International Relations and Implications of US Supersoldier Experiments in 2017

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by ericthered

You might want to look at turkey. They're technically US allies, but there is a cultural distance and a clear independence. They don't have the close ties that will get you extradited in other allies, and their socio-geographical position makes the US feel that they NEED turkey.

Turkey has a lot of military problems on their border that could benefit from non-traditional military force, and a historical aminosty with Russia, of all people, so they benefit from such an arrangement.

The Moral issues are reduced in turkey as well: they've been democratic since 1920: one of the oldest democracies on earth. You've got a sticky factional web to navigate, but that's not terrible. Its foreign, but its not the home of a tin pot dictator or dedicated US foe.

The thing lacking is how Turkey would find out about the program. Ortiz might have to approach them himself. But its a really good fit, so its worth considering.

That's a really interesting idea.

On the other hand, wouldn't the events of last summer have made quite a bit of difference to the analysis of risk there?

To outsiders, at least, it seems that Turkey's traditional constitutional form of government might be changing for good. Erdogan seems to be gathering much more power to the presidency than any previous Turkish ruler since Kemal and for an outsider, it is really difficult to estimate what the Army, Turkey's traditional force for safeguarding the constitutional framework, is going to be able or willing to do about it.

Not to mention that there seem to be popular political factions there that are much more terrifying than strongman authoritarianism or military coups. And Col. Ortiz would have serious concerns about the Kurds, whose right to self-determination he supports.

That's not to say Turkey couldn't work, of course. But Ortiz would need to know the people and politics exceptionally well, in order to have a clear grasp of the risks involved and be able to trust any assurences he is given.

[starslayer]

Originally Posted by evileeyore

That's not as easy as you think it is. It requires 5 things:

1 - For the computers to have both microphones and speakers. Most computers do not have built in microphones (laptops yes, but not desktops).
2 - For the speakers to be capable of transmitting in the utlra frequency range, most low end speakers will not do this, meaning most "lowest bidder supplied" computers will not do this. Likewise the microphones have to to capable of picking up that frequency, see the note about speakers.
3 - At least one darknet machine has to be physically infected, the Malware has to be loaded onto the machine in some fashion. Now, this is a "one and done" problem, so not the hardest part of all this by any stretch.
4 - The environment has to be relatively free of acoustical obstructions (noise, sound dampening material, etc). Also this process fails when the nets (dark and inter) are isolated from one another by distances greater than 60 feet.
5 - This process would have had to existed 10-15 years ago (also not the hardest part of this whole scheme).

There are literally dozens of ways to cross air-gap, that was just the first result I got. It is theorized that you can actually pick up what's going on on a distant computer by monitoring power fluctuation on the grid (certain operations take more power than others, and this can be detected- I am personally dubious of this claim, but there are people insisting it is possible).

I won't say its EASY to cross air gap, but its not an unsolved problem. Further, unless this setting differs SIGNIFICANTLY from our reality, you can still rely on dumb users; once again the DIRECTOR of the FBI has been hacked three times, that the US admits to, by simple malware. That's three different directors, at three different points in time, and its not like those directors just popped into existence, they were agents first working there way up, touching all kinds of networks, and likely with the same mindset for security the whole time.

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by starslayer

Further, unless this setting differs SIGNIFICANTLY from our reality, you can still rely on dumb users; once again the DIRECTOR of the FBI has been hacked three times, that the US admits to, by simple malware. That's three different directors, at three different points in time, and its not like those directors just popped into existence, they were agents first working there way up, touching all kinds of networks, and likely with the same mindset for security the whole time.

Director of the FBI, like other senior executives of government agencies, is a political appointment. A lot of FBI directors have been lawyers who have zero training or experience as cops or intelligence officers. Even those who were former Special Agents have been political operators, at home with leaking data to the media in political infighting, but not usually familiar with specialist skill sets like information security, investigative techniques or tradecraft.

In any case, anything on official government servers about Project Jade Serenity is most likely false. The scientists in charge of the experiments were falsifying data as the experiments were going on, for unknown purposes, and the reporting protocols and basic experimental procedures were violated from the start. The cover-up after the fact destroyed more evidence and introduced a lot more false data.

As for Onyx Rain, the supersecret task force that acts as handlers for our characters, and what they are doing in the modern day, as they try to get a handle on Project Jade Serenity, the test subjects and the eventual consequences, we've been assuming that they are either illegal or authorised by a secret Executive Directive to break all usual protocols. They are certainly not giving the FBI any access to their data and we assume that when they have to report to any political appointees, they use lies and cover stories.

No doubt Onyx Rain files plenty of reports on networked government computers. None of those are likely to contain much truth, however, as Onyx Rain probably considera any publication of what their real work is about to be the end of any possibility to control the situation. And as the fallout might be immense, they will do anything not to risk that.

[TGLS]

Originally Posted by Icelander

To outsiders, at least, it seems that Turkey's traditional constitutional form of government might be changing for good. Erdogan seems to be gathering much more power to the presidency than any previous Turkish ruler since Kemal and for an outsider, it is really difficult to estimate what the Army, Turkey's traditional force for safeguarding the constitutional framework, is going to be able or willing to do about.

Not to mention that there seem to be popular political factions there that are much more terrifying than strongman authoritarianism or military coups. And Col. Ortiz would have serious concerns about the Kurds, whose right to self-determination he supports.

Hmm.... Just a thought, but maybe Ortiz makes a deal with Anti-Erdogan members of the military to aid in deposing Erdogan and restore Turkey to democracy (i.e. pattern of Turkey for many years). An effective small unit like Ortiz's could make a serious difference in a military coup, and it sounds like restoring democracy would be something Ortiz would like...

[ericthered]

Originally Posted by Icelander

That's a really interesting idea.

On the other hand, wouldn't the events of last summer have made quite a bit of difference to the analysis of risk there?

To outsiders, at least, it seems that Turkey's traditional constitutional form of government might be changing for good. Erdogan seems to be gathering much more power to the presidency than any previous Turkish ruler since Kemal and for an outsider, it is really difficult to estimate what the Army, Turkey's traditional force for safeguarding the constitutional framework, is going to be able or willing to do about.

Not to mention that there seem to be popular political factions there that are much more terrifying than strongman authoritarianism or military coups. And Col. Ortiz would have serious concerns about the Kurds, whose right to self-determination he supports.

That's not to say Turkey couldn't work, of course. But Ortiz would need to know the people and politics exceptionally well, in order to have a clear grasp of the risks involved and be able to trust any assurences he is given.

Its not a cut and dry all positive, no. But its the kind of choice a commander makes after a long time of staring at bad options. Almost everywhere else you're either helping the wrong people or the folks looking for you can act with impunity.

Turkey is changing, but the changes aren't finished yet. And they fugitives may end up giving power to the factions they prefer. Turkey could be used as a temporary safe-haven before disappearing somewhere else after doing more research, negotiations, and footprint hiding.

But yes, Turkey has the potential to be scary. I think this is true of any government foreign enough to fit the requirements though.

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by TGLS

Hmm.... Just a thought, but maybe Ortiz makes a deal with Anti-Erdogan members of the military to aid in deposing Erdogan and restore Turkey to democracy (i.e. pattern of Turkey for many years). An effective small unit like Ortiz's could make a serious difference in a military coup, and it sounds like restoring democracy would be something Ortiz would like...

That would certainly be desirable, with the caveat that as player I am of course not privy to Ortiz's ultimate plans and only know his character before any hypothetical changes or delusions.

On the other hand, how would a Special Forces officer who spent most of his time in the 7th SFG (A), which is supposed to operate in Latin America, obtain the necessary contacts and knowledge of local factions to make it practical?

The 7th SFG (A) did multiple tours in Afghanistan, but only a small group was ever sent to Iraq, and then, only for a single tour. At first glance, it seems unlikely that Col. Ortiz would have the kind of practical political education and experience in relation to Turkey as he has for the Latin American countries he's specialised in for the past 19 years.

US Special Forces might exercise with Turkish SMUs, but I doubt that officers from the 7th SFG (A) are involved when the 10th SFG (A) or possibly the 5th SFG (A) do so. Of course, as a Lieutenant Colonel, Ortiz did a staff rotation, but I imagined it was either at US SOCOM South or at JSOC. If the latter, it could have given him some contacts in Turkey, I guess, but would it give him enough inside information to be confident in his knowledge of the inner circles of local factions and the odds any one has of eventual victory?

At least for countries within US SOCOM South, he has more than a decade of personal relationships with senior military figures and access to more-or-less all political data with security or military implications. Ortiz might have the GURPS skills to analyse the situation in Turkey from news reports better than I do, but with Latin American countries, he has Cultural Familiarity and high levels of Area Knowledge, Expert Skill (Political Science; OS: 7th SFG Operational Area) and Geography (Political; OS: 7th SFG Operational Area). Not to mention Allies and Contacts in multiple countries there.

As a player, I'm not privy to Ortiz's post-powers character sheet. However, if we assume that he might have received a boost to things he was already good at, like several characters in the campaign, PCs and NPCs, the odds are pretty good that Ortiz might be the best in the world at commanding special forces up to a regiment in size in direct action, at counter-terrorist strategy, intelligence analysis and training elite special operations personnel. Skill levels of 22+ at all these things are plausible, with Leadership and Tactics 25+ not unlikely. His senior NCOs will have 18+ at their specialties and if he has gotten most of the surviving subjects with him, they'll be the best OD-B in history.

But only Ortiz is likely to be all that accomplished at political maneuvering and he'll only be human-level good at that. And much better at it within the part of the world he's studied all his adult life and was the subject of his PhD.

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by ericthered

Its not a cut and dry all positive, no. But its the kind of choice a commander makes after a long time of staring at bad options. Almost everywhere else you're either helping the wrong people or the folks looking for you can act with impunity.

Turkey is changing, but the changes aren't finished yet. And they fugitives may end up giving power to the factions they prefer. Turkey could be used as a temporary safe-haven before disappearing somewhere else after doing more research, negotiations, and footprint hiding.

But yes, Turkey has the potential to be scary. I think this is true of any government foreign enough to fit the requirements though.

I get that most of Col. Ortiz's possibilities won't be scoring high on any Political Stability Indexes. For that matter, however, no Latin American or Carribbean country currently scores as low as Turkey on the World Bank one. But I'll grant that some of them are almost as scary to an outsider, featuring many factions which might resort to violence for political purposes.

The primary difference that I see, however, is a risk which Col. Ortiz is educated, trained and experienced at evaluating vs. a risk where he does not have access to enough information to estimate the odds or manage the risks.

As the J2 at US SOCOM South, Col. Ortiz has received regular briefings on the political stability and factions within Latin American and Caribbean countries. He meets regularly with generals and high-ranking people from military intelligence in many of these countries. As a former commander of an ODA and then XO and the commander of a battalion of the 7th SFG (A), Ortiz has done training rotations with all American allies in the region and that will often have included talking with people from there about security threats from their neighbours or hostile factions within their own countries. Ortiz will also have performed security analysis of many countries within the region regarded as potentially hostile to US interests.

Aside from that, he has a Masters degree in Latin American Studies with a Security Studies focus and a PhD in International Relations with a Latin American and Caribbean Focus. He also has a Masters degree in Strategic Studies, where his thesis focused on US policy in Latin America and the Caribbean.*

Col. Ortiz will probably be fairly confident in his ability to evaluate the risks and rewards of each country within his area of specialisation. I am not sure if there would be any way for him to gather enough reliable information about countries outside that region for him to feel confident in his analysis of the political and security situation there.

How good is the open-source data on Turkish politics and security? Good enough for someone very good at Intelligence Analysis to feel comfortable that he can identify key factions, the personalities of their leaders, their goals and their relative power from it?

Or if not open-source, how good are those classified documents that a Special Forces officer that is not part of a command with an area of responsibility which includes Europe, Turkey or any point in the Middle East would have need-to-know about and access to?

I doubt that the staff of 7th SFG (A) or of US SOCOM South get all the intelligence about Turkey's internal politics that the State Department, CIA, DIA, NSA and other members of the US intelligence community churn out. Would Col. Ortiz have been able to access enough data for him to be able to operate in Turkey with the same confidence as he could in such countries as Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago and many others within SOCSOUTH (US SOCOM South)?

*His education before he joined the army was in History and Spanish-language Literature. In the unlikely event it would be good for a bonus to Intelligence Analysis, he can chart the economic and political causes of the Latin American Wars of Independence or subject Cervantes and Gabriel García Márquez to critical analysis.

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by tshiggins

I think you need to look at two separate issues, here. Firstly, of course, is a Latin American country that has had a difficult relationship with the United States, and as such has a government not willing to kow-tow to Los Estados Unidos. However, they also need enough of an economy that they can weather some pressure from Uncle Sam.

This is true.

Originally Posted by tshiggins

Secondly, I think you look for a country that has a problem that super soldiers, in particular, might be admirably suited to solve, in a way that more conventional weapons systems are not.

There is also a second possibility. The country might not have an immediate security problem they want to solve with Col. Ortiz and his men, they might have plans for the future, when they've reverse engineered the drugs.

This might include anything from a massive reduction in military budget through the creation of a much smaller, much more capable military of volunteers who receive supersoldier treatments to becoming a regional power through the same means, except without reducing military budgets. Or simply allowing powerful elites access to drugs that keep them young and healthy for a very long time.

The motives could even be humanitarian or economic, i.e. the possibilities inherent in medical technology if they manage to research and understand the biology behind the changes and develop pharmacological advances based on that.

A possible twist would be that Col. Ortiz and his men would be pretty much the most effective nucleus for the elite presidental guard and counter-revolutionary military force that can be imagined. Anyone in a country where that was a concern would benefit greatly from Col. Ortiz deciding to throw in his lot with him.

A dozen or so superpowered senior NCOs with skills in the 18+ (including Teaching for some of them) led by a superpowered Colonel of US Special Forces with skills at 22+ are pretty much what you'd need to build a coup-proof government... or to lead a military coup.

Col. Ortiz might have lost his faith in democracy and decided that an enlightened dictator dedicated to safeguarding human rights was preferable than a democracy where individual rights weren't safe. It would be interesting in that it's hard to argue that nominal democracies where secret intelligence organisations and military units carry out acts that are against the laws of the democracy and not approved by any elected official are morally superior, so while Col. Ortiz's plan would be morally dubious, so would most of the practical alternatives.

Originally Posted by tshiggins

So, Mexico is out for entirely too many reasons, as you already mentioned. They're right next to the U.S. border and they don't need any more headaches with the U.S. government than they already have. The cost-benefit analysis just doesn't work out, for them.

Right. Unfortunately for Col. Ortiz, most of the countries where he has the best contacts and idealogical sympathy with those in power are also those countries who would be most averse to risking their relationship with the United States for anything.

Originally Posted by tshiggins

The Caribbean nations are all pretty friendly to either the United States, Britain, or European nations who are our allies -- except Cuba, which is its own thing. Cuba, as a general rule, isn't a huge transportation hub for drug trafficking to the U.S., and I'm not sure your Col. Ortiz would ever agree to work for the Castros, in any event.

(Wild-ass idea: would Col. Ortiz be the kinda guy who might think he could make himself indispensable to the Cubans, learn everything he could about how they operate, and then take over the place in a violent coup? I'd call that highly unlikely, since the Cubans, generally, like their country reasonably well, but as a plot it's pretty killer, even if it turns out that Ortiz is deluded.)

I think that Cuba would be a really hard sell, but the adventuring possibiliies are very interesting. It would also allow for his motives to be perceived as deluded by our characters, with us possibly changing our minds if he reveals his ultimate plan and it seems likely to work and have positive effects in the end.

Like turning Cuba into a liberal refuge for supers, if Ortiz can demonstrate to the PCs that there are more people who have developed powers and that they are all at risk from governments and corporations that wish to study them or use them.

Originally Posted by tshiggins

Anyway, that leaves Colombia, Peru and Bolivia as primary candidates.

I find all three interesting.

Originally Posted by tshiggins

The relations between the U.S. and Peru have been intermittently problematic, and the most recent low point occurred in 2000, following the tainted election of Alberto Fujumori in 2000. However, they've improved, since then and now the two countries work cooperatively on drug interdiction and economic development.

Peru is an interesting idea. They receive about $100 million a year from the US, but could probably survive without it. Of course, a really poor relationship with the US would probably have an economic impact that was far bigger.

In any case, they would have to see a benefit worth far more than a $100 milion per year in order to consider it. Potentially, managing to reverse-engineer the cause of the changes in the test subjects of Project Jade Serenity would be worth many billions, eventually. In the short term, however, there is no guarantee of any benefit.

I guess it depends on their long-term strategic goals and the time preference of whoever makes the decision.

Originally Posted by tshiggins

Colombia remains problematic, not only because of the drug cartels, but also because so many leftist radical insurgents fund their revolutions with cocaine. Significant progress was made as the government negotiated an accord with the FARC guerillas, but a bit more than half the voters refused to support the peace treaty. However, after re-negotiation, a peace deal was struck and the FARC fighters began to disarm, a couple of months ago.

There are other insurgent groups in Colombia, but FARC were the biggest deal.

As noted earlier, as a player, I love the idea of Colombia. I know the GM will be glad if it is in a country where he has some frame of reference and though it isn't much, two seasons of Narcos last week is a hell of a lot more than we know about such countries as Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, El Salvador, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras or Panama.

My concern is that Colombia is the biggest single recipient of US aid (mostly military and security) in the region and the two countries have effectively had a strategic partnership for more than a generation. Would Colombia be willing to risk that, even if the potential rewards were huge?

Originally Posted by tshiggins

As for Bolivia, that may offer some potential. The country was long divided between a majority indigenous population and a minority criollo (Spanish descendants) group which controlled most of the economy. That started to change in the late 20th Century, following decades of violent conflict.

In 2005, socialist Evo Morales won election as president with an absolute majority of the votes in Bolivia -- which was unprecedented -- and his Movement for Socialism won a two-third majority in the both houses of the Bolivian National Congress. He immediately raised taxes on Bolivian petroleum companies (Bolivia is very rich in mineral wealth, of all sorts) and began to focus on social spending programs primarily geared toward helping the indigenous majority.

[...]

Any overt move by the United States to depose Morales would likely blow up in their faces, because he is that popular with the majority of Bolivians. However, anyone who owns a mine or an oil field in Bolivia has spent many sleepless nights since his election, worrying that he might do to Bolivia what Hugo Chavez did to Venezuela (even though Morales' policies are far more moderate than his rhetoric).

Bolivia seems really promising. They don't receive any US aid, for idealogical reasons, so they have little to lose by granting asylum. And if the Powers that Be within the security apparatus of Bolivia can verify Col. Ortiz's claims and come to trust him, he has value in that he is a world-class expert in any methods they use might use against Morales' government if any future US government decides that regime change is in order. Or anyone else, for that matter.

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by evileeyore

Mostly in that it's a strong economy and good enough industrial/medical base to suit whatever needs he may have (founding a school, establishing a mercenary company, living the good life, etc), and more than corrupt enough to hide in with worrying too much about extradition (which is still a worry, but only if he pisses of the local policia or criminals too much).

Whatever Ortiz wants to do, I doubt he can do it without the help of someone with nation state levels of resources and institutional expertise in intelligence and security. Him and his men don't have millions of dollars in cash, they all just live on their military salaries. They have information and the scientific marvels that they carry within their bodies to sell, but they don't have the money to pay bribes themselves.

Technically, I suppose they could turn to a major transnational criminal organisation, but I think Ortiz would consider that less desirable than a government. Of course, using the resources of the Sinaloa cartel in Mexico to stay safe from US pursuit is more-or-less what Raul Vargas has done and it is plausible that when Ortiz and Vargas met, Vargas attempted to recruit Ortiz and his men to his criminal organisation. But I doubt very much that Ortiz was tempted, even though some of his men might have been.

Originally Posted by evileeyore

Also Brazil is big enough that the US won't just send in operatives under the cover of darkness to "deal with him" if they unofficially learn he is there.

Yep. This is a concern for any smaller polity. If they don't have the intelligence and security apparatus that more powerful countries have, it may be possible for the US to organise an extraordinary rendition or targeted assassination or any other power that wants a test subject of their own to try to reverse engineer the supersoldier drugs to just go in and grab one (or more).

This is also why Col. Ortiz will probably be reluctant to accept the aid of a transnational corporation or any NGO, even if they have enough influence in some country to be able to arrange for Ortiz and his men to enter without incident.

I mean, there are probably several places in the Caribbean where a billionaire who wants to be young forever could set up a research facility to try to isolate that aspect of the Project Jade Serenity effects, but without the protection of national sovereignity and an effective security apparatus, how would such a billionaire protect them from anyone else who'd want to seize them?

[Icelander]

Originally Posted by starslayer

That would be a HUGELY significant deviation from our modern world. Nothing is kept 'off computers', and it would be basically impossible to study the effect using above TL 6 technology and techniques (Or create a VERY significantly 'interesting' blip as you start resurrecting the TL7 tech that has been completely supplanted by superior TL8 stuff.

In my experience, when bureaucrats do things that they know their bosses would not approve of or which might be technically illegal, they will write untrue reports with no mention of their illegal activity.

Even cops, prosecutors or bureaucrats who aren't regarded as actually corrupt will write reports that aren't technically true, because the full and complete truth would damage their organisation in some way, whether by publication or because a defence attorney could use it during trial.

What people write in notebooks during their investigations will not be the same things that they write in the offical reports that are filed in government computers. And that's even here in Iceland, where not many things are classified and the shenanigans our authorities get up to are fairly limited.

Originally Posted by starslayer

I mean, if this is an issue of 'oh god we accidentally made supermen, lets pretend this never happened' that's one thing,

It was a case of "Oh, God, there were so many laws violated in these experiments, there were security breaches that led to two military prisoners escaping custody and three murders and due to the falsified records, there aren't even any usable results... let us pretend that this never happened and do our best to ensure that the media never learn about the full extent of the screw-ups involved, even if that means allowing several senior people to resign rather than prosecuting them and allowing others, who are guilty of criminal neglect at the very least, to continue their careers".

Originally Posted by starslayer

but I can't see any situation where running at least one of the participants head to toe through an FMRI is not something like #1 on the list, immediately followed by a full gene sequencing, a prion sequencing (is the secret of superpowers in protine folds instead of genes?), full spectrographic bloodwork, whole body high contrast x-rays, microwave backscatter imaging.

Sure. And Onyx Rain, working in the modern day to investigate Project Jade Serenity, find the former test subjects and find out what is happening, has access to any of these that the DHS Office of Health Affairs - The Health Threats Resiliance Division and the Chemical and Biological Defense Division of the DHS Science and Technology Directorate.

Originally Posted by starslayer

All of these peices of equipment are useless without the computers to analyze them, and many of those computers are networked, some of them HAVE to be networked (gene sequencers rely on connecting to massive databases in order to work). If you are buying an offline version of one, your generating significant 'blips' of interest to an intelligence analyst.

You don't think that a qualified technician could turn off the network connection? And in the cases where it was absolutely necessary to send evidence for analysis elsewhere, give it a fake ID number or connect it to another investigation? Or an exercise, as that's most of what these disaster preparation agencies do, anyway, so I doubt many people would be surprised if they decided to run an exercise involving an unknown infection which might alter DNA structure, just to allow them to use all sorts of toys.

In any case, I'm pretty sure that Homeland Security already has computers which can analyze all sorts of things without being connected to the Internet. And it has been established in play that Onyx Rain has a lot of access to DHS computer servers, though they don't seem to have the same access to DoJ computers. They seem to view the FBI as either rivals or enemies, as they try to keep all evidence away from them.

Originally Posted by starslayer

Further compounding things is that no one produces these high end pieces of equipment in america- they are a mixture of german/japanese/israli components, build from chinese parts, assembled in germany, japan, france, or america, and they are all private industries- which means at some point in time money needs to be transfered from an american government organization to one of the producers, digitally, over open networks.

We'll keep it in mind if they need to buy new ones, but I'm pretty sure that it wouldn't raise any eyebrows if HSARPA or the RD&I of the Science and Technology Directorate of the DHS bought stuff like this on a regular basis.