Alternate History Idea - Hitler dies in early 1936 - then what?

[Michele]

Originally Posted by Rasputin

Since the political offices were jokes by this point (especially running Prussia, since the German states were only on paper by then and the Nazi Gau structure took their spot), it only shows how much he liked decorations and titles. The relevant ones are running the Luftwaffe and running the economy.

The political offices were devoid of real power, you are right there. I don't think, however, that they would not consume any time if taken seriously as figure-head positions: you might still get something in your weekly agenda as Minister President of Prussia, even if they are all essentially irrelevant events.
Furthermore, there is the thing I mentioned about recognizability. A photo as the President of the Reichstag on the front pages still is a photo on the front pages.
Also, I'd point out that running the Luftwaffe is part of, but not the same as, running the Reich Air Ministry; those alone, in a sane system, would be two posts for two persons.

[ehrbar]

Originally Posted by Rasputin

Since the political offices were jokes by this point

In any Nazi infighting, they're worthless. In dealing with the counterrevolutionary leadership of the German Army, thinking in terms of "maintain stability" instead of "seize power", they're probably legitimacy enough to prevent any outright efforts to detain him.

So, who else, with guns, are in Berlin in early 1936?

The Luftwaffe, which answers to Göring.
The SS, under Himmler.
The Gestapo, under Himmler.
The local Berlin police, used to taking orders from Gauleiter Joseph Goebbels.

Those are the players on day one After Hitler. If Göring manages to act with alacrity, he's in the Reichstag, surrounded by airmen, and using his official position as President of that body to call it into session to make himself Chancellor before the Army has any idea what it's going to do.

It's the subsequent politics that are an uncertain balancing act, but now Göring is the incumbent, and trying to remove him is "attacking stability"; the Army is now one of Göring's backers.

[Michele]

Originally Posted by ehrbar

In any Nazi infighting, they're worthless. In dealing with the counterrevolutionary leadership of the German Army, thinking in terms of "maintain stability" instead of "seize power", they're probably legitimacy enough to prevent any outright efforts to detain him.

So, who else, with guns, are in Berlin in early 1936?

The Luftwaffe, which answers to Göring.
The SS, under Himmler.
The Gestapo, under Himmler.
The local Berlin police, used to taking orders from Gauleiter Joseph Goebbels.

I agree with the above. I'd just like to underscore, for the general readership, that at this time the SS were not an army on their own as they'd become later (as the Waffen-SS). The truly military part is puny. The rest are numerous, but they are either concentration-camp guards or civilians in uniform with a handgun. If the Heer sides with Goering, there's no real contest.
There are the SA still around, too. But they have been downsized and weakened, under Lutze, whom many consider a weak leader. He'd probably go along with whomever seemed the best bet; and in any case the chances of the SA siding with the SS seem abysmal.

[gruundehn]

Hitler wrote a will naming Goring as his successor but I cannot remember when he wrote it - I think it was early in the regime but I cannot remember and the book that would have that information is not available.

[Rasputin]

Originally Posted by gruundehn

Hitler wrote a will naming Goring as his successor but I cannot remember when he wrote it - I think it was early in the regime but I cannot remember and the book that would have that information is not available.

We know that in 1945, Göring was clearly Hitler's successor, which is why Göring wrote his telegram, based on that premise. Wikipedia has Hitler formally naming Göring as his successor in 1941, with it being obvious since 1940 (which is when Hess, the only other candidate, went nuts and flew to Scotland—wouldn't you like to have that rant up on YouTube?), and more or less likely since 1933.

[The Colonel]

Originally Posted by Rasputin

We know that in 1945, Göring was clearly Hitler's successor, which is why Göring wrote his telegram, based on that premise. Wikipedia has Hitler formally naming Göring as his successor in 1941, with it being obvious since 1940 (which is when Hess, the only other candidate, went nuts and flew to Scotland—wouldn't you like to have that rant up on YouTube?), and more or less likely since 1933.

So where does that leave Hess in this alt-timeline then?

[Kilmore]

Who killed Hitler and what did they expect to happen?

[Rasputin]

Originally Posted by The Colonel

So where does that leave Hess in this alt-timeline then?

I presume sidelined, which is what happened in real life, as Bormann rose. He didn't exact have a lot of duties to spread out when he took his Scottish vacation five years later.

[johndallman]

Originally Posted by The Colonel

So where does that leave Hess in this alt-timeline then?

Hess' position as deputy to Hitler seems to have been as the kind of deputy who is trusted to act just as his master would want, rather than being an alternative leader. He would not have had much backing in a competition to become leader if Hitler was dead.

[BraselC5048]

Originally Posted by ehrbar

In any Nazi infighting, they're worthless. In dealing with the counterrevolutionary leadership of the German Army, thinking in terms of "maintain stability" instead of "seize power", they're probably legitimacy enough to prevent any outright efforts to detain him.

So, who else, with guns, are in Berlin in early 1936?

The Luftwaffe, which answers to Göring.
The SS, under Himmler.
The Gestapo, under Himmler.
The local Berlin police, used to taking orders from Gauleiter Joseph Goebbels.

Those are the players on day one After Hitler. If Göring manages to act with alacrity, he's in the Reichstag, surrounded by airmen, and using his official position as President of that body to call it into session to make himself Chancellor before the Army has any idea what it's going to do.

It's the subsequent politics that are an uncertain balancing act, but now Göring is the incumbent, and trying to remove him is "attacking stability"; the Army is now one of Göring's backers.

And the Heer. Who actually has the combat troops and answer only to the German General Staff, who actually took effective power during WW1, and who flatly told the German Republic in 1919 that Bolshevik reforms were not allowed. (They didn't want it anyway.)

Most likely the General Staff throws it's support behind Goering, with variable levels of actual power given to him.

There was still supporters of the monarchy after WWII. If the General Staff wants the Kaiser (and the other monarchies, if they want) back as figureheads, with Goering as chancellor holding the real power, Goering will object, but it's amazing what the power the guys with lots of guys with the guns can wield if they want to, and he'll likely have no choice but to go along with it. The last Kaiser is still alive, by the way, although you might want a different candidate. Not as likely. When it comes to the monarchy being the real power, that ship had sailed from Europe two decades earlier.

Did Goering share Hitler's "living space" objectives? If not, then Poland's off the hook. The Heer wants to "right the wrongs done the their fathers in 1919," make Germany a major world power, and ultimately win a war with Britain and France. Goering's objectives will be slightly different, likely, then than Heer's, and it's a good question as to who would actually hold the real power. Likely not as focused on eastern expansion, support for recovering Germany's 1914 borders, (with/without what's now Poland), including in the Balkans, and a refight in the west. Britain and France might not even oppose putting all German-speakers in Germany, it's not actually that bad of a thing, and certainly won't go to war over it.

The Navy was told to be ready for war in 1945; the British simply have no choice but to embark on a massive battleship building program, they simply have to have naval superiority in the North Sea at all costs, as that's what the security of their country ultimately depends on.

War will break out, eventually. Possibly Germany invades some countries out of order. Apparently the Nazi's had some weird Norse fascination, and I changed geography to put a mysterious country high in the (bigger than in real life) mountains between Norway and Sweden that's closed to outsiders for another reason, and they might well try to invade that (and Norway in the process). It won't go well.

The Soviets might decide to do a landgrab of the Baltic States (nobody is willing to fight over that), and invade and are humiliated in Finland right about on schedule. If anything, this drives a wedge between the British/French and the Soviets. When war finally does break out, with Stalin's objective being the spread of communism, he might well invade Poland himself, potentially with little intention of stopping at the German border.

What the heck happens then is anybody's guess. The Germans can stop them if they're not busy in France, Poland just wants its country back when it's all over, and neither Britain nor France want the Soviets to beat Germany. Would the Germans stop an attempt to land British troops at Poland in Danzig? They don't control the entrance to the Baltic anyway, but they might consider it a good thing. Three way wars - never seem to happen historically.


Back to the original starting point, basically a way to keep war from breaking out for another decade, while letting technology and society be exactly what I want it to be in the meantime. Although it's not quite the same, somehow, Nazi's just have to have Hitler, otherwise it just doesn't feel right. Goering and Stalin just doesn't have the same feel as Hitler and Stalin.