Probability of THS scenario - in light of the last 10 years

antares · 04-12-2012, 01:14 AM

Hi guys,
recently I got to know THS and I am really fascinated. Looks like all transhumanists have been working together in order to develop a realistic depiction of the future.

I am wondering how realistic the positive scenario that is presented in this rpg really is. I hope I do not repeat a discussion that has been conducted over and over again. I am really curious about your thoughts.

In principle I regard most assumptions of THS as being rather realistic. However I have the following concerns that I do not see covered in the books. Most concerns touch on economic/financial issues.

- Europe is being shown as a very well-off power bloc. However THS also acknowledges the fact that Europe was and is rather conservative on emerging technologies (think about GMOs). So is the assumption of a strong Europe really realistic?

- Somewhere I read that big corporations still hire a lot of "cheap" labor from developing countries. Something that is has also been driving globalization over the last years. Again, is it realistic that high-cost countries fare so well?

- Public debt and the non-sustainability of the warfare state (US) and the welfare-state (EU) - i.e. the current problems are not treated. Of course I can see that in the long run nanoprocessing will enable a generous welfare state. Still, there is still global competition on taxes.

- Similarly there is a problem with pension systems

- bitcoin is not mentioned at all;)

- How do financial markets work in general? Any changes here?

- With respect to technology. How does space travel work? I do not see an economical way to get into orbit. How has this problem been solved?

Final question: How would you rewrite the THS timeline ten years after you initially designed the RPG?

04-12-2012, 01:14 AM	#1
antares Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Germany	Probability of THS scenario - in light of the last 10 years Hi guys, recently I got to know THS and I am really fascinated. Looks like all transhumanists have been working together in order to develop a realistic depiction of the future. I am wondering how realistic the positive scenario that is presented in this rpg really is. I hope I do not repeat a discussion that has been conducted over and over again. I am really curious about your thoughts. In principle I regard most assumptions of THS as being rather realistic. However I have the following concerns that I do not see covered in the books. Most concerns touch on economic/financial issues. - Europe is being shown as a very well-off power bloc. However THS also acknowledges the fact that Europe was and is rather conservative on emerging technologies (think about GMOs). So is the assumption of a strong Europe really realistic? - Somewhere I read that big corporations still hire a lot of "cheap" labor from developing countries. Something that is has also been driving globalization over the last years. Again, is it realistic that high-cost countries fare so well? - Public debt and the non-sustainability of the warfare state (US) and the welfare-state (EU) - i.e. the current problems are not treated. Of course I can see that in the long run nanoprocessing will enable a generous welfare state. Still, there is still global competition on taxes. - Similarly there is a problem with pension systems - bitcoin is not mentioned at all;) - How do financial markets work in general? Any changes here? - With respect to technology. How does space travel work? I do not see an economical way to get into orbit. How has this problem been solved? Final question: How would you rewrite the THS timeline ten years after you initially designed the RPG?