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Old 11-22-2011, 03:50 PM   #21
Ulzgoroth
 
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Default Re: Pyramid #3/37: Tech and Toys II

Trachmyr, I'm not seasong, but I think the TL12 numbers were set based on the possible information content of matter and you probably can't increase them without blowing away physics.


EDIT: Also, note that the beginning of the article puts forth that a complexity 13 computer like a TL12 planetary mind would be able to simulate a few copies of the current population of the Earth. In at least some respects that ought to be able to give you a weakly godlike AI.
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Old 11-22-2011, 03:57 PM   #22
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Default Re: Pyramid #3/37: Tech and Toys II

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Originally Posted by lexington View Post
Even leaving aside stat normalization issues that IQ20 AI is going to be vastly "smarter" than a human with IQ20 would be. A middle of the road C12 computer can in the back of its mind run 1 million games of Crysis at max settings (assuming its a game meant for TL9 computers) at once, that's what its dreams and random fleeting thoughts are like. C12 is enough to run 40 million iterations if it really wanted to and that ignores any increased capacity. Skill enhancing programs, language files, and databases are where the real apparent brilliance is going to come from.

A C12 computer with IQ20 will be utterly god-like to a human being. More like the main computer of the Enterprise than an awesome desktop.
I was using the numbers that Seasong gave for AI IQ... and I calculated IQ20 for a Shadow Mind but accidentlly wrote SAI. An IQ20 SAI would require a TL12 Server Farm, TL12 Skyscrapper Computer or a TL11 Living City. The SAI on the Desktop at TL12 would only be IQ10, or IQ15 if Dedicated is allowed. And all this would be for a single Core, so it could only run the AI... you need a second Core to run Crysis in the back of its mind.

Personally I like the 7+(IQx0.2) Formula for Full Human-level AI's, as I always felt the Ultra-Tech Formula required too much complexity to raise IQ... and it didn't seem to gel very well with human brains.
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Old 11-22-2011, 03:59 PM   #23
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Default Re: Pyramid #3/37: Tech and Toys II

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Originally Posted by Trachmyr View Post
Personally I like the 7+(IQx0.2) Formula for Full Human-level AI's, as I always felt the Ultra-Tech Formula required too much complexity to raise IQ... and it didn't seem to gel very well with human brains.
Where is this formula from?
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Old 11-22-2011, 04:30 PM   #24
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Default Re: Pyramid #3/37: Tech and Toys II

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Originally Posted by Ulzgoroth View Post
Trachmyr, I'm not seasong, but I think the TL12 numbers were set based on the possible information content of matter and you probably can't increase them without blowing away physics.


EDIT: Also, note that the beginning of the article puts forth that a complexity 13 computer like a TL12 planetary mind would be able to simulate a few copies of the current population of the Earth. In at least some respects that ought to be able to give you a weakly godlike AI.
I do believe that Seasong's numbers are based of phyical limits, not only that, but his variant system has a 1000x speed improvement per complexity rather than UT's apparent 10x speed improvement. What I'm asking I guess is how much "inefficency" he's allowed for in the TL12 numbers, and is there some wiggle room.

The Options I presented for my own variation are cinematic and probably naievely hopeful, but I don't think they're too extreme. The "Cutting-Edge" becomes obsolete at TL11 before any theoretical limits kick in. The Genius option allows for the Bonus complexity from Dedicated, but on everything... It might be appropriate to give such a system a weight increase as well. Causality Option is Superscience (but it's the one Superscience element I use in my Sci-Fi setting, so I included it.)
Making Smaretcells appear 0.75TL earlier is not a show-stopper either.

Increasing maximum complexity on massive systems by 1 or 2 might be over the top given what this system is modeling, and I'm curious to know HOW over-the-top it is. My primary reason was to allow for more variations in TL11+ systems without Small Computers/Small Workstation Clusters and Server Farms being the only real choice until you get to Living Cities. (Worstations/Small Clusters/Server Farms as written massively outperorm, are lighter and/or are cheaper than Mini/Main/Macro/Mega/Skyscrapper systems.)

As for AI, my feeling is simple. A human Brain is best modeled as a Small Computer (or a Miniature Light-Duty Workstation but it's the same complexity and would cost a lot more), and can theoretically reach IQ20 by RAW. Thus by TL12, a Sentient AI should also be able to reach IQ20 (theoretically) with a system of equivalent mass. Using the UT rules that would require Complexity 13, using Seasong's suggested AI rules, it would only require Complexity 11 (or perhaps as low as 7). Thus using all available options (including Dedicated), at TL12 Small computer needs to be able to hit that mark.

Perhaps a Neural-Net Option which drops complexity by 1, but makes effective complexity 1 higher for any Non-Volitional AI, and 2 Higher for Volitional AI's would be in order?
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Old 11-22-2011, 04:32 PM   #25
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Default Re: Pyramid #3/37: Tech and Toys II

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Where is this formula from?
Seasong (the Writer of the Article in question) presented it in this post earlier in this thread.
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Old 11-22-2011, 08:57 PM   #26
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Default Re: Pyramid #3/37: Tech and Toys II

IQ 20 SAI
Realistically, if a human can be this intelligent, then an artificial intelligence that is also this intelligent will be within ±1 Complexity (+1 if you assume that the AI's "digital mind" advantage requires additional processing; -1 if you assume that human intelligence is inefficient; +0 if neither or both).

The human with IQ 20 is going to have the same brain the rest of us do, at a molecular level. Even if you assume he has twice as many neurons (200 billion instead of 100 billion), on the scale of Complexity, it's a meaningless difference.

If you assume that a detailed electrochemical model of his brain is sufficient to run the simulation, then you only need a Complexity 7 computer to run any IQ from 6 to 20. If you assume that a fine-grained model of each neuron's and glia's sub-cell behavior (with abstracted DNA effects, hormones, salt levels, and so on) is needed, a Complexity 8 computer is needed. And if you assume that atomic behavior is needed, including expected quantum effects, a Complexity 9 computer is needed.

There is no human brain on Earth that is complicated enough to require a higher Complexity.

It is probable that actual artificial intelligence will actually require a less powerful computer, because once we can see the sapience algorithms in action, we can cut out the biochemical middle-men.

These are not equations. These are just flat stats.

If you want an equation, that stays reasonably true to the balance intent of the equation in Ultra-Tech, then for a human mind emulation, that would be N + (IQx0.2), where N is 5 in a cinematic game, 6 in a fairly realistic game, and 7 in a game where every quantum fluctuation is important.

"x0.2" is essentially "x0.5" flattened sufficiently to approximate the Ultra-Tech Complexity progression. (A very rough approximation sets three Ultra-Tech Complexity equal to one Thinking Machines Complexity; 1/3 of 0.5 is reasonably close to 0.2.)

TL12 Computer Efficiency
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Originally Posted by Trachmyr View Post
This gives +1 Complexity to large computers and +2 to huge ones by TL11... with Genius and Causality options, it allows for a maximum complexity of 20. Does that surpass Optimistic and go fully into superscience? (Other than the Causality Option which is Superscience)
Short version: Yes-ish :-).

The longer version is that the superscience isn't too bad.

All of the large ones assume a lot of non-computational volume and mass is taken up by (at a minimum) thermal ducts and power sources. If you assume that (for example) collapsed matter can be made into a thermal superconductor, you can eliminate a lot of that mass. If you assume that M/AM plants are the order of the day (and conveniently ignore the planet-sized M/AM producing factory required for a skyscraper-sized computer), you can cram even more in. If thermal ducting and power sources and other infrastructure were not required:

Mainframe and Macroframe: Complexity 9 at TL11.
Megacomputer: Complexity 10 at TL11.
Skyscraper: Complexity 11 at TL11.
Living City: Complexity 12 at TL11.
Planetary Brain: Complexity 13 at TL11.
Jupiter Brain: Complexity 15 at TL11.
Shell Computer: Complexity 18 at TL11.

You could also assume that, at TL12, computation hits Bremermann's Limit. This is unlikely in the extreme (it's equivalent to saying your computer is a black hole, and that the small ones spray millions of dice of thermal waste into their surroundings), but you could then take the TL11 numbers (with the modifications above) and add +12 to them.

So... decide how optimistically supersciencey your TL11-12 thermal conductors are, put M/AM factories in the hearts of stars, and give them the numbers you want.

Blood Swarms and Neural Links
Blood swarms come with a built-in radio, so if you have a wireless neural link, you're golden. A non-radio neural link won't help you - the blood swarm can't communicate fast enough to be a useful network without radio.

Smartcell Blood Swarms
Hrm. You could do a Smartcell blood swarm, but... it would raise the host's temperature by something like 0.4+ degrees per core (most of the heat from the blood swarm is from the computer!), which is getting into feverish and sucky territory.

Cost would be approximately similar to the Smart Mist, minus the cost of aerostats, and plus the cost of swimmers.

Dedicated Computer for an AI
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Originally Posted by Trachmyr View Post
Does it seem feasible to run an AI on a dedicated computer? (as in the Dedicated option). My assumption is that it could only run one specific AI, but would be possible.
Yes, absolutely! This is essentially what the human brain is.

Complexity 12 IQ 20 God-Like Beings
Thanks, lexington. That description made my evening.
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Old 11-23-2011, 03:12 AM   #27
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Default Re: Pyramid #3/37: Tech and Toys II

Seasong, Thank You very much... I will certainly be using your article in my future games! It was the reason I bought the issue in the first place and I am very happy with my decision. Looking foward to more stuff from you in the future!
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Old 11-23-2011, 03:30 AM   #28
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Default Re: Pyramid #3/37: Tech and Toys II

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First, thank you for commenting! I had to avoid software, because it ballooned into too-many-thousands of words.

For AI, as a cinematic option: 5+(IQx0.2) for a shadow mind emulation (Ultra-Tech, p. 220) seems like a good starting place. If you decide that every molecule is important, 6+(IQx0.2); if even the tiniest quantum fluctuation is important, 7+(IQx0.2). Volitional AI reduces this by -1; non-volitional by -2; and dedicated by -3.

With that said, it is very likely that AI (with any IQ comprehensible to humans!) will only require a Complexity 7 computer. Possibly less, if our brains are inefficient at producing intelligence.
Hmmmm. I'd actually worked out a Matrioshka Brain for a setting I'm working on, computed it's complexity and then tried to figure out how smart someone could be if they ran an AI on it, and they capped out in the 50s (which is crazy).

Running your numbers, I get the same values for an AI on a Matrioshka brain, so I'm satisfied with this addition. Shame it didn't make it into Pyramid.
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Old 11-23-2011, 04:53 AM   #29
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Default Re: Pyramid #3/37: Tech and Toys II

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Shame it didn't make it into Pyramid.
I left software out entirely, because I couldn't decide what to exclude and the article was already kind of long with just hardware, so the AI baby was thrown out with the bathwater. Sorry :-/
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Old 11-25-2011, 02:43 AM   #30
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Default Re: Pyramid #3/37: Tech and Toys II

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I left software out entirely, because I couldn't decide what to exclude and the article was already kind of long with just hardware, so the AI baby was thrown out with the bathwater. Sorry :-/
Well I can understand that.
I have to say that reading about your article in this thread is what convinced me to buy this issue. Do you have any plans to put out what you've come up with for software at some point in the future? I'd be very interested to see it.
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