevator or some other way to launch stuff) and/or a very good reason to go, work and live in orbit (say, a CME took out our satellite network and a large commercial effort is mounted to repair it, leading to advances in spaceflight and legislation changes to further commercialize space, etc.). So, "THS but not that far out into the Solar system" (I'd prefer to keep fusion power as new tech during the evacuation, mostly because of point #3). This is setup for having somewhere to run to when the planet goes splat. The plausibility of this point by my preferred time of evacuation (around 21XX) seems a bit shaky, and I'm looking for further justifications for it. E.g., I'm not very well informed on the viability of near-Earth asteroid mining or orbital solar panels or other things that could spark interest for spacefaring. 2) Transformative technologies (the wham-bam package of high biotech, mind uploading, AI, neural augmentation and animal uplifting) have been advancing at an accelerated rate, and are relatively mature at the time of the evacuation. This is another important precondition that I'm not entirely confident in; the idea of billions escaping Earth as uploaded minds is quite crucial, but I'm struggling to erase the various economic and cultural hurdles that such technology would face. I basically need it to be widespread, cheap and accepted. 3) The environmental situation is dire, and the most pessimistic projections are coming to pass - islands are disappearing, crops are failing, supercells are pummeling coastal areas, and the repair bills are mounting. Clean fusion power is either new, has scant availability, or isn't the saving grace we've been hoping for. This is meant to set the stage and prompt early interest into the possibility of relocation, terraforming, pantropy and various other B-plans. As of the tentative date of the evacuation, the early 22nd century, this probably isn't an imminent cataclysmic threat, but it will aggravate other things, namely... 4) The Yellowstone supervolcano erupts, or a meteor smacks us, or some other global disaster that comes with a decade or so of prior warning. This would be the big tipping point that starts a cascade of environmental collapse that the planet takes decades to recover from. There's actually a good thread already (concerning an Infinite Worlds parallel, if I'm not mistaken) on the Yellowstone eruption, and I've done some research on my own, but it all seems to indicate that, by itself, this wouldn't render the planet uninhabitable; it would certainly change the world, but someone in India might just be thankful for the extra shade, and feel no pressure to abandon ship. Whatever disaster I end up going with has to be something global, yet not so destructive as to leave nothing worth salvaging after a while, and the ecosystem's recovery needs to occur quick enough that the campaign's protagonists (25 years after the evacuation) may witness the start of a full-on resettling effort. ________________________ In conclusion, given all of the above, what would a planetary evacuation look like? How many do we need to transport? How long would it take? (Or, rather, how much of a warning do we give everyone?) How many can be physically lifted into orbit, and how many have to be sent as data? Realistically, how many don't make the trip? What numbers remain on Earth and what happens to them? What happens to nation-states when they consist of millions of citizen in digital limbo, waiting for better times? Is it realistic for us to grapple with such an undertaking by 2100, or is it better to punt it off another century in the future? I'd like to add that, thematically, we're aiming to make it feel like a migration, not a psyche-shattering tragedy. It's "humanity, bruised but not broken, at the cusp of an era, reshaped by its new habitat", not "humanity bawls with a razor in hand as untold billions are dismembered by rampant nanomachines." By the current makeup of the party (journalists, socialites, etc.) it's going to be a campaign heavy on investigation and intrigue, so what I'm asking for is, "Can we do this without the tone going dark as ****?"