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Old 07-14-2018, 03:00 PM   #1
RobW
 
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Join Date: Mar 2018
Default Quick simulation of UC rules

In the Advanced Combat Skills thread, Steve suggested we could help in the form of simulations. I did a simulated round-robin tournament comparing a UC V beginning figure and some other "basic" fighters. The fighters just run up and bash each other 1000 times and win rate is recorded. For simplicity the other fighters were IQ 8, ST+DX = 24, unarmored, with appropriate sword weapon for ST, one-handed weapons included a small shield. The UC.V fighter is ST 8 DX 12 IQ 12, he kicks for 4d-4 damage. He is -3 to hit and damage to him reduced by 4. I am actually hoping I have done this incorrectly, so do let me know.

The table below gives the results. Rows give the win rates for the figure against the different foes. Columns therefore give the loss rates against the different foes. Sorry for the bad formatting, but the results are striking. UC.V beginning figure wins 92%-99% of the time against these other beginning figures.


.... .ST09 .ST10 .ST11 .ST12 .ST13 .ST14 .ST15 .UC.V
ST09 ----- 0.283 0.186 0.150 0.172 0.321 0.378 0.011
ST10 0.726 ----- 0.441 0.392 0.395 0.521 0.569 0.033
ST11 0.836 0.571 ----- 0.518 0.492 0.613 0.623 0.068
ST12 0.842 0.606 0.490 ----- 0.538 0.630 0.668 0.077
ST13 0.829 0.589 0.500 0.462 ----- 0.624 0.649 0.081
ST14 0.672 0.482 0.404 0.374 0.406 ----- 0.613 0.057
ST15 0.591 0.424 0.356 0.314 0.301 0.387 ----- 0.041
UC.V 0.996 0.967 0.933 0.927 0.925 0.939 0.952 -----

Last edited by RobW; 07-14-2018 at 04:35 PM. Reason: corrected table (no impact on conclusions)
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Old 07-14-2018, 03:08 PM   #2
Rick_Smith
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Coquitlam B.C.
Default Re: Quick simulation of UC rules

Quote:
Originally Posted by RobW View Post
... I did a simulated round-robin tournament comparing a UC V beginning figure and some other "basic" fighters. ...
Hi RobW.
Many thanks. This work is worthy of careful study.

Warm regards, Rick
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Old 07-14-2018, 03:33 PM   #3
larsdangly
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Default Re: Quick simulation of UC rules

I have a similar program I can run; I haven't done so yet, but I have done this sort of thing enough to find your results totally believable. If the rules as suggested end up as canon there really won't be any viable starting fighter besides a ST 8 martial artist with UC V. That can't possibly be the intent, so hopefully we'll see some revisions!
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Old 07-14-2018, 03:38 PM   #4
Steve Jackson
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Default Re: Quick simulation of UC rules

Have already nerfed the UC stuff a bit, but I still have pages of comments to read through before I post anything new.

Note also, for what it's worth, that the UC fighter is a specialist in fighting humanoids, up close. If I had to upset a party of TFT martial artists, I would plague them with archers, rats, and maybe a giant or two.
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Old 07-14-2018, 03:45 PM   #5
Chris Rice
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: London Uk, but originally from Scotland
Default Re: Quick simulation of UC rules

Quote:
Originally Posted by RobW View Post
In the Advanced Combat Skills thread, Steve suggested we could help in the form of simulations. I did a simulated round-robin tournament comparing a UC V beginning figure and some other "basic" fighters. The fighters just run up and bash each other 1000 times and win rate is recorded. For simplicity the other fighters were IQ 8, ST+DX = 24, unarmored, with appropriate sword weapon for ST, one-handed weapons included a small shield. The UC.V fighter is ST 8 DX 12 IQ 12, he kicks for 4d-4 damage. He is -3 to hit and damage to him reduced by 4. I am actually hoping I have done this incorrectly, so do let me know.

The table below gives the results. Rows give the win rates for the figure against the different foes. Columns therefore give the loss rates against the different foes. Sorry for the bad formatting, but the results are striking. UC.V beginning figure wins 92%-98% of the time against these other beginning figures.


.... ..ST09 ..ST10 ..ST11 ..ST12 ..ST13 ..ST14 ..ST15 ..UC.V
ST09 ------ 0.3983 0.3703 0.4111 0.4063 0.6070 0.6102 0.0159
ST10 0.6070 ------ 0.5045 0.5112 0.5430 0.6444 0.7083 0.0596
ST11 0.6259 0.4906 ------ 0.5307 0.5505 0.6847 0.6854 0.0717
ST12 0.5982 0.4967 0.4664 ------ 0.5593 0.6504 0.6959 0.0790
ST13 0.6071 0.4578 0.4405 0.4574 ------ 0.6206 0.6748 0.0771
ST14 0.3867 0.3630 0.3262 0.3494 0.3691 ------ 0.6167 0.0649
ST15 0.3810 0.2955 0.3078 0.2907 0.3225 0.3832 ------ 0.0498
UC.V 0.9836 0.9380 0.9266 0.9242 0.9278 0.9428 0.9504 ------
I was pretty certain the proposals were overpowered, but that's insane!! Good work though and a very useful tool.
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Old 07-14-2018, 03:49 PM   #6
tomc
 
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Carrboro, NC
Default Re: Quick simulation of UC rules

Well, that is what you'd expect a Master of the Martial Arts to do to a starting character. But it would take a heckuva backstory for me to believe a starting character is already a Master.

I'd make them more expensive somehow.

Edited to ask: For kick damage, does "do one extra die of damage compared to your bare-hands attack" refer to the bare-hands attack including the UC bonus? Maybe it should be a bonus based on ST which doesn't stack with the bare hands damage bonus.
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Last edited by tomc; 07-14-2018 at 03:52 PM.
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Old 07-14-2018, 03:57 PM   #7
JLV
 
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Location: Far northern California
Default Re: Quick simulation of UC rules

I'd say the simplest solution to the problem is to nerf the kick and nerve strike a bit, and raise the DX requirements for the higher levels of UC (say, UC IV and V).
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Old 07-14-2018, 05:06 PM   #8
Skarg
 
Join Date: May 2015
Default Re: Quick simulation of UC rules

Of course he wins 90+ % of the time. He does 4d-4 (average 10, only 1/2 point short of a ST 15 battleaxe) damage at DX 12, soaks as much as if he's wearing half plate, and is at -3 to be hit.

I don't know why it wasn't immediately obvious to everyone that the kicking rules were off the charts.

He's about on par with an olde-TFT character with ST 15 DX 17(12) IQ 8, Battleaxe, Half Plate AND a -3DX Blur spell cast on him, but 7 points of fatigue. Only he's also MA 10, not to mention he will also beat youl you in HTH and can toss you there, etc...

I.e. He's a like a fully armed/armored 40-point character with a magic spell on him. Anyone still surprised?
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Old 07-14-2018, 05:10 PM   #9
Rick_Smith
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Coquitlam B.C.
Default Re: Quick simulation of UC rules

Quote:
Originally Posted by Skarg View Post
Of course he wins 90+ % of the time. ...

I don't know why it wasn't immediately obvious to everyone that the kicking rules were off the charts. ...
Hi Skarg,
It WAS obvious to us.

Rick
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Old 07-14-2018, 05:16 PM   #10
Skarg
 
Join Date: May 2015
Default Re: Quick simulation of UC rules

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick_Smith View Post
It WAS obvious to us.
Not to everyone, judging by it being posted, and quite a few responses not mentioning noticing anything amiss. There's a heat wave here, so it was all feeling a bit Twilight-Zone-like to me.
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