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Old 12-27-2016, 06:18 PM   #2421
malloyd
 
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The interesting thing about this timeline is that this war pulls the US and the British Empire out of the Great Depression and leaves them with strong military's shortly before WW2, on the downside the US is much less likely to help Britain out and if the Japanese want to strike at the US for cutting off oil they'll have to attack the mainland.
This *is* World War 2. There is no way this happens any time after the American Civil War that it isn't at least as serious a war as either of OTLs World Wars.

Stage an Anglo-American war in the 1930s and it does not leave the OTL causes of WW2 anything like in place. At that point the world economy can just about be divided into three fairly equal segments - the British Empire, the United States, and everybody else on the planet put together. Nobody's economy comes through this unscathed even if the dueling giants let them sit out the actual fighting.
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Old 12-27-2016, 06:41 PM   #2422
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This *is* World War 2. There is no way this happens any time after the American Civil War that it isn't at least as serious a war as either of OTLs World Wars.

Stage an Anglo-American war in the 1930s and it does not leave the OTL causes of WW2 anything like in place. At that point the world economy can just about be divided into three fairly equal segments - the British Empire, the United States, and everybody else on the planet put together. Nobody's economy comes through this unscathed even if the dueling giants let them sit out the actual fighting.
Seconded! If anything understated.
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Old 12-27-2016, 07:07 PM   #2423
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OK I recently watched this video the the US plan to invade Canada. Long story short for a long time the US has maintained plans to invade Canada, in part just in case and part to train people to make plans. During the inter-war years Canada had a plan to invade the US, but it was only to be used if the US looked like it was planing to invade Canada.
Frankly we probably still do. The number one job of a Military Planning Staff is to be ready for any contingency, and with the U.S. budget, we are probably the most prepared Government on Earth that isn't a military dictatorship.

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War Plan Red

In this timeline the US plans leaked, causing a war Between Canada and the rest of the British Empire and the US. When the war was over what where once the US border states where now Canadian provinces and the Empire had divested the US of all it's island territories.

The interesting thing about this timeline is that this war pulls the US and the British Empire out of the Great Depression and leaves them with strong military's shortly before WW2, on the downside the US is much less likely to help Britain out and if the Japanese want to strike at the US for cutting off oil they'll have to attack the mainland.
Unlikely, before the Washington Naval Treaties, the U.S. was posed to significantly out produce the British Empire in Naval units, and could already match the U.K. in modern Battleships, while the U.K. still had more, most were older designs that had significant hours of use on them from WW I. Given the advantages of fighting close to home, the U.S. would be able to blockade Canada. On it's own, Canada would not have the man power, or the industrial base to stop the U.S., and has not since the U.S. Civil War. While most of the various islands around the world would likely fall to U.K. forces the Philippines and Hawaiian islands were already heavily manned, and equipped so as to not fall easily, and getting Hawaii back would determine how much of Canada remained free. Given the Monroe Doctrine the U.S. would very likely get Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands back. On the other hand the U.S. may be willing to let the Western Pacific go.

World War II will be very ugly here, after a serious war over Canada, the U.S. will be very unlikely to help the U.K. vs. the Germans, this combined with the loss of manpower and resources from Canada will very likely lead to a negotiated peace between Germany and the U.K. after Dunkirk. Of course a U.K. on recent war footing vs. the U.S. may be willing to invade Germany over Czechoslovakia in 1938, ending WW II before it starts in Europe.

The Pacific War may not happen either, with a complacent U.K. Japan may get enough oil from the Middle East that they will not need to go south. If Germany wins early in Western Europe, Japan will be more likely to at least look more seriously at invading Russia. A defeated Germany, with greater attention on Japan would likely slow Japans expansion. A Japan that stops and develops Korea and Manchuria farther than they did in our history will very likely move Japan into true great power status.

Edit:
As malloyd and Astromancer state, this would be WW II, my statements about our WW II should read as WW III.
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Last edited by adm; 12-27-2016 at 07:11 PM. Reason: malloyd and Astromancer posted while I was typing, I have added to the original post.
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Old 12-27-2016, 07:28 PM   #2424
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adm, the plan Canada had that was mentioned in that video was basically a surprise attack, there likely would be much of a warning troops started marching across the border and navel bases are attacked.

Now that I think about it Pearl Harbor probably happens in this timeline, expect it's done by Australia and New Zealand as part of taking possession of Hawaii.

As for WW2, you might end up with the weird situation of Britain being distracted else where but Germany negotiating a truce because they don't want a wart with Britain.
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Old 12-27-2016, 08:14 PM   #2425
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adm, the plan Canada had that was mentioned in that video was basically a surprise attack, there likely would be much of a warning troops started marching across the border and navel bases are attacked.
In 1920, the State of New York had a 25% greater population than the Nation of Canada. There is no significant motorization or mechanization of the Canadian military at this time. Nor does the U.S. military have any significant motorization or mechanization for that matter, but they are fighting on home terrain and moving towards their bases. Canada has neither the population, nor the industrial base to pull this off.

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Now that I think about it Pearl Harbor probably happens in this timeline, expect it's done by Australia and New Zealand as part of taking possession of Hawaii.
Keep in mind that Australia and New Zealand is 4,600 miles (7412 km) away. That is a very long way to pull off an invasion for 1920's tech, especially with the closer Philippine Islands basing the U.S. Asiatic Squadron. By the time this could be planned and carried out, the war is likely over. Also note that their are no useful aircraft carriers at this time, thus no surprise air attack.

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As for WW2, you might end up with the weird situation of Britain being distracted else where but Germany negotiating a truce because they don't want a wart with Britain.
A Hitler that takes Munich seriously could lead to an invasion of the U.S.S.R. with actual European support. That could lead to some interesting changes.
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Old 12-27-2016, 10:39 PM   #2426
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In 1920, the State of New York had a 25% greater population than the Nation of Canada. There is no significant motorization or mechanization of the Canadian military at this time. Nor does the U.S. military have any significant motorization or mechanization for that matter, but they are fighting on home terrain and moving towards their bases. Canada has neither the population, nor the industrial base to pull this off.
The US would be facing more then just Canada but also the rest of the Empire and while the number of British troops available for the first (surprise) wave might be limited, but it's still there and should be a factor in calculations, especially if the Royal Navy manages a repeat of 1812 and burns DC to the ground, which would really throw things for a loop in the US.

That's an understatement, I've seen video of a training exercise where they painted words like 'TANK' onto sheets and tied them to the sides of supply trucks. So we might be a large war fraught with bicycle infantry.

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Keep in mind that Australia and New Zealand is 4,600 miles (7412 km) away. That is a very long way to pull off an invasion for 1920's tech, especially with the closer Philippine Islands basing the U.S. Asiatic Squadron. By the time this could be planned and carried out, the war is likely over. Also note that their are no useful aircraft carriers at this time, thus no surprise air attack.
Same overall effect, destruction of the major US Naval presence in the Pacific.

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A Hitler that takes Munich seriously could lead to an invasion of the U.S.S.R. with actual European support. That could lead to some interesting changes.
This sort of thing, I wanted to make things different, which is why I had the US 'lose' the war and them not make up with the British.
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Old 12-28-2016, 01:55 AM   #2427
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The US would be facing more then just Canada but also the rest of the Empire and while the number of British troops available for the first (surprise) wave might be limited, but it's still there and should be a factor in calculations, especially if the Royal Navy manages a repeat of 1812 and burns DC to the ground, which would really throw things for a loop in the US.
What you're proposing is that Canada, pull off a surprise attack that cripples the US long enough for the British Empire to mobilize, sea lift, and bring to bear an invasion force capable of conquering a nation with a multiple of it's loyal population and land mass. Further, it has to be ready to do such, in a way that the US doesn't have cause to wonder why the Empire is going to be launching the largest sea lift operation in history. I'm not even sure how they get enough troops across the rivers into the US without causing a mobilization reaction.

Heck, even if they did win, can you even imagine the insurgency problem? You've got a historical context set aside what amounts to the greatest betrayal of the modern age, a quite reasonable expectation that the occupation can't hold and a well armed society with a bunch of war veterans still in their prime. The USA itself can't keep people from building bombs inside the USA. The Empire is already at war in Ireland at this time and even a US based insurgency could supply lots of weapons.

You've got to decimate the US prior to this invasion. Maybe a new flu epidemic or massive prior infiltration. Even then, I don't know how you occupy the place.
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Old 12-28-2016, 03:18 AM   #2428
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What you're proposing is that Canada, pull off a surprise attack that cripples the US long enough for the British Empire to mobilize, sea lift, and bring to bear an invasion force capable of conquering a nation with a multiple of it's loyal population and land mass. Further, it has to be ready to do such, in a way that the US doesn't have cause to wonder why the Empire is going to be launching the largest sea lift operation in history. I'm not even sure how they get enough troops across the rivers into the US without causing a mobilization reaction.
I was thinking the other members would get some warning, if not a lot, so it would be something of a concentrated effort.

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Heck, even if they did win, can you even imagine the insurgency problem? You've got a historical context set aside what amounts to the greatest betrayal of the modern age, a quite reasonable expectation that the occupation can't hold and a well armed society with a bunch of war veterans still in their prime. The USA itself can't keep people from building bombs inside the USA. The Empire is already at war in Ireland at this time and even a US based insurgency could supply lots of weapons.
I'd expect that there would be border fuzziness in the period immediately afterward, might see a lot of people displeased with things in the US moving north, lots of blacks and other minorities.

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You've got to decimate the US prior to this invasion. Maybe a new flu epidemic or massive prior infiltration. Even then, I don't know how you occupy the place.
The 1918 Spanish Flu maybe? Interestingly that video also mentioned all the times the US has tried to invade Canada in the past, included in the list where Irish-Americans crossing the border to make trouble for the British in support of Ireland, maybe that could serve as a divergence, causing problems for the US.
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Old 12-28-2016, 10:30 AM   #2429
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A late 1920's war between the US and the UK is an awesome setting for alternate history.

Things that need to happen:


The "Great Rapprochement" of 1985-1915 needs to be strangled. This probably means British opposition to the Spanish-American War, and a resulting building of hostilities.

Britain needs to feel militarily secure. This means no American involvement in the Great War, and a victory of maneuver rather than of attrition. You either need a major victory in the north sea that allows a near blockade of German ports (as opposed to the far blockade) the threat of amphibious landings, and extensive offshore bombardment, or you need a major tank breakthrough. Ideally, you have both.

World War I does need to happen. If you've got Germany vying for naval supremacy Britain can't afford to attack the US.

The motivation for this war is pretty much the same as world war I: attack your rising enemy before its too late.

A few notes about the war:


Japan will side with Britain. The drifting apart of the Japanese and British was a direct consequence of the British and the Americans drifting together. They will want the Philippines, and the British need allies in this war.

France, in the wake of WWI, is likely to stay neutral. In the sort of way the us was neutral at the start of both world wars. Britain will need a bread basket other than Canada, and France produces an agricultural surplus. They may eventually be provoked into the war on the British side.

Once one side gains an naval victory, opportunists will pop out of the wood work. If the British gain naval superiority, Mexico will join against the US. On the continent, this role will be played by Germany, and perhaps Italy.

We don't know if he have an imperial Russia or a USSR. The USSR is likely to join only to play the vulture vs. Japan and/or Europe. Imperial Russia is more of a wild card, though the desire to see the Japanese trounced may win out... or they may stick with their allies from the last war. In which case Britain's home fortunes are probably secure. They may grab Alaska. Likely enough they will deal with problems at home though.

Neither side will have the power to enact a proper naval blockade on the other. I can see submarines being a huge part of this war, but they will have to go quite some distance to get to the places that really matter. England is at a natural disadvantage in this war, as they have to import food to the island, and to really win the war they need to at least take back Canada.

How to start out Canada is a big question. You can certainly have a large prewar build-up, even stationing the bulk of your troops there. The difficulty is keeping them supplied with ammo (food might be doable -- Canada was and is a bread basket). In the early stages of the war the British are unlikely to have the naval superiority they need to run a logistical train from the home islands. Additionally, your wartime army (and theirs) will be several times larger than a peacetime army, so you can only build up so much. The British either have to quickly gain naval superiority, execute a quick victory against the US Eastern seaboard, or give up Canada in the short term.

The Philippines are doomed, at least in the short run. The US hasn't had them long, and they're in the heart of enemy territory. Hawaii is an interesting case. Its not a state at this point, so its entirely possibly it won't be a priority either.

The British are likely to start out with better military technology than the US. That may change as the war progresses, but at the start, the British will have won a modern war the US won't have even fought one.
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Old 12-28-2016, 10:52 AM   #2430
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Adding a possible wrinkle to the mix:

The Paris Peace Conference of 1919 gave Australia control over New Guinea and Nauru. Canadian Prime Minister Robert Borden argued that the same logic should be applied to make the British Caribbean (Bermuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos Islands, etc.) territories of Canada. In OTL, this did not happen.

If it did happen in this timeline, then the US has to worry about Canadian ports in the Caribbean as well as at Halifax and Montreal, which splits the attention of the US navy from the very beginning instead of waiting for the rest of the Commonwealth to join in the war.
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