March 25, 2018: Bruno Faidutti On The State Of The Game Industry

[RoboAdmin]

March 25, 2018: Bruno Faidutti On The State Of The Game Industry

Read this article on the Illuminator.

[johndallman]

It seems to me that we're seeing "the games market" splitting into several segments.

The boardgame market is as Brunoi describes, with a large number of games coming out, but very few of them becoming steady sellers. Manufacturers are trying to gain sales appeal through higher production values, but everyone can do that, so the games are nicer (and more expensive) but the nature of the market doesn't change.

This does suggest that low-cost boardgames with good gameplay and repeat playability could become a bigger segment. The risk there is of less money coming in, because good gameplay takes just as much work or inspiration, whatever the production values.

In RPGs, only a few publishers can rely on enough sales to justify regularly releasing hardcover books with high production values. The fragmentation of the D&D market, which retailers have to service to stay in business, hasn't helped the situation for other games, but there's a limited amount that can be done about that.

The PDF/POD market still seems to be working according to the long tail model, because of low distribution costs, no money tied up in inventory, and no need to ever go out of print.

Which suggests that a print-it-yourself boardgame market could emerge if there was a way of making home-printed game boards robust enough to use many times. Hmm...

[DouglasCole]

Originally Posted by johndallman

It seems to me that we're seeing "the games market" splitting into several segments.

In RPGs, only a few publishers can rely on enough sales to justify regularly releasing hardcover books with high production values. The fragmentation of the D&D market, which retailers have to service to stay in business, hasn't helped the situation for other games, but there's a limited amount that can be done about that.

Two comments here.

1) ONLY ONE publisher can really count on a continual hardback release these days, maybe two: WotC and Paizo . . .and as we've seen from the sales figures and product lineup of Paizo, even that doesn't last forever. Starfinder eclipsed Pathfinder in sales/games recently, and the 2e corebook re-launch suggests they feel a strong need to get on this side of half-dome, to borrow Andrew's phrase.

WotC seems to be the exception: their 5e core book sales INCREASED the fourth year of its release. Likely due to the synergy with video streaming.

2) At the prices the market demands, I'd say the limit is on large offset print runs, rather than high production values. I can get a 1,000-book high-quality 256-page hardback for $10-15 per book. At $10, that even fits into a distribution model. $15 requires a $75 cover price at the least, so is unlikely to go.

For those really curious about ballparks of offset print runs (as opposed to POD), a middle-ground instant quote generator can be found at PrintNinja. These are neither the best or the worst quotes out there.

The PDF/POD market still seems to be working according to the long tail model, because of low distribution costs, no money tied up in inventory, and no need to ever go out of print.

Long tail assumes folks are buying, though. I can ask my other industry folks that are bit players if they are seeing long-tail sales much anymore.

The key thing for me was more or less seeing the same conclusion as the Dungeon Fantasy RPG came to but mirrored in boardgames. Do not expect sales much beyond your Kickstarter. If you bottle lightning and score something exciting . . . it'll probably be reflected in your Kickstarter.

That's not universally true! But it seems to be the right way to plan. Hell, "We're going to Kickstart a second print run of X. We require $X/Y backers in order to do it, and that's our goal" might be the right "long tail/out-of-print" strategy, which is basically using KS as a pre-order program. They might not like that, though it's a fantastic method of doing it.

[Steve Jackson]

I have seen second print runs successfully financed on KS.

[wolf90]

Right or wrong, Kickstarter is becoming/has become a platform for companies to gauge the interest (and in turn, profitability,) of a product prior to release. It still maintains its "market entry" appeal for new or upstart producers, but seems to be evolving into "market analysis" for well-established companies too.

I don't think this is a bad thing. By giving companies a medium to understand the market for a potential product prior to release, that company becomes more efficient and can devote resources to those ideas that are generating buzz, rather than simply making something and putting it out there to an uncertain response.

D.

[lachimba]

Its a weird time that we live in.

[DouglasCole]

Originally Posted by Steve Jackson

I have seen second print runs successfully financed on KS.

Excellent. Wasn’t sure how strictly they were interpreting the “must create something” provision

[lachimba]

Originally Posted by Steve Jackson

I have seen second print runs successfully financed on KS.

Gloomhaven, 7th Continent, at the moment Dinosaur Island and so on.

[ColBosch]

Originally Posted by wolf90

I don't think this is a bad thing. By giving companies a medium to understand the market for a potential product prior to release, that company becomes more efficient and can devote resources to those ideas that are generating buzz, rather than simply making something and putting it out there to an uncertain response.

I strongly agree. I am baffled by the folks who claim that established companies shouldn't be using Kickstarter.