[World Building] A Future History of Space Force

[RyanW]

Originally Posted by thrash

Apologies for being a bit pedantic, that's not what happened. If anything, USSF was spun off from the US Air Force.

US Space Command (SPACECOM) still exists as a multi-service combatant command under DOD, like EUCOM or SOUTHCOM. It has service component commands from most of the armed forces (NAVSPACECOM, ARSPACE, etc.)

US Space Force (USSF) is a separate uniformed service under the Department of the Air Force, much like US Marine Corps under the Department of the Navy.

Technically, USSF provides forces and capabilities to SPACECOM, which is responsible for executing the DOD mission in space. There are things that USSF does that SPACECOM doesn't, however, and vice versa.

So you have chosen pedantry?

There have been three iterations of US Space Command:

• SPACECOM (1982-1985) was an Air Force command.
• SPACECOM (1985-2002) was a joint command which included the previous SPACECOM, renamed AFSPACECOM.
• USSPACECOM (2019-present) is a joint command that includes the former AFSPACECOM, renamed SpOC and now a primary component of the USSF.

NAVSPACECOM was disbanded in 2002 (along with the second SPACECOM) and what portions of its mission didn't go to AFSPACECOM went to the newly activated NETWARCOM, which is now U.S. Fleet Cyber Command (and part of USSPACECOM).
ARSPACE became US SSDC in 1992 and US SMDC in 1997.

[David Johnston2]

Originally Posted by Rupert

My knee-jerk reaction to suggestions that the air forces would run space is to poo-poo it because of this. However, it occurs to me that there's gaming potential and drama to be had in this - if an air force gets to do the space thing, it's just about guaranteed that they'll not listen to advice from the navy (assuming the navy's willing to give it), and that means people having to reinvent traditions and systems to deal with long voyages with no way of avoiding their fellow crew members, and that means drama and conflict - gaming fodder.

It'll be a long time before they can field ships with large crews. I'm thinking the first space warships the "bombers" will have 3 to 5 crew, meaning the flight out to the belt will be incredibly brutal with a few people in confined spaces for months.

[Rupert]

Originally Posted by David Johnston2

It'll be a long time before they can field ships with large crews. I'm thinking the first space warships the bombers "bombers" will have 3 to 5 crew, meaning the flight out to the belt will be incredibly brutal with a few people in confined spaces for months.

That's still something navies have more experience with than air forces, though for such small crews on long voyages you might best look at small ocean sailing boats and the like, and how their crews manage friction.

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by David Johnston2

So the first question is, what year is it when the first manned warships start to arrive in the asteroid belt?

Shortly after the first permanent manned outposts? There's not a lot of point to projecting force to unmanned or transient outposts, just wait for them to return to somewhere important.

[thrash]

Originally Posted by RyanW

NAVSPACECOM was disbanded in 2002 (along with the second SPACECOM) and what portions of its mission didn't go to AFSPACECOM went to the newly activated NETWARCOM, which is now U.S. Fleet Cyber Command (and part of USSPACECOM).

Restablished as "NAVSPACECOM" earlier this year.

ARSPACE became US SSDC in 1992 and US SMDC in 1997.

"ARSPACE" is still technically correct, in the sense of "US Army component of USSPACECOM," regardless of the name of the underlying headquarters.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by dcarson

Can have it act more like the Coast Guard than a navy. So rescue, disasters, smuggling, law enforcement.

Agreed, in the next fifty years I could see a general movement into cislunnar space. Sure, I think voyages of exploration will go to the planets, but navies perform other work. Any realistic Space Force will be more like a coast guard than anything else for decades.

[Astromancer]

The Space Force will mutate as it goes. At first it would be a branch of the Air Force with Coast Guard like functions. Assuming an economic development of cislunnar space it would slowly gain Coast Guard like traits as the Air Force model fades in relevance.

Assuming that the 22nd century would see conditions more or less like those described in the Transhuman Space books, just several decades later. Either a Space Navy would hive off of Space Force, or Space Force would become one.

But we have neither the nor nor the technology for a space Navy yet.

[Donny Brook]

I don't expect the United States will be a serious contender in solar system space by the time it's relevant. The state of affairs after the paradigm shift is unpredictable, so it the field is wide open to imagine what follows.

[tshiggins]

Originally Posted by David Johnston2

(SNIP)

I think we should be generous. The more sides, the more gameplay potential. So, maybe China, the European Union, a somehow revitalized Russia, and some kind of loose space coalition of Japan, South Korea, the Republic of China, Australia and New Zealand?

An increasingly-intense rivalry with the People's Republic of China drives India's space program (ISRO), now, and it's moving along nicely. I don't think that would change much, at this point, even if (when...) China's economy collapses by the middle of this century -- especially since U.S. foreign policy-makers are working really hard to woo India away from Russia.

(Not that Russia is making that particularly difficult, at the current juncture....)

Moreover, the best and brightest have been draining out of Russia for years, due to the near-collapse of that country's higher education system. If Russia just replaces the current despot with a similar one in the next five years or so, a whole bunch of Russian rocket scientists will need to find work -- and I'd bet a fair number wind up in India.

So, to leave India out of this list is a pretty severe oversight, I'd think.

So, given the length of the timeline, maybe a unified post-Communist China; an Asian Tiger coalition that included a unified Korea (North Korea doesn't survive the fall of the PRC) and New Zealand, led by a sometimes-quarrelsome triumvirate of India, Japan and Australia; a Russia-led coalition that includes a fair bit of Persian Gulf funding (declining dependence on fossil fuels means Western powers more willingly pressure Muslim nations on human rights concerns, which drives them away); the ESA; and the United States.

I'd say the odd-man-out in that setting would be the Russian coalition; with unified China stubbornly independent and contrarian; and the Asian Tiger alliance capable of some great innovations when it's not a hot mess.

The U.S. leads the way in space exploration/exploitation with its close partner the ESA, members of which find the Americans' strong support for semi-autonomous private, for-profit, development of space infrastructure somewhat distressing.

[Fred Brackin]

Originally Posted by Donny Brook

I don't expect the United States will be a serious contender in solar system space by the time it's relevant. The state of affairs after the paradigm shift is unpredictable, so it the field is wide open to imagine what follows.

I'm afraid you need to be more specific about _which_ paradigm shift.