09-12-2019, 10:46 AM | #11 |
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Gothenburg, Sweden
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Re: Realistic STL Interstellar Missions
Well, you can't always get what you want. Sometimes space is interesting. Sometimes it's terrifying. See my signature for Q's take on space.
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“When you arise in the morning think of what a privilege it is to be alive, to think, to enjoy, to love ...” Marcus Aurelius |
09-12-2019, 11:16 AM | #12 | |
Join Date: Jun 2013
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Re: Realistic STL Interstellar Missions
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09-12-2019, 01:22 PM | #13 |
Join Date: Feb 2016
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Re: Realistic STL Interstellar Missions
Technological innovation in the physical sciences tends to suffer from diminishing returns as the low hanging fruit is plucked by the first generation of researchers and engineers. For example, no one has exceeded the air flight speed record in 15 years, and the manned flight speed record has not been exceeded in over 40 years. The human speed record was set in 1969 by Apollo 10, and no one has gotten within 2 km/s in over 40 years.
When it comes to STL interstellar travel, I do not believe that there will be an economic incentive for the investment required to exceed 0.05c. For example, you could likely send colony expeditions at 0.05c to every system within 50 ly for the cost of developing a 0.10c technology, especially if you have suspended animation. Instead, societies would monitor the colonies from a distance and only launch a new colony mission if they found evidence of a failure. Of course, it would be relatively easy for a spacecraft to divert when 1+ ly from Earth in order to go to another system. Unless the governments of Earth were willing to waste resources to monitor a spacecraft on a ballistic trajectory, most people would assume a tragedy had occurred when they do not find evidence of the new colony a few years or decades after it was supposed to arrive (light lag is always annoying). Lost colonies will probably be a popular theory concerning missing colony missions. |
09-12-2019, 01:35 PM | #14 | |
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Berkeley, CA
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Re: Realistic STL Interstellar Missions
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Incidentally, interstellar ramscoops are not realistic, they're in the category of "sounds good on first look, but the math doesn't work". The drag from the scoop exceeds the thrust of the rocket it's feeding. This has less to do with 'impossible' than 'pointless'. |
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09-12-2019, 01:44 PM | #15 |
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Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: far from the ocean
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Re: Realistic STL Interstellar Missions
Its also worth considering just how large a "system" is. Even if someone gets there before you, It would take a very large group to completely fill up the place you're heading for. And you really shouldn't expect to have the whole planet to yourself in perpetuity anyways.
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09-12-2019, 01:48 PM | #16 |
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Indianapolis, IN
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Re: Realistic STL Interstellar Missions
It is not just FTL - being able to safely do .5c beats the people that left 200 years ago doing .05c. Those early adopters are actually betting that technology stops and no one will jump their claim. Given our track record on advancing sciences (Look at aerospace - barely off the ground to in orbit in less than 100 years) that is not a great bet.
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Joseph Paul |
09-12-2019, 02:00 PM | #17 | |
Join Date: Dec 2007
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Re: Realistic STL Interstellar Missions
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09-12-2019, 02:15 PM | #18 | |
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Berkeley, CA
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Re: Realistic STL Interstellar Missions
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09-12-2019, 02:40 PM | #19 | |
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Indianapolis, IN
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Re: Realistic STL Interstellar Missions
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What is the incentive for anyone to stay alert for the progress of ships that left 2-10 centuries ago? Will the government/civilization that spawned that colonizing effort even exist? At STL speeds there is no real hope for trade so what is the use of tracking anything? I think that the underlying assumption that extra-solar colonization will be governed by a system wide apparatus is shaky at best. Who cares if more than one group sets out for a destination? Does a group seeking to leave the solar system need approval? The answer - either way - has an awful lot of assumptions about the future in it.
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Joseph Paul |
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09-12-2019, 02:44 PM | #20 |
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Gothenburg, Sweden
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Re: Realistic STL Interstellar Missions
You may also have people who set out because of persecution or religious or ideological zeal. They may feel there's no time to wait for better technology.
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“When you arise in the morning think of what a privilege it is to be alive, to think, to enjoy, to love ...” Marcus Aurelius |
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