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Old 11-11-2019, 03:09 PM   #4441
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Default Re: New Reality Seeds

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Originally Posted by Prince Charon View Post
They'd really be better off negotiating a surrender (as the unconditional surrender ultimatum was probably butterflied here), but they might not realize that soon enough.
The Japanese were trying to negotiate a surrender, hoping for a Soviet mediation to end the war around late June 1945. That's obviously of no use in this timeline, but the intent could remain. Overtures could plausibly through Sweden, Switzerland, or the Vatican, but Japan and the West would probably be far apart to begin with. The Russian bulldozer hitting France would make it easier for the Japanese to get their way.

--

I honestly don't think that Centrum would be too upset with a UN led by Britain and America policing the world, even if decolonization speeds along as fast as it did in our timeline.
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Old 11-11-2019, 05:19 PM   #4442
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sWas Patton's death butterflied away? If Patton is still alive (and cackling "See? I Told You So!"), then he's likely to be considered Truman's successor as president. And Patton was not as much a politician as one might think a general should be. In fact, he would likely be unelectable and help sweep a more conservative faction into power.

The point being, the mere fact that the USSR would be gone doesn't guarantee a more liberal-leaning future.
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Old 11-11-2019, 07:13 PM   #4443
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How does Stalin take Gibraltar? He'd have to take Spain and that's hard with all the mountains. Franco didn't make a deal with Hitler because he knew that Spain's internal transport net depends on shipping stuff from one port to another and then sending it inland locally via the roads and railroads in that ports connected valleys. Cut off shipping which the UK can easily do and the population runs short on fuel and such fast.

I can see the war in the Pacific being put even more on the backburner but unless Japan makes a offer much better then they were thinking of in our history I don't see it being accepted. By 45 we had already landed in the Philippines and I don't see that being abandoned. Pull some of the subs to hit Soviet coastal shipping in the Baltic, North Sea area maybe. No more operations started with troops maybe so Burma is out. Just keep the subs cutting off all Japanese shipping and keep starving them of resources.
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Old 11-11-2019, 08:29 PM   #4444
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How does Stalin take Gibraltar? He'd have to take Spain and that's hard with all the mountains. Franco didn't make a deal with Hitler because he knew that Spain's internal transport net depends on shipping stuff from one port to another and then sending it inland locally via the roads and railroads in that ports connected valleys. Cut off shipping which the UK can easily do and the population runs short on fuel and such fast.

I can see the war in the Pacific being put even more on the backburner but unless Japan makes a offer much better then they were thinking of in our history I don't see it being accepted. By 45 we had already landed in the Philippines and I don't see that being abandoned. Pull some of the subs to hit Soviet coastal shipping in the Baltic, North Sea area maybe. No more operations started with troops maybe so Burma is out. Just keep the subs cutting off all Japanese shipping and keep starving them of resources.
The Soviets plow through Spain, messy, but doable.

Truman in this world isn't willing to back down and leave a totalitarian power intact.
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Old 11-13-2019, 02:18 PM   #4445
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Could the Japanese effectively offer the Americans their islands as a base from which to attack Pacific Russia? The actual offer wouldn't be much different from what was agreed IRL, to keep the Emperor, maybe not arrest as many wartime leaders, maybe even ask to keep their armed forces - to use against the USSR.

Officially, it would still be "unconditional surrender" to Allied audiences, but privately the Americans wouldn't totally disarm Japan.

This could bring about a second front against the Soviets, American forces that were gearing up to invade Tokyo instead moving on Vladivostok, fighting Korean & Chinese communists.


USSR making it all the way to Gibraltar, through Poland, Germany, France, and Spain seems a stretch - but maybe they had domestic help? There were a lot of French communists who said they'd welcome the Red Army, and the Catalans at least would welcome liberation by their old Russian allies.

Though conquering Gibraltar still seems hard - the Spanish never could in real life, and the British had fortified it greatly during WWII. Maybe just blockade it, bomb it, essentially cripple it - and thus Allied shipping in the Mediterranean.


What was the status of the USSR's Black Sea fleet at this point? Could it have moved into the Mediterranean? There would be the issue of Turkey, which would be terrified by the Soviet advance in Europe and probably jump at the chance to join the Allies.


And the British & Americans would still be in north Africa & Italy. Possibly cut off from the Atlantic, but not directly attacked by the Soviets. Maybe whatever was left of the Italian fascist government in north Italy would try to give themselves over to the Allies, for the Allies to now attack the 'soft underbelly' of the Soviet advance.
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Old 11-13-2019, 03:09 PM   #4446
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Centrum wants to prevent total Soviet defeat. The collapse of all totalitarian powers and a world rebuilt on New Deal idealism isn't going to be advantageous to them. The extra damage the UK has taken in this world will only speed the collapse of the British Empire no matter whether the US or the USSR wins.

Homeline sees a world rebuilt along lines of New Deal idealism with no totalitarian powers as a world were Centrum doesn't have easy targets. A quicker fall to colonial empires would make it even harder on Centrum.
I'm not quite buying that. Centrum is patient, likes English, Likes world Hegomonies, and has a highly idealistic streak of its own. Its probably busy encouraging the "Crush Authoritarian Rivals" streak, dampening the "Rule by Vote" streak, trying to keep the last war from going down for reals, working hard to encourage the US and UK to enter a lasting political union, and encouraging the ideals of equality.
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Old 11-16-2019, 01:23 PM   #4447
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Try this one...

The Scramble for Africa happened when it did because of technological factors. France, Spain, Portugal, Britain, and the Dutch, wanted to divide Africa among them long before the late 19th century. The disease climate in Africa, "Fear, Oh Fear the Blight of Benin/ One comes out for ten that go in," reversed the European experience of the Americas. And the African tribes were tough unified and politically sophisticated. But allow the Europeans an effective means of protecting themselves from disease in the late 17th century. Spain and Portugal were well ahead, but France, Britain, Sweden, and the Dutch, would have all wanted colonies.

This leads to an interesting game. Although Africa was way behind Europe technologically (climate, crops, and transport conditions were against them ...HARD) the African tribes were tough, cagey, knew their territory, and skilled warriors and generals. The two sides in the 17th century would be something like a fair fight. This would be an exciting exotic Swashers campaign.
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Old 11-16-2019, 06:02 PM   #4448
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Originally Posted by TGLS View Post
The Japanese were trying to negotiate a surrender, hoping for a Soviet mediation to end the war around late June 1945. That's obviously of no use in this timeline, but the intent could remain. Overtures could plausibly through Sweden, Switzerland, or the Vatican, but Japan and the West would probably be far apart to begin with. The Russian bulldozer hitting France would make it easier for the Japanese to get their way.
I am wondering if I should grab off this to retrofit my "Still Militarized Japan in the 21st Century" idea.
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Old 11-16-2019, 07:50 PM   #4449
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I am wondering if I should grab off this to retrofit my "Still Militarized Japan in the 21st Century" idea.
The answer is yes. I knew that magic 8 ball was a good idea.
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Old 11-17-2019, 06:40 AM   #4450
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[Europeans vs Africans] in the 17th century would be something like a fair fight. This would be an exciting exotic Swashers campaign.
Oh... noice.

Must admit to thinking about the potential of giving this setting a MH flavour, but.
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